Brexit, for once some facts.

wheeler

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Another question - undertakers have been given some advice on covering faces before moving bodies. But just how long could they remain infectious? (Which is really to question how fast cyanide pills would work.)
Well if the bodies cough or sneeze somebody hasn't done their job.
 
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Barry Shittpeas

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One makes a model, assigns feasible numbers and then refines these when better information is available.
That’s just a lot of unnecessary words to say, I have no idea what I’m talking about and make it up as I go along.

In the current situation, no information is better than bad information. Bad information tends to be the sort of guesswork you are posting.
 

Barry Shittpeas

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MIT research shows coughs and sneezes can propel moisture particles 6 metres in still air, so they recommend 8 metres separation.
.
I saw that, but I can’t believe the rate of infection is due to sneeze and cough splatter. If someone coughs or sneezes, they clear a 2KM radius at the moment.

I’ve read some unsubstantiated reports that the virus remains in suspension and sufficiently active in the air to cause infection for 6 hours +. There is nothing official to support that, but it could explain the rate of infection.
 

flecc

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And in a supermarket, even with limited number of shoppers, what happens? I suggest there could be at the very least a shopper every five minutes.
Every few seconds and enforced close proximity is my experience within my large supermarket, the separated queue outside being nothing other than tokenism.

Plus, due to the nature of the area, half of all the shoppers during the week appear to be over 70.
.
 
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oldgroaner

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That’s just a lot of unnecessary words to say, I have no idea what I’m talking about and make it up as I go along.

In the current situation, no information is better than bad information. Bad information tends to be the sort of guesswork you are posting.
I reckon that puts Danidl light years ahead of the government's "scientific" advisers, at least his estimates are not deliberate lies.
What I find quite remarkable that over a hundred years after the 1919 flu epidemic, we are really only using the same basic technique to let it run it's course.

I am further reminded that the first use of vaxination was by using Cowpox and it was carried out without all the long term testing we now insist on, and saved countless lives.

If I am infected with this virus and someone says, this is likely to work but we don't know what the long term side effects will be, my answer would be give me the bloody thing better to go out with a bang than a whimper.
What have I got to lose?
 
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oyster

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I reckon that puts Danidl light years ahead of the government's "scientific" advisers, at least his estimates are not deliberate lies.
What I find quite remarkable that over a hundred years after the 1919 flu epidemic, we are really only using the same basic technique to let it run it's course.

I am further reminded that the first use of vaxination was by using Cowpox and it was carried out without all the long term testing we now insist on, and saved countless lives.

If I am infected with this virus and someone says, this is likely to work but we don't know what the long term side effects will be, my answer would be give me the bloody thing better to go out with a bang than a whimper.
What have I got to lose?
Given that the developers are acting in good faith and wouldn't knowingly provide something that would be bad for me, I think I would be towards the front of the queue for a vaccine even if it has not yet been tested to the highest standards.
 

oldgroaner

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Every few seconds and enforced close proximity is my experience within my large supermarket, the separated queue outside being nothing other than tokenism.

Plus, due to th nature of th area, half of all the shoppers during the week appear to be over 70.
.
This is where we can expect the government source to introduce a new initiative

"The logical way to deal with this outbreak is to set up a booth at the supermarket checkouts, with all the competing would be vaccines available and a notice:

"Over 70 and feeling lucky?
This is your chance of help find a cure or dying in a good cause
play Russian Roulette with one of our selection of Vaccines

Cambridge Analytical should have no difficulty selling that, after selling Brexit it should be a breeze.
And from the Government's point of view, you don't even need vaccines likely to work.
It's still a winner
 
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wheeler

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MIT research shows coughs and sneezes can propel moisture particles 6 metres in still air, so they recommend 8 metres separation.
.
Presumably those particles will adopt a trajectory similar to any projected item under the influence of gravity and will be well below face height by 2m from its origin.

Sneezers, coughers and splutterers, aren't supposed to be out in public anyway.
 
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Barry Shittpeas

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Every few seconds and enforced close proximity is my experience within my large supermarket, the separated queue outside being nothing other than tokenism.

Plus, due to th nature of th area, half of all the shoppers during the week appear to be over 70.
.
I managed to obtain a click & collect slot last week. It was brilliant. A large gazebo was set up in the car park. I just drove in, stayed inside the car, the guy put all the shopping by the tailgate of my car and then retreated 10 metres away whilst I loaded the car.

This needs rapidly expanding. We have a lot of trained retail staff suffering hardship. They could be redeployed to support this mode of shopping.
 
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flecc

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Presumably those particles will adopt a trajectory similar to any projected item under the influence of gravity and will be well below face height by 2m from its origin.
Assuming someone doesn't sneeze when doing a handstand. :)

Seriously though, there's often a breeze or other air movements such as from air conditioning which can mess up any predictions, so luck is a very big element.
.
 

oyster

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Presumably those particles will adopt a trajectory similar to any projected item under the influence of gravity and will be well below face height by 2m from its origin.

Sneezers, coughers and splutterers, aren't supposed to be out in public anyway.
No - I think not. Tiny particles are affected by Brownian motion, mass movement of air, static charge, etc., to a much greater extent than more substantial particles - or bricks.

From the H5N2 epidemic of 2015 (published last year):

However, the airborne viral particles could be transported over hundreds of kilometers, thus resulting in much broader impacts.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-47788-z
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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I managed to obtain a click & collect slot last week. It was brilliant. A large gazebo was set up in the car park. I just drove in, stayed inside the car, the guy put all the shopping by the tailgate of my car and then retreated 10 metres away whilst I loaded the car.

This needs rapidly expanding. We have a lot of trained retail staff suffering hardship. They could be redeployed to support this mode of shopping.
Classed as essentials like Halfords, Screwfix and MachineMart are doing similar to a degree, no store entry, service at the front with staff collecting the required item and contactless only payments.
.
 

Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
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I reckon that puts Danidl light years ahead of the government's "scientific" advisers, at least his estimates are not deliberate lies.
What I find quite remarkable that over a hundred years after the 1919 flu epidemic, we are really only using the same basic technique to let it run it's course.

I am further reminded that the first use of vaxination was by using Cowpox and it was carried out without all the long term testing we now insist on, and saved countless lives.

If I am infected with this virus and someone says, this is likely to work but we don't know what the long term side effects will be, my answer would be give me the bloody thing better to go out with a bang than a whimper.
What have I got to lose?
The trouble is, we have many more risk averse lawyers, advisors and managers who don’t understand the technical intricacies of the thing they are dealing with these days. Because they don’t understand, and to cover their arses, they just reach for the abort switch with everything. It’s easy to do that and people only want to do the easy stuff.
 

Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
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Classed as essentials like Halfords, Screwfix and MachineMart are doing similar to a degree, no store entry, service at the front with staff collecting the required item and contactless only payments.
.
Ah Screwfix. Those were the days. They seem so long ago.
 

sjpt

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Using my own local experience. ... According to the Irish HSE, we have 60 confirmed cases in my county. Assuming that the real figure is 10 times that .. 6000 , there are 128,000 people in the county.
I think the real figure is much higher than 10x confirmed cases. There is a very high bar for a case to be confirmed; virtually no testing except in extreme cases, no registration of people self-isolating even when they know they almost certainly have it, and likelihood that many infected people have such mild symptoms they don't know they have it.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Ah Screwfix. Those were the days. They seem so long ago.
They are still thriving, they recently opened a second store near me, so I now have a choice of the Beckenham border to the north east or Biggin Hill to the south east, both around 4 miles.
.
 
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