China will have to make up their mind in the next couple of weeks. The UN International Court of Juctice has ordered Russia to stop the war. China will have to follow the decision one way or another so I guess China may supply truck tyres but not drones or missiles.
I agree, I doubt China will want to get involved in the direct military action in any way, mainly supporting Russia economically.
However I think the sanctions are heading for failure as they've always done before, so eventually there may have to be direct Western confrontation with Russia.
These are the main sanction failure points:
China buying Russian oil as they've promised, so that oil they would have bought elsewhere being bought by the West in lieu of the Russian oil they used to buy. That is the West buying Russian oil by proxy.
Europe and especially Germany, Austria and Italy will continue to buy Russian gas because they have no other option.
Because the last Saudi wheat harvest was in 2016, the world has been very short of food since and heavily dependent on Russian and Ukrainian wheat to minimise starvation. Ukraine's seed should have already been planted and if it isn't within a couple of weeks, there will be no harvest there this year. Outcome, the West will be forced by the resulting even more desperate shortage to buy all the usual large export of Russian grain.
Even if they try to avoid that they won't be able to since Russia has long supplied many African nations with grain. These are the same nations that support Russia and refused to vote for the UN resolution to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so they'll certainly buy it.
Finally I've looked further into the Indian support for Russia and I have no doubt it will hold fast with them buying Russian supplies and continuing to manufacture arms for Russia as they are already doing. Biden and US policy are "on the fence" with this, since they want India to be an ally against China, so won't annoy India with demands over Ukraine.
I can see Cold War 2 arriving soon, the Iron Curtain coming down again
.