Brexit, for once some facts.

[Barry Shittpeas]

SP. Your calculation is based on linear model, the infection rate is potentially exponential.
The point of a lockdown is to reduce the transmission rate below sustainable growth, ..which means below 2 .. the carrier and the next victim. Then if the numbers get low enough ,full contact tracing can be done, selective isolation or internment and the problem is wiped out.
I don't think the Chinese are lying. Look at the Worldmeter data. They have potential for a massive explosion in numbers of infected. Every person in the hospital in Wuhan is a virus machine ..but unlike many Western leadership they know it.

I thought about that, but aren’t we trying to make the naturally exponential infection rate, linear with the lockdown measures? My point is that a linear model will take 18 months to 3 years to work its way through the population.

I know that as more people develop immunity, the natural infection rate won’t be as rapid, but I think it’s going to take months of lockdown to get to that stage.

 

[oyster]

full contact tracing can be done

Not at all sure that will be possible - the sheer scale makes it a gigantic challenge.

 

[flecc]

I‘m sceptical about what is happening in China. I think they are lying.

Surely they can't be, the military and police are in charge so their results must be good. Or wasn't that what you posted?
.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

Surely they can't be, the military and police are in charge so their results must be good. Or wasn't that what you posted?
.

No it’s a Jeremy Corbyn style communist regime

 

[flecc]

Did you know that police in Manchester had to break up over 660 parties last weekend?

Another 6 and they could have blamed the Devil.
.

 

[flecc]

No it’s a Jeremy Corbyn style communist regime

Where they get things done!
.

 

[oyster]

I missed this, but Emily spoke well:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1248021250267656192

In particular, the BBC presenter rebuked using confrontational language in relation to the illness and swiftly took down the idea that Covid-19 is a “great leveller”, highlighting that it has hit key workers and those on low incomes the hardest.

Government ministers have repeatedly used militant language in relation to Covid-19, including the first secretary of state Dominic Raab who just days ago described Boris Johnson, who remains in intensive care, as a “fighter”.

The BBC presenter said:

You do not survive the illness through fortitude and strength of character, whatever the prime minister’s colleagues will tell us, and the disease is not a great leveller – the consequences of which everyone, rich or poor, suffers the same.​

She added:

Those on the frontline right now; bus drivers and shelf-stackers, nurses, care home workers, hospital staff and shopkeepers are disproportionately the lower-paid members of our work force.​

They are more likely to catch the disease because they are more exposed.​

Those who live in tower blocks and small flats will find the lockdown tougher. Those in manual jobs will be unable to work from home.​

This is a health issue with huge ramifications for social welfare, and it’s a welfare issue with huge ramifications for public health.​

 

[Woosh]

I thought about that, but aren’t we trying to make the naturally exponential infection rate, linear with the lockdown measures? My point is that a linear model will take 18 months to 3 years to work its way through the population.

I know that as more people develop immunity, the natural infection rate won’t be as rapid, but I think it’s going to take months of lockdown to get to that stage.

yes, we try to keep a constant flow of cases that the NHS can still cope.
Let's assume that an acceptable level of fatalities is 500 a day and the average hospital stay is 22 days.
The NHS will need to devote 500 x 22 = 11,000 beds to COVID19.

 

[oyster]

yes, we try to keep a constant flow of cases that the NHS can still cope.
Let's assume that an acceptable level of fatalities is 500 a day and the average hospital stay is 22 days.
The NHS will need to devote 500 x 22 = 11,000 beds to COVID19.

Thought: What we actually could do with is a good way of identifying those who will only get a very minor illness.

Try to get as many of them (which could include me) as possible infected so that a huge number of people become immune. Possibly within a fortnight, or not too much longer. (Or at least, we really hope they/we do.)

 

[Woosh]

Thought: What we actually could do with is a good way of identifying those who will only get a very minor illness.

Try to get as many of them (which could include me) as possible infected so that a huge number of people become immune. Possibly within a fortnight, or not too much longer. (Or at least, we really hope they/we do.)

unfortunately, for every 4 benign cases, you get one that needs hospitalisation.
we'll soon run out of beds and many more doctors and nurses will get it too.
The long term solution is like Barry suggested, we accept a level of fatalities until treatment and vaccine are found.
We do so with fatalities in transport and in other diseases.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

yes, we try to keep a constant flow of cases that the NHS can still cope.
Let's assume that an acceptable level of fatalities is 500 a day and the average hospital stay is 22 days.
The NHS will need to devote 500 x 22 = 11,000 beds to COVID19.

Precisely. And a synthetic linear infection rate of 500 per day will take three years to achieve the inevitable herd immunity. Without a vaccine, it’s check-mate.

 

[oyster]

unfortunately, for every 4 benign cases, you get one that needs hospitalisation.
we'll soon run out of beds and many more doctors and nurses will get it too.

If you knew, with a high degree of certainty, who would be in each camp... If partner and I were in the "mild" group, and chose to get infected, spent a fortnight indoors, all done from our personal points of view.

Further, knowing who would only be mildly affected implies knowing, at least with somewhat greater certainty than at present, who would suffer more seriously. Allowing better support of them, indeed, better isolation.

 

[oyster]

I hope they have been properly disinfected, just in case. It really wouldn't look good if they all got covid-19:

With the traditional Royal Maundy Service unable to go ahead today, the Queen has nonetheless marked the occasion, by personally dispensing Maundy money to pensioners across the UK by post.

Every year the monarch ceremonially distributes specially-minted small silver coins to select individuals, normally aged over 70, and who have been nominated by their local church dioceses for their outstanding contributions to their local church and community life. The ceremony usually takes place during a church service marking the day on which Jesus held the Last Supper with his disciples.

Instead to mark the occasion this year, a letter from the Queen along with the Maundy gift of the special purses and money has been posted to all 188 recipients – arriving this week in time for Maundy Service.

 

[Woosh]

Precisely. And a synthetic linear infection rate of 500 per day will take three years to achieve the inevitable herd immunity. Without a vaccine, it’s check-mate.

to do that, you will need a pretty rigid and extensive lockdown.
I don't think we can afford the economic cost: restricted public transport, tourism, sport, entertainment and keep a huge group of those over 70s permanently under curfew.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

unfortunately, for every 4 benign cases, you get one that needs hospitalisation.
we'll soon run out of beds and many more doctors and nurses will get it too.
The long term solution is like Barry suggested, we accept a level of fatalities until treatment and vaccine are found.
We do so with fatalities in transport and in other diseases.

Theres a big question mark over immunity. And keyworkers are disproportionately exposed, as Emily maitlis pointed out. 14 died from covid in london alone. Without a vaccine supply lines could well be affected in due course (either through illness or unavailability, would you continue working when .25 of your colleagues have become severely I'll?)

 

[Danidl]

I can’t believe that that is not already happening. Whoever comes up with a vaccine will hit the jackpot with this virus. It wouldn’t surprise me if a vaccine mysteriously appears from within China.

Well I would fully expect China to be the first with a viable vaccine. However it will be no mystery.
1. They have invested extremely heavily in STEM, whereas western countries have invested in Bankers and lawyers
2. They have more high technology manufacturing capacity.
3. They have a view of human rights , different from the Western view. .. Their view is that Society or Community rights trump individual rights ...And of course the ruling party determines what community rights need protecting.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

to do that, you will need a pretty rigid and extensive lockdown.
I don't think we can afford the economic cost: restricted public transport, tourism, sport, entertainment and keep a huge group of those over 70s permanently under curfew.

So at some point, without a vaccine, we will have no alternative but to remove the measures keeping the infection rate linear and let it explode exponentially. As I say check-mate. How can you plan for that?

 

[Danidl]

Well I would fully expect China to be the first with a viable vaccine. However it will be no mystery.
1. They have invested extremely heavily in STEM, whereas western countries have invested in Bankers and lawyers
2. They have more high technology manufacturing capacity.
3. They have a view of human rights , different from the Western view. .. Their view is that Society or Community rights trump individual rights ...And of course the ruling party determines what community rights need protecting.

Of course it does bot follow that a vaccine which works on Chinese will be as effective on Eskimos.

 

[oyster]

Of course it does bot follow that a vaccine which works on Chinese will be as effective on Eskimos.

On the other hand, it does not necessarily follow that a disease which affects ethnic Chinese will affect Inuit in the first place! (Though I strongly suspect it will.)

So far as I know, race might have some sigificance in how it affects people, but no race appears immune. So there seems a reasonable possibility that a Chinese-developed vaccine will work between adequately and excellently in those who are not ethnic Chinese if it does actually work in ethnic Chinese.

 

[oldgroaner]

Hand the task to the military. They have proper people who have actually done stuff and know things. These clowns have gone from boarding school to university to a government quango to Downing Street. They know and have done FA. Under normal circumstances they can P.R. their way through, but Coronavirus doesn’t allow that. It’s time to step up to the plate and show us what you’ve got, and these clowns can’t do that.

"
Sadly they have already shown us what they've got.
They must go for all our sakes