Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
- Start date
UK's trade deficit running at 5.9% of GDP at present and will get worse pretty soon when the lower value of the Pound forces us to pay much more for imports than we gain in exports, all because we don't have spare export capacity.
I doubt that brexiters care that much about the economy.
http://fortune.com/2016/10/04/pound-sterling-brexit/
I doubt that brexiters care that much about the economy.
http://fortune.com/2016/10/04/pound-sterling-brexit/
Just remember two things and all will be well:
1) None of the doom which was predicted has happened.
2) None of the doom which was predicted will happen.
1) None of the doom which was predicted has happened.
2) None of the doom which was predicted will happen.
Tillson, economics is a bit like climate science, you can't be quite precise when the storm will hit our shores. Brexit may be a democratic choice but it comes at a cost. Just watch the balance of trade. When it gets worse enough, there won't be a single tory MP to sing Mrs May praise.
Thank you tillson, despite having a headache you managed to make me laugh[emoji1]
By the way brexit hasn't happened yet, has it?
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Actually most of the doom has already happened,its just it takes time to surface....will bosses give in to pay demands when everyone realises just how much Brexit has cost?
Maybe a period of inflation will be good for business.
KudosDave
She cannot answer a question without some pre practised answers....Laura Kunnsberg pushed her hard on whether she was worried about the fall in the value of the pound and she repeated the same answer,word for word,three times,none of the answers at all relevant.
She appears to have the worst traits of Gordon Brown...indecisive,top down micro manage and blinkered. She also seems to have a very nasty and self centered streak.
Will she get 'the Great Repeal' through parliament?
KudosDave
Wage rises have the greatest influence over inflation. I can't see runaway wage rises any time soon. I also heard on radio 4 this morning that a 10% devaluation in the pound translates to about 0.4% increase in food prices.
With the devalued pound, products made and exported from the UK will also be very attractively priced abroad.
There are some downsides, but I don't see any reason to get a cockstand about the negatives of BREXIT.
she is right on one point in her closing speech though. People who voted for brexit have been ignored for a very long time, they have now spoken and we have now to decide what kind of country we want it to be.
Let's see how prepared brexiters are to face 20% drop in the value of the Pound and do the extra jobs of 180,000 EU immigrants a year.
Let's see how prepared brexiters are to face 20% drop in the value of the Pound and do the extra jobs of 180,000 EU immigrants a year.
A white stick will prove invaluable, since seeing obstacles seems ruled out by this strange brexit fantasy.
Can you remember now what you actually voted for?
Was it to place all power into the hands of these Tory rip off artists?
Lose money, rights, and to become a second rate nation, with increasing debt to look forward to?
Where is the goodness flowing to tillson? Into whose offshore bank account?
How will we afford to control immigration when we can't afford it now, and the same goes to defending our shores, and compensating companies for any losses due to brexit.?
Admit it , your defence of brexit is just a case of you keeping the joke going, you really can't believe in it now, if you ever did in the first place.
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inflation rate forecast are:
current: 1%
Q1/17: 1.8%
Q2/17: 2%
Q3/17 2.1%
That may not include recent drop in value of the Pound in the last few weeks.
I wouldn't be surprised to see that the figures revised upward of 3%-3.5%
A recent poll had the mid point of pain threshold of brexiters at -2.5%, over that (RPI at over 3.5%), the majority of them would change their vote.
i agree with everything except the "ignored" bit. What I hear most when people who voted brexit speak is ignoring - not being ignored. telling the world they don't give a **** about Aleppo, or victims of war, that all that matters is their obsessive self interest. wanting to obscene along with underachieving benefit cheating lives at the expense of those who contribute. It's ignorance rather than being ignored. Strictly FWIW I used to be an immigrant in the UK. I went there for two reasons: professional infrastructure (its Machiavellian, and im ashamed to admit it, but its very hard to develop professionally in the third world in some lines of work); and for the liberal democratic values. I certainly didn't go there because I had a yen for the kind of xenophobic, self obsessed corrupt little island it is becoming post brexit. may's political career and "plan" will end in tears, like Cameron's, Blair's and all those before it. Once that's happened the brexit "ignored" can crawl back into their ignorant holes and hopefully a more enlightened country perhaps under corbyn emerge
Tillson,it is true that products either currently in stock or largely made in the UK now have an attractiveness to Dollar or Euro buyers,but at some point the increase in the raw materials or 'make up' components must be reflected in the sales price.
I suspect most have hedged for 2016,so price rises will probably be most evident early 2017.
KudosDave
What utterly baffles me, is how a referendum quite clearly identified as "Advisory Only" has assumed the power of a direction from God himself (if there was such a creature)
And why considering what is at stake, the 48% of the Voting population equipped with a fully functional brain is expected to simply "get over it" when the country is being converted into something akin to the "Fourth Reich" to pander to idiot politicians on one hand and a section of the community that now thinks being a racist is somehow blessed.
This will not turn out well, and the losers will be the very ones now gloating at what has been presented to them as a "Triumph for the will of the people"
When in fact it has been a triumph of manipulators over that part of the population receptive to their siren song.
This country has neither the means, the will, or the intelligence to understand what it needs to do to survive in isolation.
British investors have no shred of patriotic intent and they will not invest when more money can be had in China, in fat they would sooner invest in Companies already operating inside the EU to our disadvatage.
The inevitable result will be, as it was the last time, being bailed out by the IMF and having to crawl back into the shelter of the EU on far from the generous terms we now enjoy.
And why considering what is at stake, the 48% of the Voting population equipped with a fully functional brain is expected to simply "get over it" when the country is being converted into something akin to the "Fourth Reich" to pander to idiot politicians on one hand and a section of the community that now thinks being a racist is somehow blessed.
This will not turn out well, and the losers will be the very ones now gloating at what has been presented to them as a "Triumph for the will of the people"
When in fact it has been a triumph of manipulators over that part of the population receptive to their siren song.
This country has neither the means, the will, or the intelligence to understand what it needs to do to survive in isolation.
British investors have no shred of patriotic intent and they will not invest when more money can be had in China, in fat they would sooner invest in Companies already operating inside the EU to our disadvatage.
The inevitable result will be, as it was the last time, being bailed out by the IMF and having to crawl back into the shelter of the EU on far from the generous terms we now enjoy.
Yes, imported raw materials will be more expensive, but as I am sure you know, the manufacturing process is all about taking relatively low value "raw material" and adding value to it by turning it into a product. Therefore, say a 10% increase in raw material cost will not translate into a 10% more expensive product, it will be a fraction of a percentage point.
The benefits of a weak pound will counter the rise raw material cost.
I think the pound was too high in value anyway and it's where it should be now. The Euro bubble will pop pretty soon and that's one explosion we don't want to be anywhere near. Thank goodness we didn't get wrapped up in that counterfeit currency.
Manufactured components aren't cheap, though are they tillson? nice try, but as usual wide of the mark, if you manufacture a car say and it has a foreign engine, is that a tiny part of the cost?
Tillson, if we run a trade deficit, then 20% loss value of the Pound increases the import costs by 20% while export earnings will also go up by 20%, the deficit will grow by 20%. The politicians may call this 20% increase in export value a triumph for brexit but they'll try to play down the 20% increase in imports at the same time. This effect is normally mitigated by increase in export volume but because we don't have spare capacity, we can't increase export volume. Our export receipts are still only 20% more than before. Ergo, deficit will grow by 20%, the BoE has or is running out of ammunition.
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