Brexit, for once some facts.

[Danidl]

I was thinking about this yesterday and it's a little surprising that none of the experts one sees and hears on TV and radio have explained why Omicron will stop other variants from spreading. This type of thing seems to have happened in the past though, perhaps no one has come out and explained exactly how this works is because no one really knows.

I have read that after the human brain, the next most complicated think we know of in the universe is the human immune system. So it might be the case that nature will eventually sort out this pandemic for us, but we wont understand exactly how it has done it.

I think it was flecc who mentioned ages ago that sometimes pandemics just die out and no one really understands why, in the past we didn't have the genomic testing to be able to identify different variants of a virus. Perhaps in past pandemics something like an Omicron would come along but we were not able to identify it and that then would stop the raging pandemic.

This might be what always eventually happens which is why the human race has survived these things in the past. This is of course assuming Omicron is not has harmful as the other variants. If on the other hand the new virus is as harmful or even more harmful than Delta then we are in deep sh**.

Actually it is known why epidemics grow reach steady state and then decay. .Its exactly the same as a forest fire . They run out of new fuel or people to infect. Even the more virulent infections rarely kill everyone , so a few survivors , .. survive. Otherwise the entire population dies and with their deaths, there is no more fuel, so the infection ceases . Sunlight , dessication eventually kills the viruses or bacteria. . Note some are remarkably long lived .. an occupational hazard for antiquarians and librarians is contracting TB from old books and manuscripts, as the TB produces spores .
Using Quarantine is the old fashioned way of protecting larger populations from the natural effects of serious contagions. If a disease is going to kill 10% of a population , it is better to ensure its only 5 out of 50 ships crew rather than 1000 of the population of Venice.

 

[oldgroaner]

Where did they find a refrigerator large enough? Nine Elms coldstore?

Media reports are saying that the entire government has become unavailable even for prearranged interviews.

I shall instigate a search of the Icelandic fish Storage facility in Hull today.

 

[oldgroaner]

My dad in early 60s had a petrol fueled Primus. (or he inadvertently used to run it on petrol)
Even as a kid I thought it unbelievably dangerous. One of my child hood camping memories was watching dad launch mentioned stove into a (fortunately) nearby river... Was like that scene in From Russia with Love where Bond sets river on fire... But without Bond, boat or pretty woman. Lasted a good few minutes as petrol from sunken stove fed flames. Oh what fun dad's camping trips were. Really.

I had at one time an Optimus petrol stove in a tin where the lid folded back to reveal the burner and the front fell down to reveal the pump and valve.
It was a ferocious thing! And noisy too, sounding like a large capacity four stroke motorcycle engine.
People would walk past while I was using it and talk about the noise of the motorbike, and not one ever realised the noise was coming from this tiny stove right next to them!

 

[oyster]

A really good day to choose to sign off Plan B rules.
I wonder what they will say about parties?

 

[Woosh]

How much use is that if, as suggested, some variants cannot be detected by current testing?

For example, it was said that 30 to 35% of UK tests can identify Omicron. But it is still a question as to whether they can identify all Omicron submitted to them.

I fear that covid has become an industry and a cash cow for so many businesses, from PCR test manufacturers to stock traders.
As soon as the breaking news Pfizer 'COVID-19: Antibodies from Pfizer vaccine may be up to 40 times less effective against Omicron, first lab tests suggest', IAG, RR, TUI, petrol and bank stocks dropped, Roche and Occado rose.

 

[Zlatan]

Actually it is known why epidemics grow reach steady state and then decay. .Its exactly the same as a forest fire . They run out of new fuel or people to infect. Even the more virulent infections rarely kill everyone , so a few survivors , .. survive. Otherwise the entire population dies and with their deaths, there is no more fuel, so the infection ceases . Sunlight , dessication eventually kills the viruses or bacteria. . Note some are remarkably long lived .. an occupational hazard for antiquarians and librarians is contracting TB from old books and manuscripts, as the TB produces spores .
Using Quarantine is the old fashioned way of protecting larger populations from the natural effects of serious contagions. If a disease is going to kill 10% of a population , it is better to ensure its only 5 out of 50 ships crew rather than 1000 of the population of Venice.

I see all that but that doesn't explain why Omicron is predicted to both become dominant strain and reduce Delta infections.
There is a massive assumption been made that having Omicron will prevent future infection by Delta?? But we already know the reverse is not the case, so it seems to me Omicron and Delta could persist within same population.. As do Flu and colds at moment or even how various strains of cold (and flu) in fact do... Unless, I, m missing something? And, if so, what??

Yes, I get how Alpha was over run and pushed out of existence by future strains, but until now new strains have only been minor mutations and hence having had Delta you are highly unlikely to then catch Alpha, so it dies out... But Omicron seems almost a different virus completely.
Will infection by Omicron prevent future Delta infections. If not Delta will persist, simply growing at a slower rate???

 

[guerney]

Early data shows Pfizer vaccine less effective against Omicron

South African researchers say people who recovered and were vaccinated are largely protected against the new variant, vaccination alone still likely to prevent severe disease

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[oyster]

I had at one time an Optimus petrol stove in a tin where the lid folded back to reveal the burner and the front fell down to reveal the pump and valve.
It was a ferocious thing! And noisy too, sounding like a large capacity four stroke motorcycle engine.
People would walk past while I was using it and talk about the noise of the motorbike, and not one ever realised the noise was coming from this tiny stove right next to them!

I've still got a very old version of this:

Coleman - Unleaded Sportster™

Unleaded Sportster™

www.coleman.eu

Damned nuisance, originally, as it said not to use leaded petrol, but we did not then have unleaded. Hence, had to buy outrageously expensive fuel.

It was extremely easy to light, powerful and only medium-noisy!

 

[Zlatan]

I had at one time an Optimus petrol stove in a tin where the lid folded back to reveal the burner and the front fell down to reveal the pump and valve.
It was a ferocious thing! And noisy too, sounding like a large capacity four stroke motorcycle engine.
People would walk past while I was using it and talk about the noise of the motorbike, and not one ever realised the noise was coming from this tiny stove right next to them!

Come to think of it that's what dad called ours... Was a green enamelled think with a folding wind shield. (actually a fire shield on its last journey)... Was hotter and far easier to light than ordinary Primus. I believe it was ex army..???

 

[oyster]

"I've been repeatedly assured..."

Utter incompetence. On top of everything else.

 

[Zlatan]

Think this party issue might actually bring Boris down. Something good might come out of it ?? Perhaps it wasn't a dead end after all.

 

[Woosh]

Think this party issue might actually bring Boris down. Something good might come out of it ?? Perhaps it wasn't a dead end after all.

When something goes wrong, it's the usual names Raab, Williamson and Boris.
Johnson should resign.

 

[Danidl]

I see all that but that doesn't explain why Omicron is predicted to both become dominant strain and reduce Delta infections.
There is a massive assumption been made that having Omicron will prevent future infection by Delta?? But we already know the reverse is not the case, so it seems to me Omicron and Delta could persist within same population.. As do Flu and colds at moment or even how various strains of cold (and flu) in fact do... Unless, I, m missing something? And, if so, what??

Yes, I get how Alpha was over run and pushed out of existence by future strains, but until now new strains have only been minor mutations and hence having had Delta you are highly unlikely to then catch Alpha, so it dies out... But Omicron seems almost a different virus completely.
Will infection by Omicron prevent future Delta infections. If not Delta will persist, simply growing at a slower rate???

At present Delta is the global front runner, but remember all the strains from Wuhan original and all the others are out there each infecting people at their own rates, and as yet we have only had a mere 260 million certified illnesses out of a possible 8000 million. In fairness we are making it a little more difficult for this zoo of viruses since we now have 33 million doses being jabbed daily and 8000 million doses in arms to date. It seems that Delta because of its high production rate of viruses is the leader in breakthrough infections, and this Omicron will be up there with it.

 

[Jesus H Christ]

Short answer ..Yes

How many kg of carbon were released as a result of the production of the steel, the rolling of the steel, the fabrication, manufacture of the generator / gear box, turbine blades, production of cement, extraction of concrete aggregate, transport of the above and excavation of the foundations?

 

[Danidl]

I've still got a very old version of this:

View attachment 44964

Coleman - Unleaded Sportster™

Unleaded Sportster™

www.coleman.eu

Damned nuisance, originally, as it said not to use leaded petrol, but we did not then have unleaded. Hence, had to buy outrageously expensive fuel.

It was extremely easy to light, powerful and only medium-noisy!

I remember chatting to the telephone and water repair crews back in the day when I was a young lad and they would use these things to heat up the brazing irons used to seal underground telephone wires and cables. They would have maybe 3 irons in the fire, and take one off and drip molten tin into the joint,. The irons were big ignorant lumps of copper probably a pound weight on the end of metal sticks.

 

[Danidl]

How many kg of carbon were released as a result of the production of the steel, the rolling of the steel, the fabrication, manufacture of the generator / gear box, turbine blades, production of cement, extraction of concrete aggregate, transport of the above and excavation of the foundations?

850kw peak equates to about 360 kwhr average per hour , I leave it as an excercise to the diligent student to work out what energy that produces in a 16 year period to date and then extrapolate for the remaining 16 years of the towers lifetime. For extra marks, they can work out the recovery process for the already extracted and processed steel . Note the concrete base remains a fixture and will be used in the replacement module,in 16 years.

 

[Jesus H Christ]

850kw peak equates to about 360 kwhr average per hour , I leave it as an excercise to the diligent student to work out what energy that produces in a 16 year period to date and then extrapolate for the remaining 16 years of the towers lifetime. For extra marks, they can work out the recovery process for the already extracted and processed steel . Note the concrete base remains a fixture and will be used in the replacement module,in 16 years.

So you don’t know.

 

[oyster]

They would have maybe 3 irons in the fire

Oooh, errr, missus?

 

[Woosh]

So you don’t know.

carbon footprint of wind turbines is improving all the time as we have more and more taller units.
3/4 of its carbon footprint is from the pylon steel, the rest is split into fibre glass, cast iron, aluminium, copper.

It is currently estimated at 11g of CO2 per kWH of electricity produced based on 25 year lifecycle.
I reckon the new offshore wind farms can achieve around 5g of CO2 per kWH.
The one at Danidl's uni is much smaller and older, maybe 10 times worse, 50g of CO2 per kWH.
The progress on wind power has been astonishing. 15 years ago, I was more or less a skeptical, not so much that I did not believe that global warming happens, it was just that I could not imagine we can get rid of burning fossil fuel in my lifetime. Now I do.

https://ore.catapult.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Carbon-footprint-of-offshore-wind-farm-components_FINAL_AS-3.pdf

 

[flecc]

The progress on wind power has been astonishing. 15 years ago, I was more or less a skeptical, not so much that I did not believe that global warming happens, it was just that I could not imagine we can get rid of burning fossil fuel in my lifetime. Now I do.

.
Ditto.

But while I also think we CAN can get rid of burning fossil fuel in my lifetime, I doubt we actually will, going by our long history of failure to do what is necessary and even essential.
.