Brexit, for once some facts.

soundwave

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But not in a job centre.
well if you do pi$$ on the floor and dont have a medical reason why you done it for no valid reason id imo you will get a few years in prison for a act of terror ;)
 
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oyster

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All this traffic light crap. Have any of them read their highway codes?

Red​
Red and Amber​
Green​
Amber​
Red​

So, we don't get to amber until we have been to green and are going back to red.

Yet the traffic light system starts with the lights all off. Then:

Red​
Amber​
Yellow​
Shade of green​
Another shade of green​

So it is very different. And bound not to have been colour-blind tested!
 

Danidl

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Many of us will remember seeing boards with several hand sanitiser dispensers mounted on them.

At the time, I was thinking that if things were bad enough to need them, it should not be allowed to go ahead.

I had already decided to avoid any crowded places. Either they were not really needed - they were just window dressing to make it look as if precautions were being taken - or they were grossly inadequate.
Refer back to my comments at the time... Ireland had gone into lockdown before Cheltenham. The Irish Italian Rugby match had been cancelled, and the St Patrick's weekend cancelled.
 

Danidl

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From today's farce. Sorry, briefing.

She adds that temperature checks for Covid-19 isn’t a very valid intervention because of the 14-day incubation period.

Is it a slightly valid intervention? A medium valid intervention? Or a wholly worthless intervention?

I'd argue that if a high temperature is a reasonable marker, then even if you only detect a few cases which happen top present at a critical time, it could be worth doing. (Most especially if high temperature coincides with high infectiousness.)

Q. What does the government intend to do to ease the double pressures on businesses in Northern Ireland impacted by the lockdown and by pending Brexit border checks?

Hancock says the government intends to deliver on the referendum result.


Complete non-answer.

Q. Do you think the prime minister should correct what he said in parliament, given that the only directive on a ban on care home visits came on 2 April, 10 ten days after the national lockdown?

Hancock says that on 13 March, extra guidance was introduced, after which many care home providers stopped visitors.

No comment needed.

Harries adds that R is a very standard way of comparing what’s happening and is an important measure, but the real outcome we need is a reduction in the number of cases.

It’s not just the R value, it’s the triangulation of all the evidence we have, she adds. It’s an important measure but not the only one.

Q. On a day when the R is up, are you absolutely confident that allowing an easing of measures ahead of a sunny, warm weekend is the right decision?

Hancock says R isn’t above 1, so it still meets the test.


It's the triangulation (Harries) but it's still the R number (Hancock).
Oyster. There might some variation here. The Head of the Irish National Virological centre , was on TV a few weeks ago, and stated that temperature spikes was not a significant marker. So there might be some genetic factor at play. You will recall that the Public Health in China was measuring forehead temperature before letting people on trains etc.
In any event the person is transmitting a few days before the onset of any temperature rise. But its such a simple measurement to take, that if it identifies 10% well thats 10% at least of infections twarted.
The R value is NOT a measurement. It is a computed value or quality metric based on measuring and counting cases. Unless one is systematically contact tracing, one does not get the data to compute an R value.
 

oldgroaner

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In the Telegraph
"
Boris Johnson: No public sector pay freeze and no austerity as UK emerges from coronavirus crisis
Prime Minister tells members of 1922 committee Government is looking at spending heavily on infrastructure as Britain exits lockdown

Is delirium one of the symptoms of Covid 19?
 

Barry Shittpeas

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In the Telegraph
"
Boris Johnson: No public sector pay freeze and no austerity as UK emerges from coronavirus crisis
Prime Minister tells members of 1922 committee Government is looking at spending heavily on infrastructure as Britain exits lockdown

Is delirium one of the symptoms of Covid 19?
Add in our self imposed economic sanctions due to Brexit and you start to wonder if he might be lying.
 

oyster

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Oyster. There might some variation here. The Head of the Irish National Virological centre , was on TV a few weeks ago, and stated that temperature spikes was not a significant marker. So there might be some genetic factor at play. You will recall that the Public Health in China was measuring forehead temperature before letting people on trains etc.
In any event the person is transmitting a few days before the onset of any temperature rise. But its such a simple measurement to take, that if it identifies 10% well thats 10% at least of infections twarted.
The R value is NOT a measurement. It is a computed value or quality metric based on measuring and counting cases. Unless one is systematically contact tracing, one does not get the data to compute an R value.
My point about temperature was really the words. I do not know how to interpret "very valid intervention". I am aware of the possibility of infecting before symptoms appear but as you say, its simplicity might just help a little. But if the measurement of temperature, the actual process, is too variable, it could be that temperatures values (as opposed to actual temperatures) are too wayward to be of any value.

Perhaps our PPE supplies have thousands of useless thermometers?

Agree that R is not a measurement Without testing, most mild cases will not be known to the statisticians. And sampling the population is difficult. Unlike opinion polls, the patchiness makes accuracy a problem.
 

Woosh

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The R value is NOT a measurement. It is a computed value or quality metric based on measuring and counting cases. Unless one is systematically contact tracing, one does not get the data to compute an R value.
UK government uses R to confuse all of us.
 
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Woosh

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Is delirium one of the symptoms of Covid 19?
symptom of Covid19.
The Pound is also heading for the plughole.
It's as low as I can remember, £1 buys you $1.21 and our government needs to borrow ever more. So far, they borrowed more than £300 billions since Covid.
Tax income dries up, they lose £50 billions a month income, spend £50 billions a month on Covid support.
 
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Barry Shittpeas

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UK government uses R to confuse all of us.
R is not confusing. Think of R as biscuits and your weight as hospital admissions. If you are fat and reduce R (your biscuit intake), after a few weeks your weight (hospital admissions) will reduce. If you then start eating lots of biscuits again (easing lockdown) and so more Rs, after a few weeks your weight ( hospital admissions) will rise.

R is an indicator of what is coming down the tracks in 8 to 10 weeks time. If R is greater than 1, you will first see a rise in the number of positive tests, then hospital admissions will rise, then ICU capacity will start to fill up and finally, the daily death toll will rise.

Everyone is getting a hard on and backslapping due to the falling death rate and hospital admissions, but R is creeping up and if that continues, it will undo the death and hospitalisation rate.
 

daveboy

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On TV this morning " Training Dogs to sniff out the virus" in the same way dogs can detect cancer and diabetes in people. early stages at the moment.
 
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oyster

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On TV this morning " Training Dogs to sniff out the virus" in the same way dogs can detect cancer and diabetes in people. early stages at the moment.
Coronavirus: Trial begins to see if dogs can 'sniff out' virus
A UK trial to see whether specialist medical sniffer dogs can detect coronavirus in humans is set to begin.

The dogs are already trained to detect odours of certain cancers, malaria and Parkinson's disease by the charity Medical Detection Dogs.

The first phase of the trial will be led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, along with the charity and Durham University.

It has been backed with £500,000 of government funding.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52686660

Thankfully, they explain using the old favourite measure: one teaspoon of sugar in two Olympic-sized swimming pools of water.

I'm not really clear how they could be deployed usefully. Can we really have enough trained dogs to make a meaningful impact given that each of us might only have the odour for a a few days? Or possibly, for months after we have ceased to be infectious.
 
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oyster

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Not much to surprise us.

Emergency teams condemn government's 'controlling' approach to crisis

Tories accused of withholding vital data, failing to respond to requests for guidance, and neglecting to reveal strategy
Local emergency planning teams tasked with responding to Covid-19 say their effectiveness has been compromised by the top-down, uncommunicative and controlling approach to the crisis by central government, according to a leaked official document.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/15/disaster-planners-condemn-government-controlling-approach-coronavirus-crisis
 

oyster

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Four day work week may help stop virus
As leaders around the world weigh the risks of reopening workplaces in the wake of the pandemic, researchers from the Weizmann Institute in Israel and the London School of Economics have a suggestion: Start off with a four-day in-office work week, followed by 10 days off. Why? It typically takes three days for someone infected with COVID-19 to become infectious to others. So, if someone becomes sick during their in-office period, it's likely they will be off during the moments they are contagious. Such a method could help reduce the number of new infections, paving a path to a fuller return to working life.

So it is fine for them to get infected, pass it on to their families, and (possibly) people in the shops they visit, etc.
 
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oldgroaner

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oldgroaner@oldgroaner

"Coronavirus vaccine boost as trials on monkeys show it stops virus reaching lungs" Now we have a vaccine to get Parliament back into the House of Commons
 
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Barry Shittpeas

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oldgroaner@oldgroaner

"Coronavirus vaccine boost as trials on monkeys show it stops virus reaching lungs" Now we have a vaccine to get Parliament back into the House of Commons
I don’t know why they aren’t back in the HoC. Is it not safe to return to the workplace or something? If they went back now, they could repay most of the £10000 each that they received to help them work from home.
 

Danidl

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R is not confusing. Think of R as biscuits and your weight as hospital admissions. If you are fat and reduce R (your biscuit intake), after a few weeks your weight (hospital admissions) will reduce. If you then start eating lots of biscuits again (easing lockdown) and so more Rs, after a few weeks your weight ( hospital admissions) will rise.

R is an indicator of what is coming down the tracks in 8 to 10 weeks time. If R is greater than 1, you will first see a rise in the number of positive tests, then hospital admissions will rise, then ICU capacity will start to fill up and finally, the daily death toll will rise.

Everyone is getting a hard on and backslapping due to the falling death rate and hospital admissions, but R is creeping up and if that continues, it will undo the death and hospitalisation rate.
R is the exponent in the mathematical model. Consequently it is not a measurement, it is a derived value obtained from measurements .. of counting admissions and inference as to the number of contacts.
At the moment, the UK death rate is half of what it was at peak, and reflects the effects of the most severe stages of the UK lockdown, of 5 weeks ago.
 

Woosh

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R is an indicator of what is coming down the tracks in 8 to 10 weeks time.
when WHO gave out R=2.2-2.5 in January, the period was 5 days.
It took an average 5 days for one person to infect 2.2-2.5 new persons.
How come that now the period is extended to 8 to 10 weeks?
You have scientists like those who work or WHO and government scientists like those recruited by Dominic Cummings.
You know when some of them cannot give a straight answer.
 
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