Brexit, for once some facts.

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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+++++++breaking news+++++

+++++++++++G unit has learned a new word+++++++++++

+++++++breaking news+++++

+++++++++++G unit has learned a new word+++++++++++

+++++++breaking news+++++

+++++++++++G unit has learned a new word+++++++++++

+++++++breaking news+++++

+++++++++++G unit has learned a new word+++++++++++

Will whataboutery usurp his also incorrectly used phrase 'click bait' or will he use it properly?

A million people are on tenterhooks!! or the 15 that post on here plus Rob of course.

So far so bad but I have hopes. I am after all an optimist.

Apologies, I thought even you would have seen that word elsewhere, but not to worry I shall stick to short words you have a chance to understand ,after all we don't want you to keep making an ass of yourself as you just did do we?
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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A million people are on tenterhooks!! or the 15 that post on here plus Rob of course.
You might be surprised by how many pop in from time to time.

In addition to some of the current regulars, a quick scan of the first 10 pages of the thread reveals these 18 posters:

Trex, Flud, lectureral, Kenny, Croxden, d8veh, d8ve, cosybike, damian, derf, HelenJ, Mike Killay, martx007, Gubbins, KTM, the_killjoy, BrendanJ, timidtom.

There are very many more in the remaining 2086 pages if you care to check.
.
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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You might be surprised by how many pop in from time to time.

In addition to some of the current regulars, a quick scan of the first 10 pages of the thread reveals these 18 posters:

Trex, Flud, lectureral, Kenny, Croxden, d8veh, d8ve, cosybike, damian, derf, HelenJ, Mike Killay, martx007, Gubbins, KTM, the_killjoy, BrendanJ, timidtom.

There are very many more in the remaining 2086 pages if you care to check.
.
Plus of course the 35 non posters that you know who assured us have each checked the site 50 times per day without missing a single day since the referendum
 
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gray198

Esteemed Pedelecer
Apr 4, 2012
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He has done, he's a Remainer and not Conservative, but prefers to post moderately and dislikes forum dispute. I think from what Zlatan has posted that he suspected Robdon is another identity of Old Tom, but that isn't the case as Rob's posts show. For example:

"November 23rd, 2015
Since D8veh stopped posting and creating great interest in his posts, the forum has gone to pot, half the members do not bother looking in. All we get now is throat cutting, and taking the p**s out of other members posts.
ROB"

Also Rob showed in a post that he didn't know who former prolific poster Eddieo was. OldTom who joined back in Eddieo's posting days does know.
.
ok Flecc fair enough. No more to be said
 
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gray198

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Apr 4, 2012
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It's exaggeration to say Remainers talk in those terms regarding No Deal, but what is forecast has very much in common with the decade following that war. I for one do not want to go back to that, and a complete break with the EU could easily bring that about before long.
I don't think it would go back to that. Undoubtedly things would be difficult, but I cannot see that Europe would not want to continue trading with the UK, and I am sure that agreements will be reached, before too much damage is done. We are a big market and as has been said, there is a lot of integration. All the scare stories may have an element of truth but also an element of exaggeration, and even panic.
I read a quote from a man in Kent who said that for every lorry going to Europe 20 were coming this way. Make of that what you will
 
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Woosh

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A classic example of Project fear. How can you be so certain of all this? We were told this kind of stuff before the vote - emergency budgets and god knows what other calamities that were supposed to happen. Fear. It's all fear. You don't actually know.
a devaluation of the Pound will make the UK much less attractive to EU workers. They go home or to a Eurozone country, guess who are going to replace them?
 
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Woosh

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Speaking of £39 billion, not that I know anything, but I rather assume the bill is effectively denominated in euros? If so, how come the amount remains stable despite considerable sterling/euro movements?
yes, the bill is in Euros. The £39 billions is the current estimate. It will probably go higher because we are likely going to need a longer transition if we leave the single market and customs union.
 
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Woosh

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I don't think it would go back to that. Undoubtedly things would be difficult, but I cannot see that Europe would not want to continue trading with the UK, and I am sure that agreements will be reached, before too much damage is done. We are a big market and as has been said, there is a lot of integration. All the scare stories may have an element of truth but also an element of exaggeration, and even panic.
I read a quote from a man in Kent who said that for every lorry going to Europe 20 were coming this way. Make of that what you will
we will continue to trade with the EU like before.
What will affect us if we leave the EU's single market and customs union is the outflow of assets. Banks will move their assets to the EU, Japanese car makers, pharmaceuticals will also reduce their capacity, the balance of payments will be hit hard.
 

Kudoscycles

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Apr 15, 2011
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People go on about how bad it would be with no deal. They should seriously sit down with my Mum and let her tell you some of her stories from the war. Where people were being actually killed. Families split apart. Men coming back torn to pieces. The bombing. The terror of it all.

I hear people talk about 'no-deal' with the same tone in their words. What nonsense it is.

We got through the war and we would get through whatever a 'no-deal' brought. It is what we voted for. To leave the EU. So we're not as 'prepared' logistically as we should be. Whatever. Welcome to democracy. Stop whining and get on with it.
Remember back to the referendum .....it was all going to be so easy,theEU sell more to us so they will be desperate for a deal,we are going to be better off,£350 million to the NHS,taking back control of fish,agriculture our borders,easy trade deals with the rest of the world.
‘We are not as prepared as we should be’.....that is the understatement of the year,Santa Claus is better prepared....our government have done nothing,no customs,no lorry parks,no aviation deal,no passport equivalent,no plan for Ireland and who would you honestly trust more for future trade deals.....Liam Fox or the EU?
You really are delusional if you think that no deal will be ok...if we do go for no deal let’s hope the EU save us from an embarrassing disaster.
Do you really think this government are doing anything for ‘the national interest’....May knows that U-turning would be the sensible out,but it would be out for her,Boris would have to get out his Remain speech,Davis might have to do some work,Rees-Mogg would buy £ with his inflated dollars,Liam Fox would collect his pension and Gove would sharpen his knife to stab May in the back.....anyone who thinks that no deal will be ok should expect a visit from the nice young men in white coats and be wheeled off to the funny farm to be talk to nicely.
Brexit was supposed to be positive for us,yet you compare it to your mum’s recollections of the Second World War,incredulous.....it frightens me that you are typical of the Leave voter and might even prevail.
KudosDave
 

OxygenJames

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Jan 8, 2012
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Or there will be no profit to be made?
Profit is good. It's what drives people to produce stuff other people are willing to pay for.

This just in from Jeremy Hunt:

"The UK will “flourish and prosper” even if it walks away from the EU without a deal, Jeremy Hunt has insisted. In an interview with The Telegraph, the Foreign Secretary says that while a no-deal Brexit would cause disruption, the country has faced much bigger challenges in its history."

See.

My Mum is right.
 
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gray198

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Apr 4, 2012
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we will continue to trade with the EU like before.
What will affect us if we leave the EU's single market and customs union is the outflow of assets. Banks will move their assets to the EU, Japanese car makers, pharmaceuticals will also reduce their capacity, the balance of payments will be hit hard.
I understand the thinking behind that but maybe it would not happen. Businesses have more than financial considerations. At the moment there is a lot of turmoil in Europe. A rise of far right parties. France Italy Spain even Germany is having problems, so maybe some may think twice before relocating, if for instance the tax regime is more favourable
 
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OxygenJames

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Jan 8, 2012
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Remember back to the referendum .....it was all going to be so easy,theEU sell more to us so they will be desperate for a deal,we are going to be better off,£350 million to the NHS,taking back control of fish,agriculture our borders,easy trade deals with the rest of the world.
‘We are not as prepared as we should be’.....that is the understatement of the year,Santa Claus is better prepared....our government have done nothing,no customs,no lorry parks,no aviation deal,no passport equivalent,no plan for Ireland and who would you honestly trust more for future trade deals.....Liam Fox or the EU?
You really are delusional if you think that no deal will be ok...if we do go for no deal let’s hope the EU save us from an embarrassing disaster.
Do you really think this government are doing anything for ‘the national interest’....May knows that U-turning would be the sensible out,but it would be out for her,Boris would have to get out his Remain speech,Davis might have to do some work,Rees-Mogg would buy £ with his inflated dollars,Liam Fox would collect his pension and Gove would sharpen his knife to stab May in the back.....anyone who thinks that no deal will be ok should expect a visit from the nice young men in white coats and be wheeled off to the funny farm to be talk to nicely.
Brexit was supposed to be positive for us,yet you compare it to your mum’s recollections of the Second World War,incredulous.....it frightens me that you are typical of the Leave voter and might even prevail.
KudosDave
Feel better now?
 

OxygenJames

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 8, 2012
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we will continue to trade with the EU like before.
What will affect us if we leave the EU's single market and customs union is the outflow of assets. Banks will move their assets to the EU, Japanese car makers, pharmaceuticals will also reduce their capacity, the balance of payments will be hit hard.
iyho
 

OxygenJames

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 8, 2012
2,593
1,041
a devaluation of the Pound will make the UK much less attractive to EU workers. They go home or to a Eurozone country, guess who are going to replace them?
'Much less'? Go find out what average earnings are in Poland take off 15% and tell me how much change you have.
 

OxygenJames

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 8, 2012
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I don't need my long dead mum to tell me, I lived through WW2 in London and remember it well enough.

It's exaggeration to say Remainers talk in those terms regarding No Deal, but what is forecast has very much in common with the decade following that war. I for one do not want to go back to that, and a complete break with the EU could easily bring that about before long.

Fortunately there seem to be enough sane people in UK politics and the influential civil service to make it likely that won't happen. It's just a pity they aren't sane enough to scrap the whole silly and impossible Brexit attempt, preferring to make us all worse off instead for a very long time, possibly always.
.
Seriously? 'forecast has very much in common with the decade after the war'. What? Flecc. For you that's low. Have you any idea how much living standards have gone up since then? What on EARTH are you on? Nuts. You're nuts. Barmy. Crazy. To believe such things. How can you possibly twist your mind around to think that? Ah well. Never mind. Strictly's final was fun. Time for bed.
 

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
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A classic example of Project fear. How can you be so certain of all this? We were told this kind of stuff before the vote - emergency budgets and god knows what other calamities that were supposed to happen. Fear. It's all fear. You don't actually know.
I actually know,I deal with many suppliers who are subbies to Ford and Jaguar Land Rover,they have cancelled pre ordered product because they don’t need the bits,they are short time working,look around the outer car parks round the NEC....they are full of unsold vehicles. Walk into any car dealer and they are desperate to move stock.
And all this is on uncertainty ,if no deal or a bad deal becomes real,these vehicles will become so much scrap and massive redundancies will be the result.
I have many friends at JLR,they fear for their jobs,and many realised that voting leave could be voting themselves out of a job.
I actually know.
KudosDave
 

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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'Much less'? Go find out what average earnings are in Poland take off 15% and tell me how much change you have.
net annual EU immigration was 174,000 before the referendum, 74,000 last 12 months, down 100,000 because their take home in Euros is 15% less. If we have a no deal brexit, the Pound will drop to parity with the Euro, we'll probably stop EU immigration altogether.
That may be what you want but our food will be about 10% dearer within 2 years.
 

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
5,566
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www.kudoscycles.com
I understand the thinking behind that but maybe it would not happen. Businesses have more than financial considerations. At the moment there is a lot of turmoil in Europe. A rise of far right parties. France Italy Spain even Germany is having problems, so maybe some may think twice before relocating, if for instance the tax regime is more favourable
If we bring corporation tax down to 10% and throw out grants to the Chinese,they may use our own money to buy up cheap trading businesses in the U.K.,hehe.
KudosDave
 

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
5,566
5,048
www.kudoscycles.com
net annual EU immigration was 174,000 before the referendum, 74,000 last 12 months, down 100,000 because their take home in Euros is 15% less. If we have a no deal brexit, the Pound will drop to parity with the Euro, we'll probably stop EU immigration altogether.
That may be what you want but our food will be about 10% dearer within 2 years.
If we go into WTO it will be a lot dearer than 10%,meat and butter could become very expensive.
 

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