BloombergNEF forecasts result of falling cost of making batteries as well as dedicated production lines
www.theguardian.com
Once again the confusion of vehicle with cars. As I've already been pointing out, I am posting about private car ownership and use.
Bloomberg's and similar reports are about vehicles, there's a big difference. Vans and company cars used mainly or entirely for work are already switching over to full electric and that will continue. Some types of hire fleets will go electric. So are buses, in London it is ALL bus purchasing only now, and even trucks are switching. Contractor Biffa in Manchester are already using fully electric trucks for refuse collection for example.
But our private car ownership will drastically reduce over time for the following reasons:
The coming ban on ic and environmental threats have already drastically reduced their sales. Diesel cars are being wiped out, petrol car sales have slumped and hybrid sales falling. Only fully electric car sales are rising, but their current prices are prohibitive for the majority and will remain so for a very long time.
All existing private ic cars will over time wear out, crash or be compulsorily scrapped for emission reasons. That will make the low cost car market disappear.
Bloomberg and similar are wrong in my discussion, firstly since they are discussing all vehicles. Secondly because they are speaking world wide and I'm not. Thirdly because they are wrong on prices, we know that from history, they never fall. All that happens is that net income inflation catches up with them.
BUT THIS TIME THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN,
for the simple reason that this time the environmental demands of climate change will not permit it. As we get ever closer to the 2050 deadline, the measures to meet targets will have to become ever harsher, meaning at ever greater cost to our standards of living. This process has already started has it not, just look at your fuel bills over recent years?
And a look at history also shows the lie of falling prices. Coincident with this forum opening lithium batteries arrived for pedelecs, replacing NiMh etc. They were very expensive at the time at £250 for premium batteries, but we were told that prices would fall with greater production and tech advances. Now the premium batteries cost £500 upwards. So much for those falling prices, especially since our incomes have been held down by very low rates of inflation for more than a decade, so certainly haven't more than doubled like the prices of batteries have.
Bloombergs problems, like many forecasters, are they look down a tunnel of their own existence so miss some of the most important factors, in addition to their mistakes.
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