Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

Does that change significantly in one year?

the fertility rate lags behind the statistics roughly by a generation. The 1.84 fertility rate reflects the issue of post war prosperity, when people get richer, they have fewer children and also later.
I have 6 siblings, I and they have 2 children each. I am a granddad of just 1. That shows you how fast fertility rate impacts our society.
There is nothing wrong with the statistics.
The main thing is the growth of the population as a percentage, it's gone up too much, too fast since Maastritch.
0.1%-0.2% per annum is good, 0.3% for a short period is tolerable, anything over 0.4% will cause troubles. That means that the local society is incapable of supporting itself and needs importing extra labour. You could put it down to the fertility rate below 2.

 

[oyster]

Did any of the polling organisations predict turnout?

From reports so far, it looks to be absolutely incredibly high. Whilst I am not going to even suggest what it means in terms of results, it might somewhat undermine the basis of some of the predictions.

 

[oyster]

 

[Woosh]

Did any of the polling organisations predict turnout?

From reports so far, it looks to be absolutely incredibly high. Whilst I am not going to even suggest what it might mean in terms of results, it might somewhat undermine the basis of some of the predictions.

I like high turn out, more likely to lead to a hung parliament.

 

[oldgroaner]

Those Jews are always whining about something aren’t they OG. I mean, what’s ever happened for them to get all wound up about? Honestly, those Jews.

It's the Romans that started it, and what did they ever do for us?

 

[oyster]

It's the Romans that started it, and what did they ever do for us?

Hoc est, quod Graeci coepi, et semper non quid faciet nobis?

(For those of us without the benefit of a classical education at Eton:

It's the Greeks that started it, and what did they ever do for us?)

 

[oldgroaner]

Hoc est, quod Graeci coepi, et semper non quid faciet nobis?

(For those of us without the benefit of a classical education at Eton:

It's the Greeks that started it, and what did they ever do for us?)

We didn't get many Greeks coming over Hadrian's wall, so I'll pass on that.

 

[oldgroaner]

I have 6 siblings, I and they have 2 children each. I am a granddad of just 1. That shows you how fast fertility rate impacts our society.

For a moment Got lost in the statistics there
You French, you know a thing or two eh? sorry Woosh but may I ask, is there a secret French power to generate grandchildren through your siblings?
Just kidding ..

 

[Woosh]

the Telegraph has an interesting chart, comparing 2017 GE with today's.
The chart shows that TM's lead was higher than Bojo's in the days preceding the GE, 10% lead against BJ's 6%. The actual result for TM was 2.4%.
It does point to a hung parliament.

General Election Results and Maps 2019

Full results, maps, and expert analysis of the 2019 general election: find out your local constituency result.

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[oldgroaner]

I like high turn out, more likely to lead to a hung parliament.

Literally?
...
oops
Sorry

 

[oyster]

People shouldn't be able to select where to vote - despite the possibility that students' votes could be critical and they can choose.

Further, there would be immense schadenfreude if he lost his own seat by one vote. (Though I would prefer a landslide against him.)

Boris Johnson has broken from tradition by not voting in his own constituency, PA points out.

He was photographed with his dog at polling station in Methodist Central Hall, in the marginal constituency of Cities of London and Westminster where the Conservative are defending a narrow majority of 3,148.

The party faces a high-profile challenge in the seat from Chuka Umunna, who joined the Liberal Democrats this year after quitting the Labour party earlier this year..

Johnson opted to vote in central London despite a heavy tactical voting campaign to oust him from his own Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat.

 

[50Hertz]

Done the dirty deed.

 

[flecc]

Johnson opted to vote in central London despite a heavy tactical voting campaign to oust him from his own Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat.

That doesn't affect him of course, since a PM doesn't have to be elected as an MP.

For example Sir Alec Douglas Hume became Tory PM for a while though not an MP, and there have been others historically.

There's hope for all of you yet without losing a deposit, the pay's good and housing and car come free.
.

 

[flecc]

Done the dirty deed.

Ditto in horrible weather. Despite the early claims of a high turnout which were probably those most involved like us, I still believe it will be quite low once the weather puts off the masses of don't knows and don't really cares.
.

 

[oyster]

That doesn't affect him of course, since a PM doesn't have to be elected as an MP.

For example Sir Alec Douglas Hume became Tory PM for a while though not an MP, and there have been others historically.

There's hope for all of you yet without losing a deposit, the pay's good and housing and car come free.
.

You might be right in a legalistic discussion - but I think it would be devastating for the tories.

 

[oyster]

No news but confirms what many of us think:

UK no longer makes running on world stage, says ex-No 10 adviser
John Casson blames absence of strategic thinking about UK role in world

Britain has not made the running on any foreign policy issue since at least 2013 and suffers from a fundamental absence of strategic thinking about its role in the world, the most senior foreign policy adviser to David Cameron has said.

John Casson – who worked in Number 10 from 2010 to 2014 before becoming UK ambassador to Cairo until last year – warned of a lack of confidence across Whitehall about Britain’s role in the world. “We see lots of actors smaller than us by most metrics making more of a difference because they have a clearer-eyed sense of their strategic intent and the power they hold,” he said.

Speaking at a debate on future British foreign policy at Chatham House, he also lamented that no British prime minister since either Tony Blair or Gordon Brown had thought it worthwhile to invest in personal relations with foreign leaders, adding this judgment had cost Britain dear.

Casson criticised Boris Johnson, describing the prime minister’s strategy as haphazard. He said: “Boris Johnson makes speeches about the cult of the strongman and wanting to stand up to human rights abusers in certain situations, but then in other situations pops up and making contradictory signals to that.”

Without naming him, he also delivered a scathing assessment of a recent foreign secretary’s ability to think strategically.

Casson recounted: “I once got stuck in traffic in the back of a car with one of the most recent foreign secretaries and I said: ‘Given all of us in the Foreign Office spend our time trying to make sure you don’t do anything different from what we normally do, what is it the thing that you think you are trying to get us to do to leave behind as your legacy?’

“This person thought about it for a bit and said: ‘Well, I really think we should be trying to save the African elephant and leading on the international wildlife trade, and it is really important that we bring girls into school worldwide and I suppose one of these conflicts in the world, we should be taking a lead on solving.” We then had a discussion about whether Palestine, Libya, Syria or Yemen was particularly ripe for British intervention.”

Johnson repeatedly as foreign secretary highlighted the future of elephants, using one speech at Chatham House to admit he was “obsessed with the tragic fate of the African elephant”. He also said more girls in education was the key to unlocking some of the world’s greatest problems.

Casson added: “I say this by way of saying there has been an absence of any depth of strategic thinking not just at political level but also confidence amongst officials not just in the Foreign Office but across Whitehall to think clearly about what is the nature of the power that we hold.

“The bald fact for me is British foreign policy – as I was brought up to recognise it – came to an end in September 2013, when David Cameron made a conscious decision to stop being an activist prime minister on foreign policy after he lost the Syrian vote in the Commons. Since then it is very difficult to name an issue on which Britain has made the running in the international space.”

He insisted this was not a lament for liberal interventionism, but instead a breakdown in a pro-active optimistic foreign policy drawing on Britain’s strengths.

As a former foreign affairs private secretary to Cameron, he added a prime minister “needs to be on the telephone a lot and travel a lot and see a big part of their job as having relationships with foreign leaders for the sake of relationships with foreign leaders. Since Tony Blair, and perhaps Gordon Brown, we have not really had a prime minister that has had the capacity and the appetite to see as a fundamental slice of their job investing in those political relationships. It has cost us in terms of foreign policy outcomes.”

He said from his own experience at Number 10 that it is “a bloody battle” to get the prime minister to focus on foreign leaders since “the building is full of people who think it is a waste of time because it does not win you elections”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/12/uk-no-longer-makes-running-on-world-stage-says-ex-no-10-adviser

 

[flecc]

You might be right in a legalistic discussion - but I think it would be devastating for the tories.

I'd love to see it though.

And it could happen, if Johnson lost his seat do you really think the Tories would give up power if they won the election? Of course they wouldn't, they'd either still keep unelected Johnson as PM or could repeat what they did with Sir Alec, select someone right wing and unelected from the House of Lords to be PM.
.

 

[vfr400]

To repeat - they are propping up public services

The MAC report looked at a number of key public services - starting with health - and found EEA migrants contribute more to the NHS and social care than they use.

EEA workers make up an increasing share of the workforce in this sector, although historically the UK has relied more on nurses and doctors born in Commonwealth countries.

Wonder why places like Clacton-on-Sea (ex UKIP constituency) has a severe shortage of GPs , and when patients come to the nearest hospital the Chief Executive has to warn ‘Racists should not be treated at hospital’

“How do you deal with a patient who says they refuse to be treated by a black nurse, which is not uncommon?"

Homophobic and racist: Health chief launches criticism of north east Essex | ITV News

East Suffolk and North Essex Foundation Trust chief executive Nick Hulme was talking at an event organised by the Health Service Journal | ITV News Anglia

www.itv.com

He said it was “not by accident” that the town of Clacton-on-Sea in the area had elected a UK Independence Party MP in 2014, and that “the single most important issue in any election for the last six years has always been ‘immigrants’ as they’re described by our local population”.

To repeat, political spin!

 

[oyster]

I'd love to see it though.

And it could happen, if Johnson lost his seat do you really think the Tories would give up power if they won the election? Of course they wouldn't, they'd either still keep unelected Johnson as PM or repeat what they did with Sir Alec, select someone right wing and unelected from the House of Lords to be PM.
.

Certainly I agree they would not give up power. Not sure about a HoL person? Only if there is one who would be willing to renounce their title. There are probably enough egos within the HoC already without looking further afield.

 

[vfr400]

That would give the Tonies about 100 majority.
Few people would want to change side plus there is strong tactical voting.
I guess we'll see a hung parliament.
I reluctantly voted for Mr Corbyn by post.

Your out of sequence. That was in reply to this
"They might only be allowing a maximum of 4 Mr Zgjkiuytasdewrty’s per household". It's a joke!