Brexit, for once some facts.

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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Johnson shouldn't be let off the hook for his incompetence in foreign affairs - and humanity:

Growing concern for Richard Ratcliffe 17 days into hunger strike
Husband of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe does not yet want to back down in his protest outside Foreign Office
 

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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it is the number who get infected and have chronic ill effects or die.
agreed.
However, the efficacy of covid vaccines need to be put into cost comparison with emerging treatments, not on the individual basis but on statistical basis because governments have spent and will still spend billions on them.
Just look at the cost effectiveness of test and trace. We pay roughly for a million tests a day in the UK. That does not change the number of people needing hospital treatment nor dying of covid. Is it worth it?
Each Pfizer jab costs us roughly £40. Is it worth it? For the individual, yes, but for the whole 65 millions?
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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If the effect of CV19, were as trivial as a dirty nose for a few days, we would easily have had a global pandemic, but nobody would have cared a hoot.
That is what it's like for 97%.

The important number is not how many people get infected , and recover without any ill effects, it is the number who get infected and have chronic ill effects or die.
As you've said, 2% die. Some 4.8% here inthe UK are over 80. Some 2.4% are over 85. Nearly 1% are over 90. They all in the common region of death. When the measure of the cause of death being Covid is any death within 28 days of a positive test, and 60 days for the annual figures, it's very easy to magic up 2% being due to Covid when the tests are known to be hopelessly unreliable anyway. And this is without even looking at the large proportion of the population who have chronic preconditions that can cause death anyway.

When we look anywhere in the world where there are populations of both vaccinated and unvaccinated people
Once again, I look at here where the numbers contradict you, as I've shown both nationally in the UK and with microcosms in London and your country.

The flu vaccine which I take every year, also only lasts a few months , and needs to be reformulated between seasons
Exactly, reformulated to keep it acting as a vaccine because the 'flu is constantly evolving year by year. Covid-19 has also been evolving, but the vaccines aren't, as witness the "same again" boosters.
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guerney

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 7, 2021
11,390
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As you've said, 2% die. Some 4.8% here inthe UK are over 80. Some 2.4% are over 85. Nearly 1% are over 90. They all in the common region of death. When the measure of the cause of death being Covid is any death within 28 days of a positive test, and 60 days for the annual figures, it's very easy to magic up 2% being due to Covid when the tests are known to be hopelessly unreliable anyway. And this is without even looking at the large proportion of the population who have chronic preconditions that can cause death anyway.
"Magic up"? What about excess deaths? Granted, some excess deaths were caused by lockdowns, a consequence of people's increased proximity to beds, which are statistically the most deadly objects in the home. :eek:
 
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jonathan.agnew

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 27, 2018
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agreed.
However, the efficacy of covid vaccines need to be put into cost comparison with emerging treatments, not on the individual basis but on statistical basis because governments have spent and will still spend billions on them.
Just look at the cost effectiveness of test and trace. We pay roughly for a million tests a day in the UK. That does not change the number of people needing hospital treatment nor dying of covid. Is it worth it?
Each Pfizer jab costs us roughly £40. Is it worth it? For the individual, yes, but for the whole 65 millions?
Test and trace is about tory "subcontracting", not covid. The cost of vaccinating the population with pfizer is a great deal less than any of the alternative options.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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30,598
"Magic up"? What about excess deaths? Granted, some excess deaths were caused by lockdowns, a consequence of people's increased proximity to beds, which are statistically the most deadly objects in the home. :eek:
As I and others have previously shown, the annual numbers of deaths vary very widely so the excess depends on the period being compared with. When we have a decade pre covid and a decade post covid we'll have a better idea of the truth in this respect.

However, since the context of the discussion is vaccines, the following is far more important:

Total deaths said to be due to Covid = 142,000

Official Covid deaths figure for 2020 without vaccines = 72,000

Therefore Covid deaths to date for 2021 with vaccines = 70,000

Given that much of the population during 2020 would have gained some antibody immunity from their prior infections, then topped up by the vaccines, the performance of vaccines this year in preventing deaths has been extremely poor to say the least. Put bluntly, they've failed.
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,365
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Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
Test and trace is about tory "subcontracting", not covid. The cost of vaccinating the population with pfizer is a great deal less than any of the alternative options.
I am more skeptical now than last year. I don't doubt that in the absence of treatment, vaccines were better than nothing. We now know that vaccines can't keep up with variants and covid will be with us for a very long time, we need herd immunity now.
 
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guerney

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 7, 2021
11,390
3,234
As I and others have previously shown, the annual numbers of deaths vary very widely so the excess depends on the period being compared with. When we have a decade pre covid and a decade post covid we'll have a better idea of the truth in this respect.

However, since the context of the discussion is vaccines, the following is far more important:

Total deaths said to be due to Covid = 142,000

Official Covid deaths figure for 2020 without vaccines = 72,000

Therefore Covid deaths to date for 2021 with vaccines = 70,000

Given that much of the population during 2020 would have gained some antibody immunity from their prior infections, then topped up by the vaccines, the performance of vaccines this year in preventing deaths has been extremely poor to say the least. Put bluntly, they've failed.
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,191
30,598
we need herd immunity now.
We appear to be very close to it in London. Looked again at the Lambeth latest, they were of course London's hardest hit with Delta:

Only 50.9% now with two jabs.

Infection rate at 104/100k, a quarter of the national rate.

Death rate still zero, nationally 1.6
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,191
30,598
So what, as I said it depends what you compare it with. I can make their figure much higher or much lower. I've already long ago covered all this. Why don't you have a look at the annual official deaths over the last decade or so to see how wildly it changes year on year.

Then you'll see how it abruptly changes by several tens of thousands.

But I see you've ignored the much more important evidence of the vaccine's failure. We should have seen a very substantial drop in the number of deaths due to Covid this year if the vaccines were really any good, but the drop isn't there. They failed.
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,191
30,598
Not that surprised by the story, what is amazing is that it’s in the Daily Mail.
I’m just as surprised by this front page from the Daily Express:

Just say sorry for the mess, Prime Minister
The Prime Minister has emphatically refused to apologise despite the growing pressure from Tory MPs.
The job of these newspapers is to protect the Tory Party.

They'll sacrifice a Prime Minister who is damaging it.

They've done it before, Anthony Eden over Suez, Margaret Thatcher when the cracks showed, Theresa May over her failures, now Boris Johnson if necessary.
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guerney

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 7, 2021
11,390
3,234
So what, as I said it depends what you compare it with. I can make their figure much higher or much lower. I've already long ago covered all this. Why don't you have a look at the annual official deaths over the last decade or so to see how wildly it changes year on year.

Then you'll see how it abruptly it changes by several tens of thousands.
Are you seriously suggesting that the very substantial increase in excess deaths detailed in that article, is coincidental?!!? o_O
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,191
30,598
Are you seriously suggesting that the very substantial increase in excess deaths detailed in that article, are coincidental?!!? o_O
In part they could be, 80,000 isn't such a big deal in a 67 million population. A bad winter or a tough 'flu year can grow the number by that. Do like I've done a year ago and look at the excess deaths history and the huge variations year by year so you can post from that knowledge.

Or more importantly stop dodging the far more important part of my post, the figures proving the vaccines failure.
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