Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

Michael Gove says UK doesn’t need EU ventilator scheme as ‘an independent nation’ https://theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/michael-gove-on-coronavirus-ventilators-1-6584046
My response
If we follow Goves policy there will be so few of us left there will be enough ventilators to go round

 

[Danidl]

This dated March 26th

Here is the latest research on deaths from #coronavirus both in the UK and elsewhere. This is by statisticians including @TomPike00075908 of @imperialcollege who I have spoken to. The key figures are circled. UK deaths estimated to TOTAL 5,700. Peak day will be April 5th with 260

The trajectory for < 6000 had a peak of 260 deaths on April 5th. Sadly 260 was hit yesterday; there is no suggestion that this is likely to be the peak

My response

The only mathematician I have ever had a great respect for was Tom Lehrer

The major flaw in that analysis, is that China was able to lock down 11million and mobilization of resources from a population base of 1000 million . So if they managed their 4% mortality , it does not follow that other countries can do the same.

 

[oldgroaner]

The idiot fringe makes a comment

John Longworth

@john4brexit
· 12h
Many of the measures we have taken re COVID 19 are not permitted by the EU - border control, state aid including tax, removal of precautionary principle re drugs and equipment. Plus the EU is financially a busted flush now. Thank goodness for Brexit

My response
If your comment wasn't made in jest, please accept my condolences

 

[oyster]

The idiot fringe makes a comment

John Longworth

@john4brexit
· 12h
Many of the measures we have taken re COVID 19 are not permitted by the EU - border control, state aid including tax, removal of precautionary principle re drugs and equipment. Plus the EU is financially a busted flush now. Thank goodness for Brexit

My response
If your comment wasn't made in jest, please accept my condolences

Brexit really helped, didn't it?

The UK has been rated as one of the most prepared nations in the world, and some experts have said the coronavirus outbreak would have overwhelmed any government. However, a 2019 parliamentary inquiry into biological security was postponed and then cancelled because MPs were focused on Brexit and then the December general election.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/29/uk-strategy-to-address-pandemic-threat-not-properly-implemented

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

Back to brexit. Seems the figures are showing a substantial number who voted for brexit disagreeing with government no-delay.

Two-thirds of people in UK want Brexit transition extension - poll

Polling commissioned by the cross-party campaign group Best for Britain and anti-racism group Hope Not Hate has suggested that almost two-thirds of people in the UK want the government to request an extension to the Brexit transition period in order to focus on the coronavirus outbreak.
The Focaldata poll of 2,022 people showed 64% of people agreed with the statement “The government should request an extension to the transition period in order to focus properly on the coronavirus’, while 36% agreed with the statement “The Brexit transition period must end on 31 December whether a deal has been fixed or not”.
Best for Britain’s call for an extension to the transition period has been echoed by numerous bodies and pressure groups, including the Scottish and Welsh governments.
The same poll also found that 65% of people wished the government to seek membership of the EU early warning and response system for medical emergencies, amid reported reluctance within No 10 to remain a member.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/29/uk-coronavirus-live-mass-testing-lockdown-boris-johnson-covid-19-latest

The word Brexit shouldn’t even be spoken until the virus mess is fixed.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

Let us see how this one pans out:

Ventilator Challenge UK to start production in Covid-19 fight

Consortium of British manufacturers called on to help produce 10,000 machines

Continuous as the stars that shine
And twinkle on the milky way,
They stretched in never-ending line
Along the margin of a bay:
Ten thousand saw I at a glance,
Tossing their heads in sprightly dance.

Not quite sure those ventilators should be tossing their heads, but.. And they do need to get from the bay to the ward.

I'd like to think we will see actual details every day.

They’ve been saying this for weeks, F1, Rolls Royce Aero, Pro-Drive, Dyson, G-Tech. What’s happened? Fuckall.

 

[flecc]

Speaking of keeping isolated:

Video link
.

 

[sjpt]

This Conservative Government has to go, they are presiding over a disaster

Actually, they are presiding over two disasters, though the one that seemed so serious before has rather dwindled in relative importance recently. (probably more than two disasters, but two obvious ones)

Sadly, the are also presiding over a large majority.

 

[sjpt]

The only mathematician I have ever had a great respect for was Tom Lehrer

I was thinking yesterday that he would have made a very amusing (is that the right word?) song on Covid-19.

 

[sjpt]

The major flaw in that analysis, is that China was able to lock down 11million and mobilization of resources from a population base of 1000 million . So if they managed their 4% mortality , it does not follow that other countries can do the same.

Absolutely.

The 5700 total deaths paper was NOT by Professor Ferguson , even though it was by others from Imperial.

As Danidl points out, the 5700 paper was based on clearly suspect assumptions;
and as oldgroaner pointed in the in first post on that paper, it has already been proved wrong.

Sadly, the 20,000 still looks like the most hopeful scenario ... given the instability of modelling and the nature of exponential growth 5,700 and 20,000 aren't that far apart, though it won't seem that way to the families of the 14,300.

5,700 might be a good estimate of what could have happened had the government acted more quickly.

p.s. report at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf
Report itself dated as 'revised 24/4/2020'

 

[oldgroaner]

Help is on the way

 

[oyster]

The idiot fringe makes a comment

John Longworth

@john4brexit
· 12h
Many of the measures we have taken re COVID 19 are not permitted by the EU - border control, state aid including tax, removal of precautionary principle re drugs and equipment. Plus the EU is financially a busted flush now. Thank goodness for Brexit

My response
If your comment wasn't made in jest, please accept my condolences

So far as I am aware, fining people for being out of their houses and effectively banning people from visiting the next county were not allowed by UK law...

 

[oyster]

I was thinking yesterday that he would have made a very amusing (is that the right word?) song on Covid-19.

Something like...

 

[flecc]

So far as I am aware, fining people for being out of their houses and effectively banning people from visiting the next county were not allowed by UK law...

They use the old excuse though, "Special Powers".
.

 

[oldgroaner]

Something like...

Now that is talent!

 

[oldgroaner]

My reply
oldgroaner@oldgroaner
No he's more like Shultz out of Hogans Heros


Mind you that could equally be Gove....

 

[oldgroaner]

LBC News

@LBCNews
·
1h
Watch: Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick is set to lead the government's daily press conference on the #Coronavirus outbreak. #CoronaLockdownUK | #SocialDistancing https://pscp.tv/10DowningStreet/1PlKQmZlRLMKE…


Replying to @LBCNews and @LBC


Who knows it could be your turn next week, it's getting like jury service

 

[Wicky]

Some sections of society will struggle to survive for 3+ months without serious debt

UK lockdown 'could last until June'

Tough measures to tackle the outbreak in the UK have been in force for nearly a week - but a leading government adviser has warned they may need to remain in place until June.

Imperial College London Professor Neil Ferguson told the Sunday Times: “We’re going to have to keep these measures (the full lockdown) in place, in my view, for a significant period of time – probably until the end of May, maybe even early June.”

He added that even if the lockdown was lifted, people would probably still need to abide by social distancing measures for months to come.

 

[oldgroaner]

This guy has style!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-thailand-king-maha-vajiralongkorn-grand-hotel-sonnebichl-germany-a9431936.html

Coronavirus: Thai king self-isolates in Alpine hotel with harem of 20 women amid pandemic

Boris must be seriously miffed to be upstaged as much as this, do you think he is allowed to go out once a day to exercise?

 

[oldgroaner]

Actually, they are presiding over two disasters, though the one that seemed so serious before has rather dwindled in relative importance recently. (probably more than two disasters, but two obvious ones)

Sadly, the are also presiding over a large majority.

That makes it three