Brexit, for once some facts.

[jonathan.agnew]

I reckon the feds are more scared of bailing the banks than cpi which affects ordinary people.
The loss inflicted to the banks by rapid increase in interest could have been predicted and probably predicted. In future, central banks will have to be made more responsible. They print money because government needs it, reduce rates, stoke inflation, increase rates, pushing overexposed banks to the wall then print some more to bail them out. Kind of ponzi scheme, relying on natural selection.

Inflation will run rampant, if they don't raise interest rates. The same will happen if they bail out banks, as doing so buoys certain assets, the owners of which will spend more.

BTW:

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

I blame the electoral cycle in the West and short term thinking, leaving the mess for the next government. What the feds did for svb is a bailout by any other name. But with inflation qe won't solve anything this time. China, happilly, is being sucked into the contagion as well. So its not the victor for brics it may seem. A successful spring counteroffensive by ukraine and humbled Russia with regime change somewhere on the horizon won't do any harm though.

 

[flecc]

This new bank scare will fizzle out soon enough. For a change it will hardly touch us in the UK.
.

 

[Woosh]

For a change it will hardly touch us in the UK.

I keep my fingers crossed.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

I keep my fingers crossed.

Don't want to sound nihilistic. But while I can see where you're coming from, we've created an unacceptably unequal world post 08 by not allowing a crash, in which the young pay too much for the previous generations' sins. A painful correction (ie crash, depression, collapse of asset prices) is well overdue, and the wormhole we need to travel through to get back to a more equitable world.

 

[flecc]

Don't want to sound nihilistic. But while I can see where you're coming from, we've created an unacceptably unequal world post 08 by not allowing a crash, in which the young pay too much for the previous generations' sins. A painful correction (ie crash, depression, collapse of asset prices) is well overdue, and the wormhole we need to travel through to get back to a more equitable world.

In a sense I fully agree, but the nature of the present situation and our poor prospects means it's more likely to be a very long drawn out decline, rather than any sort of an abrupt crash.

Same destination, just a different type of journey. In fact a journey we commenced in 2016 after the referendum so we are already in the seventh year of it.

From 1950 on we notoriously lived a boom and bust life, typified latterly by the Thatcher 1980 recession and her mid eighties boom, then Major's 1991 recession and following boom. But note the difference following the 2008 crash. This time we haven't climbed out of it into a boom. Instead we followed with Osborne's austerity and a succession of bad news events, culminating in today's widespread labour unrest and the gloomy prospect of a new cold war.

So without the prequel of a boom, I don't believe we will have the inevitability of a corrective crash.

We'll just slowly and steadily get worse off, for example today's much higher costs and forthcoming higher taxes. The decline in car ownership I've been forecasting as inevitable. The costs of a big increase in defence expenditure.

And our property market is already in big trouble with a desperate shortage of housing, yet not enough people able to afford the record numbers of empty properties in the south. That undermines any feeling of the wealth through property ownership that so many enjoyed previously and which fuelled the credit led booms.

Not so much boom and bust from now on, more doom and gloom in prospect.
.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

In a sense I fully agree, but the nature of the present situation and our poor prospects means it's more likely to be a very long drawn out decline, rather than any sort of an abrupt crash.

Same destination, just a different type of journey. In fact a journey we commenced in 2016 after the referendum so we are already in the seventh year of it.

From 1950 on we notoriously lived a boom and bust life, typified latterly by the Thatcher 1980 recession and her mid eighties boom, then Major's 1991 recession and following boom. But note the difference following the 2008 crash. This time we haven't climbed out of it into a boom. Instead we followed with Osborne's austerity and a succession of bad news events, culminating in today's widespread labour unrest and the gloomy prospect of a new cold war.

So without the prequel of a boom, I don't believe we will have the inevitability of a corrective crash.

We'll just slowly and steadily get worse off, for example today's much higher costs and forthcoming higher taxes. The decline in car ownership I've been forecasting as inevitable. The costs of a big increase in defence expenditure.

And our property market is already in big trouble with a desperate shortage of housing, yet not enough people able to afford the record numbers of empty properties in the south. That undermines any feeling of the wealth through property ownership that so many enjoyed previously and which fuelled the credit led booms.

Not so much boom and bust from now on, more doom and gloom in prospect.
.

Yes, i agree, another way to account for that series of unfortunate events is to say that we squandered our heritage by voting conservative/neoconservative for some truly banal reasons and left our children with very little

Google Image Result for https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-b0fe79bf4799dc61d6f5d225c2775112-lq

 

[guerney]

Yes, i agree, another way to account for that series of unfortunate events is to say that we squandered our heritage by voting conservative/neoconservative for some truly banal reasons and left our children with very little

Google Image Result for https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-b0fe79bf4799dc61d6f5d225c2775112-lq

Red Wallers will become Red Wailers, hoodwinked by Cameron's fake "Apriration", will take losing their houses and/or house values declining very badly. lol. This government will print money and blame others like it's life depends on it, which it does. And as happens after every bust, wealth will be sucked up by the higher financial echelons yet again. Society needs a very long drawn out depression to correct values: If long enough, hoping that wealth properly gets completely reconfigured, set by the value of resources key to humanity's long term survival on earth, is too much to hope for.

 

[soundwave]

 

[guerney]

If it's that cold in the winter, my experience of living in a similar constructed small space some years ago tells me he'll be roasting in the summer, especially in that tiny sleeping area high up - it's a great idea, and he's been lucky/managed to fast-talk himself into an art project scenario, which he admits isn't generally possible.

 

[soundwave]

The huge cardboard city by Waterloo that was home to London's poorest residents

It had its own nightclub and was visited by Princess Diana but living conditions were so bad one man was 'half-eaten' by rats

www.mylondon.news

It had its own nightclub and was visited by Princess Diana but living conditions were so bad one man was 'half-eaten' by rats

 

[guerney]

The huge cardboard city by Waterloo that was home to London's poorest residents

It had its own nightclub and was visited by Princess Diana but living conditions were so bad one man was 'half-eaten' by rats

www.mylondon.news

It had its own nightclub and was visited by Princess Diana but living conditions were so bad one man was 'half-eaten' by rats

In the 1970s, a friend of mine lived somewhere like that in London, she dropped so much acid she's utterly deranged to this day.

 

[Zlatan]

If it's that cold in the winter, my experience of living in a similar constructed small space some years ago tells me he'll be roasting in the summer, especially in that tiny sleeping area high up - it's a great idea, and he's been lucky/managed to fast-talk himself into an art project scenario, which he admits isn't generally possible.

If he's spray foam insulated the skip, insulated upper sections and uses double glazed window don't think it will be too bad, if he's done none of those it will be too hot summer, damp (from condensation) and freezing cold rest of year.
Spray foam insulation is incredible for barges.

 

[guerney]

If he's spray foam insulated the skip, insulated upper sections and uses double glazed window don't think it will be too bad, if he's done none of those it will be too hot summer, damp (from condensation) and freezing cold rest of year.
Spray foam insulation is incredible for barges.

I tried sleeping and working in my bespoke purpose built shed with a peaked roof about 20 years ago - 100mm foil backed foam lined all over was not enough, neither were the big double glazed sliding doors/windows. Spray foam might have made a bit of a difference, but in such a small volume in a sunny aspect, I'm doubtful. Sold now with the house.

 

[Zlatan]

I tried sleeping and working in my bespoke purpose built shed with a peaked roof about 20 years ago - 100mm foil backed foam lined all over was not enough, neither were the big double glazed sliding doors/windows. Spray foam might have made a bit of a difference, but in such a small volume in a sunny aspect, I'm doubtful. Sold now with the house.

I lived on a narrow boats for 10 years or so. . Basically a skip sat in water.
First boat was insulated... Sort of.. Polystyrene, rock wool beneath wooden panelling, under floor etc, etx. It was cold, damp and miserable in winter. Hot and still damp in summer.
Next one was spray foam insulated. No comparison. No damp, no condensation, quieter and perfectly habitable even sat on frozen canal. It was also roomier. Generally spray foam, if professionally fitted, can be nearly half thickness of more traditional insulation. No matter how well normal insulation is fitted you end up with a gap between metal and insulation,which negates its effect,leads to condensation and eventually sagging. It's expensive tho.

 

[guerney]

I lived on a narrow boats for 10 years or so. . Basically a skip sat in water.
First boat was insulated... Sort of.. Polystyrene, rock wool beneath wooden panelling, under floor etc, etx. It was cold, damp and miserable in winter. Hot and still damp in summer.
Next one was spray foam insulated. No comparison. No damp, no condensation, quieter and perfectly habitable even sat on frozen canal. It was also roomier. Generally spray foam, if professionally fitted, can be nearly half thickness of more traditional insulation. No matter how well normal insulation is fitted you end up with a gap between metal and insulation,which negates its effect,leads to condensation and eventually sagging. It's expensive tho.

Plaster on the walls and ceiling - wasn't damp, just too darn cold or too hot. Added to the value of the house. I never got around to adding plumbing (had electrics) or replacing the insulation. Cheers - I'll try spray on insulation foam next time...

 

[jonathan.agnew]

I lived on a narrow boats for 10 years or so. . Basically a skip sat in water.
First boat was insulated... Sort of.. Polystyrene, rock wool beneath wooden panelling, under floor etc, etx. It was cold, damp and miserable in winter. Hot and still damp in summer.
Next one was spray foam insulated. No comparison. No damp, no condensation, quieter and perfectly habitable even sat on frozen canal. It was also roomier. Generally spray foam, if professionally fitted, can be nearly half thickness of more traditional insulation. No matter how well normal insulation is fitted you end up with a gap between metal and insulation,which negates its effect,leads to condensation and eventually sagging. It's expensive tho.

Curiously have neighbour that used cavity insulation(injected) in double walls and found it caused damp (apparently, in houses with double brick walls, cavities crucial to let inner wall breath). But to be fair I've yet to live in any house on this condenser of an island in the north Atlantic that isn't damp unless permanently heated above 18c with open windows

 

[guerney]

With that shape and situation, traffic noise would be unbearable probably, like living inside a bass bin (as well as dust bin). Like a lot of London bus drivers (and DJs, everywhere), he'll eventually get tinnitus from long-term exposure to low frequency noise, and/or hallucinations. A skip isn't a good place to experience hallucinations. I fear this may be the most palatial of the many skips he goes on to inhabit, during his tragically short and (judging by his channel) annoyed and haunted life.

 

[Zlatan]

Curiously have neighbour that used cavity insulation(injected) in double walls and found it caused damp (apparently, in houses with double brick walls, cavities crucial to let inner wall breath). But to be fair I've yet to live in any house on this condenser of an island in the north Atlantic that isn't damp unless permanently heated above 18c with open windows

I think houses present different problems to barges. I, ve read before about issue you mention. Problem with house is you must try and stop convection currents between layers but still let air circulate to remove damp from brick work (essentially porous)
Metal boats conduct heat straight through (in both directions according to temp) and then make perfect condensers.. Damp air hits cold metal and next thing is its dripping wet.. Spray foam on metal virtually stops that. Not sure same benefits would be seen on land/brickwork.??
To be fair I was glad to get out the barge. Feeding carp on cold sunny mornings, eating a bacon sarni sounds idyllic. Keeping Woodburner fed, batteries charged, duck, seagull **** off top, carrying everything on and off, etc etc etc takes it toll after a couple of years.

 

[Woosh]

I wonder if any company would bid for this £78m contract for the neutral sounding ' Migration and Economic Development Partnerships (MEDP)'
Contract for the provision of in-country and overseas escorting services in relation to Migration and Economic Development Partnerships (MEDP) and other immigration services. - Contracts Finder

Essentially, money for nothing. Rwanda was supposed to take 200 in the last two years but nobody got sent there. The Court decided that the government was right in the whole but stopped all deportations until all legal challenges are heard. Basically for the foreseeable future.
We've got the space for 3,000 detainees but there are probably more than 1 million illegal migrants live and work here.
I watched Jake Berry on BBC2 Daily Politics yesterday. He has not a clue to where and when illegal migrants will be deported under the new law. The government expect freelancers to solve the problem for them.
What do you think?

 

[Zlatan]

I wonder if any company would bid for this £78m contract for the neutral sounding ' Migration and Economic Development Partnerships (MEDP)'
Contract for the provision of in-country and overseas escorting services in relation to Migration and Economic Development Partnerships (MEDP) and other immigration services. - Contracts Finder

Essentially, money for nothing. Rwanda was supposed to take 200 in the last two years but nobody got sent there. The Court decided that the government was right in the whole but stopped all deportations until all legal challenges are heard. Basically for the foreseeable future.
We've got the space for 3,000 detainees but there are probably more than 1 million illegal migrants live and work here.
I watched Jake Berry on BBC2 Daily Politics yesterday. He has not a clue to where and when illegal migrants will be deported under the new law. The government expect freelancers to solve the problem for them.
What do you think?

Like they sorted PPE no doubt.