Brexit, for once some facts.

oldgroaner

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This from the Lancet
:D
The idea of protecting more of the population by delaying the second dose is predicated on a joint statement by the JCVI and Public Health England (PHE) that a first dose provides 89–90% efficacy (protection).4, 5 This is contrary to the clinical data or efficacy generated from real-life clinical observational data from Israel.6, 7 How did the JCVI arrive at their estimate of 89%? The JCVI performed an unplanned, retrospective analysis of the randomised clinical trial data. They compared COVID-19 cases in the vaccine group versus the control group from a 6-day window (15–21 days), selected retrospectively after examining the data. The resulting 89% efficacy (95% CI 52–97) was based only on roughly 20 events. Retrospective analyses in therapeutic trials can be hypothesis-generating but should not be used to treat individuals. The JCVI then made a major assumption that the 89% effectiveness persists from day 21 to day 85 in the absence of the second dose,4, 5 for which no empirical evidence was adduced. In a further major, incorrect assumption, the JCVI stated “There is currently no strong evidence to expect that the immune response from the Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca vaccines differ substantially from each other”.5 No scientific data on mRNA vaccines exists to support this assumption. The available quality peer-reviewed, published immunology data would refute the assumptions documented by the JCVI and PHE.4 mRNA vaccines had never been used therapeutically in humans. The JCVI assumption that mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2 and Moderna's mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) would behave similarly to the AZD1222 viral vector DNA vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca is not supported by published evidence.8, 9, 10 Phase 1/2 trial data of AZD1222 show a substantial specific anti-virus spike protein T-cell responses at day 7, which peaks at day 14.8 This response is not seen with BNT162b2. Furthermore, there are marked quantitative differences in the production and duration of neutralising antibodies (NAbs). The mRNA vaccines show marked falls in NAb titres (compared with the DNA vaccine) in the period before the scheduled second dose (day 22 and day 29 for BNT162b211, 12 and mRNA-1273,9 respectively), something we have specifically highlighted as occurring in all age groups.3 Inevitably, NAb titres will continue to fall during days 21–85, leading to very reduced immunity and increased risk to individuals of infection, especially in frail older people. An efficacy of 52·4% was reported out to day 22 for BNT162b2,13 and efficacy of 50–60% has been reported in observational cohort studies from Israel covering the same period.6, 7 UK's delayed second dose strategy for BNT162b2 is, in our view, a misguided conjecture. It will yield some protection for the individual after a first dose: how much, and for how long, is unknown and without patient consent. The population risk is that the UK's delayed second dose could strongly favour the emergence of consequential SARS-CoV-2 variants resulting from sub-optimal or partial immunity. The Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has also documented concern about emergence of variants as a result of the delayed second dose.14 Sub-optimal vaccination will create selective pressure facilitating the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants, which could result in a persisting pandemic. New vaccines, covering such variants, can be made but will require time for testing, mass production, and distribution. We have no concerns regarding the second dose of AZD1222 at 12 weeks, as this is supported by evidence. However, if escape variants arise due to sub-optimal dosing with BNT162b2, they will likely be resistant to other vaccines that target the same viral spike protein. In conclusion, we would strongly recommend that the UK Government reverts to the two doses in a 3-week schedule (94% efficacy) for BNT162b2; or, as recently supported by WHO and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, adopt no more than a 6-week delay to the second dose “in exceptional circumstances”.15, 16

Some fell upon Tory Fanboy Stony ground and did not prosper
 
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oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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This from the Lancet
:D
The idea of protecting more of the population by delaying the second dose is predicated on a joint statement by the JCVI and Public Health England (PHE) that a first dose provides 89–90% efficacy (protection).4, 5 This is contrary to the clinical data or efficacy generated from real-life clinical observational data from Israel.6, 7 How did the JCVI arrive at their estimate of 89%? The JCVI performed an unplanned, retrospective analysis of the randomised clinical trial data. They compared COVID-19 cases in the vaccine group versus the control group from a 6-day window (15–21 days), selected retrospectively after examining the data. The resulting 89% efficacy (95% CI 52–97) was based only on roughly 20 events. Retrospective analyses in therapeutic trials can be hypothesis-generating but should not be used to treat individuals. The JCVI then made a major assumption that the 89% effectiveness persists from day 21 to day 85 in the absence of the second dose,4, 5 for which no empirical evidence was adduced. In a further major, incorrect assumption, the JCVI stated “There is currently no strong evidence to expect that the immune response from the Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca vaccines differ substantially from each other”.5 No scientific data on mRNA vaccines exists to support this assumption. The available quality peer-reviewed, published immunology data would refute the assumptions documented by the JCVI and PHE.4 mRNA vaccines had never been used therapeutically in humans. The JCVI assumption that mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2 and Moderna's mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) would behave similarly to the AZD1222 viral vector DNA vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca is not supported by published evidence.8, 9, 10 Phase 1/2 trial data of AZD1222 show a substantial specific anti-virus spike protein T-cell responses at day 7, which peaks at day 14.8 This response is not seen with BNT162b2. Furthermore, there are marked quantitative differences in the production and duration of neutralising antibodies (NAbs). The mRNA vaccines show marked falls in NAb titres (compared with the DNA vaccine) in the period before the scheduled second dose (day 22 and day 29 for BNT162b211, 12 and mRNA-1273,9 respectively), something we have specifically highlighted as occurring in all age groups.3 Inevitably, NAb titres will continue to fall during days 21–85, leading to very reduced immunity and increased risk to individuals of infection, especially in frail older people. An efficacy of 52·4% was reported out to day 22 for BNT162b2,13 and efficacy of 50–60% has been reported in observational cohort studies from Israel covering the same period.6, 7 UK's delayed second dose strategy for BNT162b2 is, in our view, a misguided conjecture. It will yield some protection for the individual after a first dose: how much, and for how long, is unknown and without patient consent. The population risk is that the UK's delayed second dose could strongly favour the emergence of consequential SARS-CoV-2 variants resulting from sub-optimal or partial immunity. The Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has also documented concern about emergence of variants as a result of the delayed second dose.14 Sub-optimal vaccination will create selective pressure facilitating the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants, which could result in a persisting pandemic. New vaccines, covering such variants, can be made but will require time for testing, mass production, and distribution. We have no concerns regarding the second dose of AZD1222 at 12 weeks, as this is supported by evidence. However, if escape variants arise due to sub-optimal dosing with BNT162b2, they will likely be resistant to other vaccines that target the same viral spike protein. In conclusion, we would strongly recommend that the UK Government reverts to the two doses in a 3-week schedule (94% efficacy) for BNT162b2; or, as recently supported by WHO and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, adopt no more than a 6-week delay to the second dose “in exceptional circumstances”.15, 16

Some fell upon Tory Fanboy Stony ground and did not prosper
I hate the phrase "no strong evidence". At one level it is simple enough. But it could apply when there is absolutely no evidence at all. Or when there is a vast quantity of evidence that has not been deemed "strong". Two very different cases.
 
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Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
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I asked a straightforward question
And how many are we getting regularly, which is rather more relevant

"Think if you did homework rather than prejudge you wouldn't make silly comments.
Let me answer that

I think if you actually replied to my question rather than prejudge you wouldn't make silly comments.
And your answer was non factual, just this for example
"All involved see no reason, because of early agreements on contracts and tight tolerances with respect to delays and penalties, why supply shouldn't match orders placed. It has done so far."
You mentioned AZ, but none of the others.
In other words you can't answer the question as you have no more idea of the numbers than I have.

Honestly you can't help yourself, can you?
Og
This was number at end of yesterday.
Screenshot_20210305_114353.jpg

They seem to be having few problems with supply. As they say proof of the pudding etc.
In fact according to all sources supply will be increasing as the new vaccines become available.
You continually search for negatives, ignore what's actually happeningwith data, about efficacy, supply, delivery or procurement.
I think Susan, who between yourself and Agnew have bullied out of the way, summed you up perfectly and did have best way of dealing with you. ie. Politely ask you not to reply, which you insisted on doing continuing your attitude of insult and derision.
I wonder how many posters simply stop commenting? Oxygen James and Susan made good sensible contributions. They have left.. I wonder why.
For goodness sake OG, just examine the situation. Vaccines in UK are going extraordinarily well,in every respect.
You will not accept a single point about any of it.
The Tory fan boy comment is ludicrous, offensive, totally wrong, unneeded and utterly wrong.
Just explain to to us all, even if you are correct about dosage delay, how Tories benefit by a failed vaccine roll out. It's utterly stupid. It's like suggesting Manchester Utd manager ties his best players laces together at beginning of game. How does risking roll out benefit anybody involved. They get support for first 6 weeks of roll out then kicked out when it fails. It's an utterly ridiculous premise. I think Susan tried to explain that to you. Look where it got her.
You aren't an idiot but you sure as hell talk like one a lot.
Put your book of silly similes away, stop the insults, Tory fan boy comments and just examine what's happening here and abroad and try to show some appreciation to the folk who have helped get us in a much more optimistic position instead of searching for negatives and arguing/insulting.
We should be moaning about the lack of financial reward for NHS workers, which is appalling. 1% pay rise after all this is terrible.
You have been asked on at least 4 occasions to explain how Tories benefit by undermining vaccine roll out. Either answer it properly or stop bringing same stupid point up. And don't just offer some silly simile, platitude, insult or numbers game.

And, BTW, I accept perfectly well the delay of Pfizer could be a big mistake, I was about first to criticise it when Tony Blair first announced it as an idea. But if its wrong it's been a wrong decision for a mistake made by Sage and made with best intentions. Not for some bizar alledged not happening benefit to Johnson.
At moment it's looking like a justified and right decision. But we will not know for a good few months.
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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Just explain to to us all, even if you are correct about dosage delay, how Tories benefit by a failed vaccine roll out.
Because there's no such thing as seeing a failed vaccine roll-out because:

It's already been admitted that the vaccines don't prevent infection but apparently reduce hospitalisation, thus excusing the vaccine for those who still get infected.

The high and growing numbers who have contracted Covid-19 continuously reduce the future possible infection rate.

The very high past death rate has greatly decreased the number of high risk people who might die from Covid.

The 'flu jab that the high risk elderly have been getting this winter is partially effective against these SARS 2 viruses.

The level 4 lockdown will have worked to an extent.

Most of the population will never catch Covid-19 anyway or have no symptoms.

In other words, some improvement will have been seen even if we'd only been injected with a placebo, so it's not a matter of failure, just one of relative success.
.
 

Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
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Because there's no such thing as seeing a failed vaccine roll-out because:

It's already been admitted that the vaccines don't prevent infection but apparently reduce hospitalisation, thus excusing the vaccine for those who still get infected.

The high and growing numbers who have contracted Covid-19 continuously reduce the future possible infection rate.

The very high past death rate has greatly decreased the number of high risk people who might die from Covid.

The 'flu jab that the high risk elderly have been getting this winter is partially effective against these SARS 2 viruses.

The level 4 lockdown will have worked to an extent.

Most of the population will never catch Covid-19 anyway or have no symptoms.

In other words, some improvement will have been seen even if we'd only been injected with a placebo, so it's not a matter of failure, just one of relative success.
.
Don't encourage him for goodness sake Flecc.
And the reduction in death rates in over 80's? When we don't get another wave post opening country?
When kids, hospitals, etc are all open with no rise in cases will be down to luck, lockdown or weather? But obviously not the vaccine.
I agree, we don't know yet. If by June, July or August?? we can't reopen country... Its failed. If we do get back to normality what will you put it down to? Placebo?
By this argument we shouldn't have bothered with expense of vaccine. Just inject saline. Can't believe you really believe what you have just posted flecc.
 
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oyster

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I see Cyprus will be allowing us in if we have had both vaccinations. From 1 May. Which fails as we have no proof and many will not get their second by the time they might wish to go. I have just had my first and told it would be 12 weeks before my second.
 
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Danidl

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While OGs quotation from that Lancet article focussed on the decision process which led the UK to defer the second Jab,. The attached section is rather chilling... And in the light of developments in the rise of the "UK variant".. prophetic.

"The population risk is that the UK's delayed second dose could strongly favour the emergence of consequential SARS-CoV-2 variants resulting from sub-optimal or partial immunity. The Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has also documented concern about emergence of variants as a result of the delayed second dose.
14
Sub-optimal vaccination will create selective pressure facilitating the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants, which could result in a persisting pandemic. New vaccines, covering such variants, can be made but will require time for testing, mass production, and distribution.
We have no concerns regarding the second dose of AZD1222 at 12 weeks, as this is supported by evidence. However, if escape variants arise due to sub-optimal dosing with BNT162b2, they will likely be resistant to other vaccines that target the same viral spike protein."
In other simple words ...
Give the second Pfizer jab at the 21 day interval or have consequences.
Give the second AZ jab after 12 weeks. .. It seems safe to do so.
 

wheeler

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Jun 4, 2016
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"Someone said the NHS could vaccinate the whole country in one week if we had the vaccines."... That makes sense to me. Giving a jab is not rocket science. Anyone, especially St Johns Ambulance, Knights of Malt, Dentists, Vets, can do the job.. and as I have said, I have given myself the flu jab on a few occasions.
My jag was given by a dentist, I did however avoid the chap with the rubber gloves that went all the way up to his armpits.
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
32,613
80
Og
This was number at end of yesterday.
View attachment 41105

They seem to be having few problems with supply. As they say proof of the pudding etc.
In fact according to all sources supply will be increasing as the new vaccines become available.
You continually search for negatives, ignore what's actually happeningwith data, about efficacy, supply, delivery or procurement.
I think Susan, who between yourself and Agnew have bullied out of the way, summed you up perfectly and did have best way of dealing with you. ie. PI think Susan, who between yourself and Agnew have bullied out of the way, summed you up perfectly and did have best way of dealing with you. ie. Politely ask you not to reply, which you insisted on doing continuing your attitude of insult and derision.
I wonder how many posters simply stop commenting? Oxygen James and Susan made good sensible contributions. They have left.. I wonder why.
For goodness sake OG, just examine the situation. Vaccines in UK are going extraordinarily well,in every respect.
You will not accept a single point about any of it.
The Tory fan boy comment is ludicrous, offensive, totally wrong, unneeded and utterly wrong.
Just explain to to us all, even if you are correct about dosage delay, how Tories benefit by a failed vaccine roll out. It's utterly stupid. It's like suggesting Manchester Utd manager ties his best players laces together at beginning of game. How does risking roll out benefit anybody involved. They get support for first 6 weeks of roll out then kicked out when it fails. It's an utterly ridiculous premise. I think Susan tried to explain that to you. Look where it got her.
You aren't an idiot but you sure as hell talk like one a lot.
Put your book of silly similes away, stop the insults, Tory fan boy comments and just examine what's happening here and abroad and try to show some appreciation to the folk who have helped get us in a much more optimistic position instead of searching for negatives and arguing/insulting.
We should be moaning about the lack of financial reward for NHS workers, which is appalling. 1% pay rise after all this is terrible.
You have been asked on at least 4 occasions to explain how Tories benefit by undermining vaccine roll out. Either answer it properly or stop bringing same stupid point up. And don't just offer some silly simile, platitude, insult or numbers game.

And, BTW, I accept perfectly well the delay of Pfizer could be a big mistake, I was about first to criticise it when Tony Blair first announced it as an idea. But if its wrong it's been a wrong decision for a

At moment it's looking like a justified and right decision. But we will not know for a good few months.
Oh Dear, you will never stop this attempt to attack me at all and every opportunity no matter how obscure the reason
I think Susan, who between yourself and Agnew have bullied out of the way, summed you up perfectly and did have best way of dealing with you. ie. Politely ask you not to reply, which you insisted on doing continuing your attitude of insult and derision.
Now you are twisting what was said yet again. She asked me not to reply to her question and I did not

I simply reminded her that there is an ignore button as sideways public swipes by effectively naming people you don't want to reply is simply like your comments ill mannered and presumptuous.

And coming out with remarks such as "Where have I landed?" is not the way a new member should refer to those already present.
And basically I am fed up of your childish attacks in the role you have tried to commandeer from day one
You are most definitely not qualified to stand in judgement of others. Look to your own behaviour first
And to imagine this to be true

"mistake made by Sage and made with best intentions. Not for som, e bizar alledged not happening benefit to Johnson."
Why didn't you read the extract from the Lancet I posted?
"The Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has also documented concern about emergence of variants as a result of the delayed second dose. "
Then you are even dumber than I thought that rather tends to indicate it wasn't a decision they were happy with!
Nothing is done by this government without benefit to Johnson being the prime reason.
people are being blinded to earlier dreadful failures and deaths by this "Number Game" to look daring and dynamic
And they fall for it too
 
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Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
8,086
4,290
Oh Dear, you will never stop this attempt to attack me at all and every opportunity no matter how obscure the reason
I think Susan, who between yourself and Agnew have bullied out of the way, summed you up perfectly and did have best way of dealing with you. ie. Politely ask you not to reply, which you insisted on doing continuing your attitude of insult and derision.
Now you are twisting what was said yet again. She asked me not to reply to her question and I did not

I simply reminded her that there is an ignore button as sideways public swipes by effectively naming people you don't want to reply is simply like your comments ill mannered and presumptuous.

And coming out with remarks such as "Where have I landed?" is not the way a new member should refer to those already present.
And basically I am fed up of your childish attacks in the role you have tried to commandeer from day one
You are most definitely not qualified to stand in judgement of others. Look to your own behaviour first
And to imagine this to be true

"mistake made by Sage and made with best intentions. Not for som, e bizar alledged not happening benefit to Johnson."
Then you are even dumber than I thought.
Nothing is done by this government without that being the prime reason.
You did nothing of the kind. You called myself, JHC and Susan Tory fan boys. Read my last post again. There isn't a single insult.
But for what it's worth now. You are behaving like a fool.
And not a word about how Tories benefit from a failed vaccine roll out. And you should have realised by now, I might be many things, but I ain't dumb.
You are devaluing this thread to bring it to a level of knock Tories, knock roll out, knock government and anyone who tries in slightest to see the positives PHE etc have achieved. It also seems to me, from your comments to Susan, you have taken ownership of thread. She, s a newcomer and no right to question you. You bullied her.
If somebody offers a different opinion to you, you call them dumb. If they say something supportive of NHS, JVCI, Sage or Govt, they are Tory fan boys. Then you have audacity to say I insult you.
I was going to say you are as bad as Polly, that's not fair on him (or her). You are much worse, more indoctrinated and far more insulting.
So, to be fair to pair of us, put me on ignore. When you do I will reciprocate. But you won't, you, ll carry on as you did when Susan asked you to not reply.
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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Don't encourage him for goodness sake Flecc.
And the reduction in death rates in over 80's? When we don't get another wave post opening country?
When kids, hospitals, etc are all open with no rise in cases will be down to luck, lockdown or weather? But obviously not the vaccine.
I agree, we don't know yet. If by June, July or August?? we can't reopen country... Its failed. If we do get back to normality what will you put it down to? Placebo?
By this argument we shouldn't have bothered with expense of vaccine. Just inject saline. Can't believe you really believe what you have just posted flecc.
Try harder
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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You did nothing of the kind. You called myself, JHC and Susan Tory fan boys. Read my last post again. There isn't a single insult.
But for what it's worth now. You are behaving like a fool.
Care to prove that? I re examined the posts
That was an assumption made by you
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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80
My jag was given by a dentist, I did however avoid the chap with the rubber gloves that went all the way up to his armpits.
I must say that was very sporting! did he give you the FSpace or the new fangled E type looking one?
And does he have any more?
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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I agree, we don't know yet. If by June, July or August?? we can't reopen country... Its failed.
No, it won't fail for the reasons stated, UNLESS a new variant overcomes us once again. In that case it still isn't failure, just as the current variants aren't being seen as failure

Can't believe you really believe what you have just posted flecc.
Of course I believe it, it's all verifiable facts and why Woosh who has a lot of appropriate knowledge promptly agreed.
.
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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RTE news tries to have a good luck story each day, and todays one is very Brexit related. There is an English Shop in Brussels selling the stuff that the ex pats like.. Cream crackers, sausages, real rashers , Yorkshire Tea , Cadbury Chocolate ..maybe even Ovaltine. Well they were normally supplied by Waitroses, but just cannot get the goods now.and had to close up. However an Irish distributor SuperValu to the rescue. A twice weekly lorry load from Rosslare to Dunkirk ,is keeping them supplied with the equivalent custard creams and Tayto Crisps ( better than Walkers) and of course the traditional narrowback rashers, and sausages impossible to get on the continent.
 

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