Brexit, for once some facts.

[Kudoscycles]

Theresa May is clearly going to return to a few problems...
I watched some of the Supreme Court case,its not exactly entertainment...close run thing between watching paint dry,the Jeremy Kyle Show,I'm a Celebrity or England cricket in a test match.
But,unless the claimants make a hash of their case it looks like the government have nothing new to add and will get defeated.
The vote in parliament about sight of Article 50 before its triggered could largely depend upon how Labour vote,it must be awfully tempting to see the vote carried,May would then struggle to get her short Bill through parliament without major amendments,those amendments would include both the single market and protection of workers rights. if the single market is a parliament red line then we have to accept free movement of people and services....to my mind we are back to square one.
May cannot and maybe wont be allowed to call a mid term election,even if she could us Remainers would make sure that she took a pasting in any majority Remain seat (Richmond Park).
She would be stuck,serve her right for trying to appease her right wing mates,she would have to resign.
But,who would replace her?????
KudosDave

 

[anotherkiwi]

tilson my problem is that I can't see what you will have left to trade. The beginning and the end of my doubts of brexit success or failure are there.

 

[oldtom]

,she would have to resign.
But,who would replace her?????
KudosDave

How about this Dave? Farage looks into his crystal ball and decides to stand for parliament, seeing the writing on the wall for May. He wins a safe tory seat anywhere and is fast-tracked into the cabinet. After a year, he gets the backing of enough right-wingers to challenge for the leadership and voila! I give you the Prime Minister. I think that is why he's reluctant to accept a knighthood at this time.

Ok, I know it's far-fetched but no more so than the Shangri-La utopia that is 'Brexit' according to the thic.....sorry! - highly intelligent campaigners for that nightmare scenario.

Tom

 

[derf]

Tom,

The truth is no one knows what BREXIT will mean. At one extreme, we could exit the EU, not pay a penny into it, enjoy free trade and be free to negotiate our trade deals world wide. At the other extreme, we could end up retaining all the things that BREXIT was meant to end and be much worse off economically. The truth is, no one knows what will happen. We all have our own idea and mine is that we will end up closer to the first scenario that I quoted than to the second. You and the majority on this thread clearly think the second scenario is more likely. Nothing wrong at this stage.

The problems then start because you think that you are privy to some kind of insider information on BREXIT. That you posses knowledge far greater than the government and are able to predict the outcome with certainty. You then believe that anyone who disagrees with you is an idiot. It's simply ridiculous. Laughable.

There isn't really anything to discuss. The vote happened, BREXIT was the choice, let's get on with it.

it's not insider information. it's blatantly t the structure of the uk economy (mostly services based, unable to balance it's imports/exports through increased manufacturing - but don't let it worry you, it will do so through reduced consumption, in other words by lowering the living standard of the locals, mainly the poor). Either you and other brexitters don't know that. Which I find absolutely astonishing. a bit like realising I share this little island with a bunch of flat earth believers. or you pretend not to know it as part of prioritising xenophobic politics over the needs of the electorate. I cant decide which possibility is more unpleasant.

 

[tillson]

it's not insider information. it's blatantly t the structure of the uk economy (mostly services based, unable to balance it's imports/exports through increased manufacturing - but don't let it worry you, it will do so through reduced consumption, in other words by lowering the living standard of the locals, mainly the poor). Either you and other brexitters don't know that. Which I find absolutely astonishing. a bit like realising I share this little island with a bunch of flat earth believers. or you pretend not to know it as part of prioritising xenophobic politics over the needs of the electorate. I cant decide which possibility is more unpleasant.

I think you may be an even bigger fool than old tom. It's hard to tell for certain, but I have a suspicion that I might be correct.

 

[Kudoscycles]

First we had soft brexit,then hard bexit,then white brexit,then black brexit,then grey brexit.
If this had all come from a first year graphics student, but unbelievably this is Theresa May telling us what kind of brexit she is seeking.
OMG that's a relief I thought she was heading towards some kind of brown brexit!!!!!
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

This is what we will be up against with EU negotiations,the EU dont want free trade unless it is heavily biased towards them. The following shows how they have altered the definition of dumping to avoid its deletion in 2018....based on this there is no way we are going to be allowed free trade with the rest of the world and the EU,post Brexit....

An EU press release on the Commission’s proposal says, “The purpose of the new method for calculating dumping is to make sure that Europe has trade defence instruments that are able to deal with current realities – notably overcapacities – in the international trading environment, while fully respecting the EU’s international obligations in the legal framework of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The proposal, which introduces changes to the EU’s anti-dumping and anti-subsidy legislation, follows a broad public consultation and is accompanied by an impact assessment. The new anti-dumping methodology would apply to cases initiated once the amended rules are in force. The proposal also includes a transition period during which all anti-dumping measures currently in place as well as ongoing investigations would remain subject to the existing legislation.”

New methodology for determining dumping
The EU press release stipulates further, “Under current rules, in normal market circumstances dumping is calculated by comparing the export price of a product to the EU with the domestic prices or costs of the product in the exporting country. This approach will be kept and complemented by the new methodology that will be country-neutral. It will apply the same way to all WTO members and will take into account significant distortions in certain countries, due to state influence in the economy. WTO members will no longer be part of a list of countries subject to the so called “analogue country” methodology. This approach will be reserved for non-market economy countries that are not members of the WTO.”

Anti-subsidy legislation
The Commission has also proposed a strengthening of the EU anti-subsidy legislation so that in future cases, any new subsidies revealed in the course of an investigation can also be investigated and included in the final duties imposed.

In determining distortions, several criteria will be considered, such as state policies and influence, the widespread presence of state-owned enterprises, discrimination in favour of domestic companies and the independence of the financial sector. The Commission will draft specific reports for countries or sectors where it will identify distortions. As is the case today, it will be for the EU industry to file complaints, but they can rely on such reports by the Commission to make their case.

‘Free trade must be fair’
EU Commission Vice-President Jyrki Katainen, responsible for Jobs, Growth, Investment and Competitiveness, said: “Trade is Europe’s best growth lever. But free trade must be fair, and only fair trade can be free. Today we are presenting a proposal to adapt our trade defence instruments to deal with the new realities of over-capacity and a changing international legal framework. More than 30 million jobs in Europe, including 6 million jobs in Small to Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs), depend on free and fair trade which remains at the heart of EU strategy for jobs and growth.”

European Parliament and Council to decide
The European Commission’s proposal follows orientation debates held in January and July as well as extensive stakeholder and social partner contacts and a public consultation. A full Impact Assessment was conducted to assess the implications of any decision on each Member State and economic sector.

The European Parliament and the Council will now decide on the proposal through the ordinary legislative procedure.

Published by Jack Oortwijn on 17 Nov 2016
last update: 17 Nov 2016

Theresa May and David Davis stand no chance of achieving their 'cake and eat it',we are amateurs,the EU are professionals.
KudosDave

 

[derf]

I think you may be an even bigger fool than old tom. It's hard to tell for certain, but I have a suspicion that I might be correct.

you know, your repetitive use of insults instead of argument is familiar. it reminds me of a playground bully I knew when I was, oh, about seven. things didn't end well for him.

 

[shemozzle999]

the EU are professionals.
KudosDave

http://www.bike-eu.com/laws-regulations/nieuws/2016/12/eu-and-china-clash-on-bikes-cause-collapse-of-wto-trade-talks-10128316

 

[derf]

http://www.bike-eu.com/laws-regulations/nieuws/2016/12/eu-and-china-clash-on-bikes-cause-collapse-of-wto-trade-talks-10128316

yes, you should visit a country like Zimbabwe, with whom China has a completely "harmonious relationship". No one in government would dream of disagreeing with the Chinese. They couldn't afford to.

 

[oldgroaner]

Is there anything you'd like to explain to me or the small readership in general about the benefits of pursuing our exit from the EU? It seems that your only input is criticism of those who wish to see the UK remain within the EU but you have never contributed anything positive to encourage remainers to have second thoughts.

You really are difficult to take seriously at all - like some kind of jack-in-the-box puppet who pops up from a French domicile one day and then from the north pole the next, nothing positive to say but happy to disparage the long-term contributors to this thread. Have you got some previous experience of internet trolling or is this a new venture for you?

Tom

Mad Humour warning here as I'm having one of my turns, so I offer for amusement only, the following
No Tom you've go him all wrong, not a jack in the Box at all

Now that was funny!
Come on, smile!
I'm kidding, honestly!
The usual disclaimer applies: any resemblance to any individual living, dead, or contributing from "The other side" to this thread is purely coincidental and unintentional
Should I slip in I.M.H.O as well to be on the safe side?

 

[oldtom]

we should be judged by what we say not who we are, but plainly Tom cant do that.

That is very unfair of you Zlatan. I have considered only those things you have said in arriving at my own opinion of the worth of your contributions here.

How else could I possibly come to believe that you are simply an internet troll who gets his kicks from winding up other people at long range?

As I don't know you from Adam and doubt if we have ever met or even set eyes on one another, I'm at a loss to imagine any other way I might have formulated any opinion about you. Anyway, at least you seem to have gained at least one friend on the forum as 'tillson' was displaying signs of weakening under the pressure of almost single-handedly maintaining the voice of unreasonableness, (I wrote that then checked but it is a proper word!).

Sometimes, I think you and 'tillson' could be twins.....maybe even the same person but it doesn't really matter: political illiteracy is a common shortcoming across the classes.

Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

That is very unfair of you Zlatan. I have considered only those things you have said in arriving at my own opinion of the worth of your contributions here.

How else could I possibly come to believe that you are simply an internet troll who gets his kicks from winding up other people at long range?

As I don't know you from Adam and doubt if we have ever met or even set eyes on one another, I'm at a loss to imagine any other way I might have formulated any opinion about you. Anyway, at least you seem to have gained at least one friend on the forum as 'tillson' was displaying signs of weakening under the pressure of almost single-handedly maintaining the voice of unreasonableness, (I wrote that then checked but it is a proper word!).

Sometimes, I think you and 'tillson' could be twins.....maybe even the same person but it doesn't really matter: political illiteracy is a common shortcoming across the classes.

Tom

I like him too, he's Fun

 

[shemozzle999]

yes, you should visit a country like Zimbabwe, with whom China has a completely "harmonious relationship". No one in government would dream of disagreeing with the Chinese. They couldn't afford to.

I feel sorry for Africa especially the Central regions as all the Super Powers, including the EU (mainly by the French interests) have it earmarked as the next Continent to have it's resources exploited.

I doubt if Africa will see much benefit of it though.

 

[oldgroaner]

I feel sorry for for Africa especially the Central regions as all the Super Powers, including the EU (mainly by the French interests) have it earmarked as the next Continent to have of it's resources exploited.

I doubt if Africa will see much benefit of it though.

Or that anything the Chinese have built will last very long either!

 

[Zlatan]

That is very unfair of you Zlatan. I have considered only those things you have said in arriving at my own opinion of the worth of your contributions here.

How else could I possibly come to believe that you are simply an internet troll who gets his kicks from winding up other people at long range?

As I don't know you from Adam and doubt if we have ever met or even set eyes on one another, I'm at a loss to imagine any other way I might have formulated any opinion about you. Anyway, at least you seem to have gained at least one friend on the forum as 'tillson' was displaying signs of weakening under the pressure of almost single-handedly maintaining the voice of unreasonableness, (I wrote that then checked but it is a proper word!).

Sometimes, I think you and 'tillson' could be twins.....maybe even the same person but it doesn't really matter: political illiteracy is a common shortcoming across the classes.

Tom

I don't agree with this post Tom but I do acknowledge its written in a different tone. Perhaps you and I could try and work on similar footing to myself and OG. We disagree on many points but refrain from insult and or patronisation ( not checked but think its a word)

Anyhow lets see if we can both refrain from insult and stick to expressing opinions on brexit..or lack of it...

As for my stance....
Agree with Tilson entirely, nobody can accurately predict long term benefits of Brexit accurately, however having read and studied various investment reports ( by folk I,ve listed previously) I strongly believe UK economy will be stronger outside EU. ( I think I,ve made that plain in past)
I don't think any of us are qualified to make predictions based in our experiences, we must at some stage listen and take note of those more qualified. Personally think all of us benefit from strong economy., consequently my opinions were guided by Peter Hargreaves, Minford,Lyons, Lord Mayors Investment report and to a degree King and originally Carney.
I honestly believe having read above UK will be stronger out of EU., but I accept they could all be wrong...but then again so could Osbourne..Nobody really knows either way.
Osbourne (IMO) has more to answer to for all this turmoil than Farage. I do not see brexit being about immigration. To my mind its about maintaining sovereignty and long term financial security. I don't see us as Europeans but as a separate country within Europe, which is how I think Europeans see us. I can be friends with my neighbours but I decide who comes through my front door, it may well be exactly same people, but the decision is mine to make and not his. Yes, that might be insular but its not, I repeat NOT, racist.
( or xenophobic)

Will Brexit deliver this. No I don't think so. Think we will be tied to eu restrictions for ever. I don't think we will leave, even if we do, we wilk be tied into single market and all that entails.
As a %age of world market the eu is in fact decline. In the 70,s it represented a massive proportion. As Americas, Indian, Chinese etc etc markets develop over next 30 years the countries in positions to exploit these developing/ emerging markets will be in a stronger position. In eu those gains will be shared with rest of EU. Yes its selfish , but I see rest of EU as financial competitors not allies.

 

[flecc]

The Brexit thread should be about the UK getting out of something it should never have been in, I agree with the General de Gaule on that point, you never belonged in the first place.

How very true, unfortunately we didn't have any politicians in the 1970s with de Gaulle's foresight.
.

 

[derf]

I feel sorry for Africa especially the Central regions as all the Super Powers, including the EU (mainly by the French interests) have it earmarked as the next Continent to have it's resources exploited.

I doubt if Africa will see much benefit of it though.

that's a very academic view. have you been to Zimbabwe? and compared the experience to say Botswana? two very different experiences, one Chinese dominated, the other European/za dominated. any African would tell you Botswana is preferable.

 

[oldtom]

Perhaps you and I could try and work on similar footing to myself and OG. We disagree on many points but refrain from insult and or patronisation ( not checked but think its a word)

I'm afraid OG is far more tolerant of those who advocate 'Brexit' as well as those who fail to condemn it wholeheartedly than I am. For what it's worth, I have read and re-read your latest missive and yet again you have failed, (as has everyone else), to articulate any good reasons for exiting the EU.

Time and again the 'remainers' have asked 'leavers' to illustrate the benefits we might enjoy from 'Brexit' yet never has any soundly-based response been given. It is a flight of fancy; a journey into the unknown and an enormous risk for future generations but 'leavers' will not retreat from their entrenched position which they cannot justify in any logical debate.

You have just written a long spiel outlining your opinions yet you have failed to sway me one bit that the UK will be better for exiting the EU. Can you not see the frustration for 'remainers' when we hear, time and time again, the same nonsense and the overwhelming desire to get out of Europe with no plan, no guarantees and for what?

Also, you may use all the 'strongly believes' and 'honestly believes' you like but you are telling me nothing, not one thing, about how we in Britain will be better off after 'Brexit' and that's my problem. It's like playing a hand of brag or poker, blind - you haven't a clue how it's going to turn out, yet you strongly believe in it. The trouble is, you take everybody else down with you when your hand proves to be a loser!

As every argument proffered by the 'Brexit' proponents about economics, about immigration, about the NHS, about taking back sovereignty, (which we have never given away), and all the other lies about trade, currency and so on have been well and truly shattered over the last 5 months, why would anyone want to divorce this country from the 27 other sovereign nation states? They want to be part of a larger entity, able to function in a global market, and will, because of sheer size and an enormous pool of talent, particularly in science, medicine and education.

I note particularly your repeated insistence that you are not racist but that means nothing to me as every racist I have ever encountered has denied they are racist. Why is that I wonder? The usual story starts off along the lines of, 'I'm not normally racist but....'.

The nonsense put out by the tory media about regaining control of our borders is simply rhetoric and playing to the right wing of the party. We have always had as much border control as is reasonably practicable given the fact that we live on an island and our policing of every sort has been slashed time and again by successive tory and tory-lite governments.

Had you stood at a stall on several occasions as I did, in some less than salubrious areas, leafletting the pro-remain message to passers-by, many of whom were openly hostile and intimidating, usually mob-handed, you would understand more of the race issue that continues to blight this country. There are so many around who are in denial about being racist, I have no doubt that that issue was the major single factor in attracting support for the fascist 'Brexit' cause.

Anyone with the slightest trace of human decency would recognise Farage and his extremist party along with all the other far-right lunatics for what they are and understand exactly how dangerous it is to allow these creatures the oxygen of publicity, let alone vote for them.

The best interests of the British people will be served if we remain in an imperfect EU as at least from inside, we can contribute something along with others who seek to improve certain elements of the union. On our own, we have nothing much going for us, in fact we will have considerably less once the 27 other member states move their banking operations to Frankfurt where the traders will be happy to look after their deposits and cashflows probably on terms specifically designed to encourage them to eschew the non-EU member, the UK.

Had you read the first 7,000 posts as suggested, you might better understand the position of those who support the 'remain' campaign and I would not need to type so much repetitive stuff as in this tome.

Tom

 

[Kudoscycles]

Theresa May offered to be open about her Brexit intentions tomorrow then added an amendment that to agree to this openness ,MP's must agree to agree to signing A50 by end of March.
She keeps doing this,her Great Repeal Bill will have elements that MP's will have to sign up to but hidden within it will be bits that only she and her right wingers want.
She wants us to trust her to get on with Brexit but resorts to double dealing that inevitably introduces distrust to everything she does.
The Lords are already fed up with her,I can see them being very difficult especially over the single market.
KudosDave