I find it astonishing (to put it very mildly) that anybody can't see brexit is an extremely bad idea short term (I don't want to repeat the current account deficit issue, but its really at the heart of the truth about the UK economy - it is under productive and utterly reliant on foreign investment; as well as the fact that we export mainly services, to the EU) and long term (we'll be outside all the major trade blocks).
Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
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I'm not so sure. Leaving the EU has been on people's minds for a decade + and support has grown, not shrunk. A lot of people are in incensed by Westminster and harbour a simmering anger that they aren't being listened to. That anger occasionally boils over into acts of violence.
If the Brexit vote is ignored, watered down or reduced to an insulting fudge, it will fuel people's anger and they are unlikely to forget that hat they have been betrayed in the most appalling manner possible, in the voting booth. There are many bad things on the horizon in the EU, it's not the eutopia you bicycle salesman perceive. Italy's banks are in real trouble, Portugal is virtually bankrupt, Spain has huge youth unemployment, there is almost certainly sufficient support for an EU exit in France and Holland, Greece's troubles haven't gone away and the migrant crisis, which is causing tangible anger in Germany is still with us. If the German, French and Holland population were allowed a chance to vote, they would likely quit the EU. The EU leaders have their thumbs desperately pressed into the end of the hose pipe, but pressure is building!
We are now blessed with a PM who no one has voted for. She wasn't elected at the General Election and many of her own MPs didn't even vote for her. If she ignores Brexit, every single thing that goes wrong for the UK will be blamed on her, the undemocratic nature of Westminster and our continued EU membership. Rather than go away, anger and tensions will rise and support for Brexit will intensify.
Add to all of this that the Labour Party are destroying themselves, where are all these angry people who feel cheated, let down and a seething resentment that the EU is the source of all their trouble, going to turn to? Who will represent their views? This is very rich soil for extreme politics to grow in. Your statement at the top of this post is manure in two senses of the word. Firstly it is just that, manure or dung and secondly it is further nourishment for for the soil in which extreme politics will grow and blossom.
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That, Dave, sums up nicely the moribund situation that seems to be developing in relation to 'Brexit'.
Any appetite for the UK to divorce from the EU appears to have diminished since the prospect of actually doing the deed, with all that it entails, has entered into the minds of those who were misinformed and misled by the opportunistic, self-aggrandising 'Leave' campaign leaders.
Of course, there are still some, largely the racist element who are in complete denial that they are racist, for whom nothing short of a lingering suicide will satisfy their myopic misunderstanding of this country's future in the 21st century world we live in.
As a devout 'remainer' who came out on the losing side of a perfectly fair ballot, I take the democratic line that we should now get on with the business of 'Brexit', however painful that may be....(or otherwise!). As I'm now stuck with the decision of the majority, I just wish the leaders of the victorious campaign had actually described the benefits we will enjoy and when we are likely to appreciate and enjoy our 'freedom' from EU oppression. Nonetheless, I used to quite enjoy a mystery tour on a charabanc when I was young so I see this journey rather like those trips.
Tom
Oh for goodness sake Derf, for 129 pages you keep on repeating the same things that have been answered on numerous occasions. Has your fiddle only got one string
You are like a rabbit that has for the first time been exposed to the glare of economics, and cannot get his eyes open wide enough and is rooted to the spot. One little hop and skip to the safety of the bushes.
And here we go again...take my statement completely out of context and play the racist card.
My points were about socioeconomic deprivation in many parts of EU.
By the way I,m Jamaican, and if you think our country ( yes the UK) is racist I suggest you stay here.
The voting system is a very blunt tool.
Seems to me both sides have suporters who are convinced of their views. Others ( and I suspect the vast majority) are bordering one way or the other. Perhaps a system that reflected this would be beneficial for a fairer result. For example on voting we could have 5 points to allocate. Some would score 5 to nil. I,d score 3 to 2 in leaves favour..
Does seem to me the stayers are more devout in their feelings. I suspect that's to do with folk not liking change and the odd campaign from Cameron, but my scoring idea would help ?? Had we stayed would we have had all these recriminations..I don't think so, and the consequences are just as severe either way.
Seems to me both sides have suporters who are convinced of their views. Others ( and I suspect the vast majority) are bordering one way or the other. Perhaps a system that reflected this would be beneficial for a fairer result. For example on voting we could have 5 points to allocate. Some would score 5 to nil. I,d score 3 to 2 in leaves favour..
Does seem to me the stayers are more devout in their feelings. I suspect that's to do with folk not liking change and the odd campaign from Cameron, but my scoring idea would help ?? Had we stayed would we have had all these recriminations..I don't think so, and the consequences are just as severe either way.
flud, don't kid yourself, brexit is all about anti-immigration, a minority in our society. There is no disagreement that it will cost our economy for decades to come. Until a brexiter led department works out what kind of brexit we can have, that cost to our economy remains unknown and nobody can assume which way a future government is going to do with brexit.
Within a year, evidence of jobs moving to our EU competitors will mount, I think the slim winning margin of brexiters will have vanished.
Within a year, evidence of jobs moving to our EU competitors will mount, I think the slim winning margin of brexiters will have vanished.
I agree with most of that,it looks like Italy's banks are going to need a bailout,the economies of Greece,Italy,Spain and France are in a mess,the Euro will come under pressure soon(thank goodness we are not in the Euro),but I don't agree they would quit the EU,it is the lifeline that is keeping them afloat.
It's all about timing,if the EU falls apart it may have been possible to join with a smaller EU ,a more manageable size. But us breaking away at this time focused the world on us alone,with the pressure on the pound.
We are still in a period of austerity and couldn't afford to take the hit at this time.
I dont know why Cameron called the referendum so early in the term,in hindsight it would have been better to have been closer to 2020 and planned for it better.
I still think that pre referendum most people voted for anti immigration,I have lots of friends who voted for that alone,they didn't consider the economy implications until after the vote. But many of them run small businesses and are shocked by the economic effects,they didn't believe Osborne,let's be honest he over did it,but they would vote completely the opposite now.
Most have learnt more about the referendum afterwards,I include myself in that,almost nobody I have spoken to realised it was only advisory and parliament still needed to vote us out.
Yes there are going to be angry people within the 17 million but May will ignore that,she is bright enough to realise that going anywhere near Article 50 could be political suicide.
KudosDave
I think he was fed up with the PM role, partly due to some personal failures, hence his announcement of going at the next general election.
And the failures? They were two promises that he'd made but couldn't carry though. The first was the promise to the hunting lobby to repeal the anti-fox hunting bill which he realised he'd never get through the House. The second was his wish to scrap the Human Rights bill, which again he eventually realised was politically impossible in the modern world.
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I still think there is a strong desire within the countries that I listed to leave the EU. In general I think people like the idea of a trading agreement between all EU members and to some extent, easy movement around the EU and passage between borders.
I am sure that ever greater political union is not what the people of Europe want. That desire just exists in a small group of elite people who stand to benefit from it.
I still don't understand why we can't not have a friendly cooperative in terms of trade, support and help between all EU members without the demands for uncontrolled and free movement of labour and migration. I am certain that this is what the vast majority is of the EU's population would like to see.
I think Boris is ear marked for Minister of Fun....culture,the arts,sport.
It will be interesting who she assigns to Brexit minister,it would be brave to give Leadsom or Gove the job,I think she needs to find a 'spanner rattler'
KudosDave
freedom of movement is what improves productivity, a key measure in economic success. I don't think anyone in government can ever explain to the great unwashed how 'improved productivity' will benefit them.
Many of them don't usually vote, the risk of a revolution is thus minimized. Until someone offers them a referendum.
We don't sit too bad on that list.
I notice that many EE countries are at the bottom of the list,is that because their young people are working abroad?
Spain is interesting because many young Spaniards work as nurses,stewardesses for low cost airlines,receptionists in hotels etc etc,but the chart says 50% are still unemployed.
It is a perecentage,I wonder what the numbers are?
EU young people have a big advantage over the UK when working abroad,most speak English plus other languages(Rumanian is close to Spanish),how many of our young people speak German or Spanish.
KudosDave
It's because they are no longer able to work. How could they possibly spare the time when they are fully occupied 16 hours a day on their smartphones?
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one way to reduce youth un-employment is to make exams much more difficult.
More difficult exams will lead to fewer students attending university and more people will sooner opt for manual jobs.
Well I don't agree with that at all. For a start my home town which was one of highest out results. ( almost 70%) also highest one of highest immigration levels eligible to vote. In speaking to folk around town immigration is not their main concern. And it certainly wasn't in mine. You don't have to dig very deep to see what a mess e cononically att least half of eu is in. Look at figures quoted above. EU is going bankrupt, can the wralthier nations keep others out the mess ? I don't think so. EU paints picture of all well, socially and economically. The fact is it simply is not. General views on here are bot representative at all off those held locally . Infact I,d go as far as saying a second referendum would produce a bigger win for leave. Folk ate sick of the protesting, the recriminations and the insults more now than ever.
With or without us the EU's days are numbered. It can not carry on bailing out its lame ducks. They need their own fiscal control, not financial help.
I really think the immigration issue is another example of our ( last) government playing tricks to gain support for leave. I didn't buy into then and dont now. Our country is not intrinsically racist or xenophobic. Suspect my family are living example of fact.
Folk simply want their own control of UK. That control may even allow larger numbers in. Look at UK,s history, it has never taken well to being told what to do by essentially unelected ( except for half its priministers, including Churchill) outsiders. I think its that simple. Folk want away from Brussels.
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I've not yet washed this morning, so explain to me how free and uncontrolled movement of labour and migration helps productivity.
If you note I have not said no migration, I am all in favour of people migrating to the uk who bring with them skills or a desire to work in an industry with a recruitment shortage. How does going that one step further and releasing all controls improve productivity?
Please, please and please, no more graphs or cut and paste, just tell me how the move from targeting skills and labour shortages to releasing all controls improved productivity. Perhaps then I can have a wash.