No need for change of tune; it is quite conceivable that both of those will happen.
Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
- Start date
But it's the same people who've been saying there will be a continuous increase through to hundreds and thousands by Christmas.
Now some of them suddenly saying continuous fall from now, following this new trend.
I think Covid is being over hyped now by many, especially by the boffins who've been making a good living out of it. Over 97% of us haven't caught it. When it's caught the great majority scarcely suffer anything or nothing at all, most of the young seem fairly immune and most over 30 have vaccine protection now anyway, lessening any ill effects.
As I posted a few days ago, Covid-19 is a 'flu for the 21st century at most, like 'flu, kills a few, most get over it and the vast majority don't ever catch it. Maybe it will need an annual jab for the elderly and vulnerable, possibly combined with the 'flu jab.
Meanwhile time to stop the panicking and get back to normality.
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I disagree. The pattern shows a clear link to the average temperature and humidity.
Last year, the new cases were very low in the months of July and August so why should it be different this year beside the extra peak caused by football in June?
If, as apparently in the USA, we have severely under-counted Covid cases, models based on inaccurate numbers of who have had Covid (plus those vaccinated) would tend to over-estimated rate of infection.I disagree. The pattern shows a clear link to the average temperature and humidity.
Last year, the new cases were very low in the months of July and August so why should it be different this year beside the extra peak caused by football in June?
Covid cases in US may have been undercounted by 60%, study shows
Number of reported cases ‘represents only a fraction of the estimated total number of infections’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/26/us-covid-cases-undercounted-study
I think covid cases are undercounted everywhere because more people have antibodies, fewer have severe enough symptoms to bother to test.
Nevertheless, they are infectious and will continue to participate in mutations.
That's why the ONS survey is a good indication of how probable we are to come into proximity with an infectious person (currently 1/75).
So a substantial growth in cases from 31st May to the present while under all the restrictions.I disagree. The pattern shows a clear link to the average temperature and humidity.
Last year, the new cases were very low in the months of July and August so why should it be different this year beside the extra peak caused by football in June?
Meanwhile Sweden with a voluntary approach went from 1439 cases per day on 31st May to 247 a day now, the opposite to us and as ever, much better.
Now we have the voluntary approach too, so let's see what happens, shall we?
You might be surprised.
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That's the stuff, keep the hysteria going!
What would we do without crisis to panic over?
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It actually suggests that we might be closer to an end than would otherwise be the case. With far more people already protected to some extent by having been infected. Also that so many might not even have realised they wre infected - which makes its impact on at least a subset of us appear minimal.
All I was doing was suggesting one possible mechanism underlying failure of projections.
What really would surprise me is if whatever happens unequivocally demonstrated the superiority of voluntariness over mandatoriness of restrictions - or vice versa.
Flecc, according to the worldometer website about 10% of UK people have had this illness to date. The UK figures for deaths have always been suspect, because of the arbitrary cut off date of 1 month . 4.5 M are deemed no longer in treatment and about 1M are still in treatment. ..the more recent cases. The statistics for long covid or for serious long term chronic complaints of lung or heart or cerebral are only developing , but are looking like 10% of the infected and "recovered". These are not the statistics of a winter flu.
I suppose it comes down to whether you believe that natural selection is a good thing or not among humans.
Interesting to speculate on the impact vaccination - and the choice of whether to get vaccinated or reject - might have on the population.
If the attitude of rejecting is in any way related to heritable characteristics, those very characteristics might reduce the viability of those who have them. Remembering that at least some aspects of research have shown surprisingly small pressures can have significant impacts over the years.
Can't help imagining that the Trump-ist republicans who have been so anti-vaxx might push the balance point over a little. At least, those who have excluded themselves from the pool.
I've been preaching this for over a year now with the comparable countries of the UK and Sweden. The latter's voluntary approach has proved far superior throughout in terms of both infection rates and deaths. That's the opposite of what virtually all here were telling me last year, that Sweden's approach would be disastrous.
And now it's happening again, disaster by Christmas etc. That won't happen if we just let the public get on with it, but I fear that might not happen, the authorities changing course yet again and messing up once more, since already Johnson is getting twitchy.
As I insisted early on last year and since, choose a policy and the stick rigidly to it. Both work well, voluntary or enforcement, but never keep switching mid stream since that ends with the worst of both worlds, as we've more than adequately shown.
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I am not against the idea of 'freedom day', ie the Swedish way.
in order to live with covid, we need to:
1. stop the virus until we have vaccines.
2. after that, we need a very large percentage of our population to have antibodies to reduce the damage.
So there needs to be a strategy transition sometime around July.
However, our government should explain its strategy, the word 'freedom' sounds very wrong.
I would welcome us to join the EU electronic vaccine passport scheme.
Saying Freedom Day is misleading, their approach has been almost entirely voluntary throughout, with a minimum of cost and disruption to normal life. Ours has been for the maximum of disruption and cost with no benefit whatsoever, quite the opposite.
I've much doubt this government could explain anything to the public without leaving them utterly confused and not knowing what to do for the best. The best thing ministers can do is keep their mouths firmly shut, since when they speak they as often as not contradict each other, adding to the confusion.
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3. Do everything they can to speed up diagnosis and improve treatment. As with so much of medicine, time from first sign to start of appropriate treatment is critical. And having a good, effective, available treatment - preferably one which does not require a hospital setting - would be a major help.
The UK Government over the last 20 months have been adherents to the philosophy of Robert Frost.. at at every fork in the road, have taken the road less traveled and unfortunately that has made all the difference.
They obviously mis-read and instead followed the idiocy of David George Hamilton Frost.