Bosch CEO's prediction

[mark sutton]

Hi All,

Has been a while since i posted, but thought this one might be of interest. Took the time at Eurobike to corner the Bosch CEO and what he has to say about customer demographic and future electric bike growth is interesting: https://cyclingindustry.news/bosch-ceo-electric-bike-growth/?fbclid=IwAR30DUQB-Y-jiTQTW_qKWzI-IvJVziyzrnQBs1lJWK9NivjONxVi0-TrdRM

 

[cyclebuddy]

All the Bosch CEO is saying to me is that you'd be a fool to spend £2000/£3000/£4000+ on an electric bike now given their current drive systems are already obsolete and won't be worth a crap in a couple of years time once their much slimmer, lighter, more powerful motors/enhanced systems hit the market shortly.

It's exactly why I wouldn't spend much over a grand on a crank-driven e-bike until the tech has been optimised/stabilised, and there's still a good way to go if we believe the Bosch CEO in that article.

 

[danielrlee]

An interesting read. Thanks for posting.

 

[Fishy]

All the Bosch CEO is saying to me is that you'd be a fool to spend £2000/£3000/£4000+ on an electric bike now given their current drive systems are already obsolete and won't be worth a crap in a couple of years time once their much slimmer, lighter, more powerful motors/enhanced systems hit the market shortly.

It's exactly why I wouldn't spend much over a grand on a crank-driven e-bike until the tech has been optimised/stabilised, and there's still a good way to go if we believe the Bosch CEO in that article.

With that attitude, you'd never buy anything. Things are always evolving and improving. Whatever stage you buy something at, you do so in the knowledge that the next version will be better. By your logic, you'll be waiting for ever.

 

[vfr400]

I'm still waiting for the Bosch hub-motor. I guess that there's not so much profit in them, which is why we don't see them yet.

 

[KirstinS]

I'm still waiting for the Bosch hub-motor. I guess that there's not so much profit in them, which is why we don't see them yet.

I always assumed it to be a control thing akin to, say, apple. Oem only, dedicated frames, fully closed system. Release a hub and a one can take it and stick it in any frame (OK, that's a bit flippant but you get my drift)

 

[Nealh]

Knowing how Bosch operate if they bought a hub out, you probably would need to make a special tool to open one and you would for sure have to cut any motor connector off and carry out a bit of splicing and soldering.

 

[Deleted member 25121]

The e-bike division is Bosch's most profitable and they see a good future in it which perhaps explains why they're not so interested in yesterday's hub motor technology.

 

[cyclebuddy]

With that attitude, you'd never buy anything. Things are always evolving and improving. Whatever stage you buy something at, you do so in the knowledge that the next version will be better. By your logic, you'll be waiting for ever.

What I said is that I personally wouldn't spend much over a grand on a crank-driven e-bike until the tech has been optimised/stabilised. By that I mean I wouldn't pay through the nose for anything at or near (what Bosch deem is) the cutting edge now given its' inherent obsolescence, and given the tech (in terms of reliability, lightness, power, size, range) is no where near where it's capable of being in a comparatively short time. Fazua seems to me to be the way to go.

My older crank-drive hybrid (80Nm Bafang MaxDrive) cost me £1000 new. My newer Ebco crank-drive (58Nm TransX) hybrid cost £1100 new. If either suffered a major catastrophe like a motor failure outside of warranty, or a bad collision, or theft, I'd be far less bothered than if I'd spent say £2000-£3000 on (as a random example) a Cube... which IMHO didn't really offer anything more or different during my own test rides. And selling a £1000 e-bike to buy something newer/different incurs far less financial loss too.

Here's a quote from a major e-bike manufacturer that made me chuckle:
"It's highly unlikely you'll ever need to replace your electric bike battery due to their durability. When your ebike battery begins to cause you trouble, it's likely going to be time for an upgrade! Batteries are expensive on their own and you're best to buy yourself a new bike."

Unlike puppies, E-bikes are for Christmas, not for life

 

[Deleted member 25121]

What I said is that I personally wouldn't spend much over a grand on a crank-driven e-bike until the tech has been optimised/stabilised.

What makes you think it's not "optimised" and "stabilised" right now, the fact that Bosch and the other leading ebike electronics companies are investing in it rather than old hub motor technology?

 

[Fishy]

What I said is that I personally wouldn't spend much over a grand on a crank-driven e-bike until the tech has been optimised/stabilised. By that I mean I wouldn't pay through the nose for anything at or near (what Bosch deem is) the cutting edge now given its' inherent obsolescence, and given the tech (in terms of reliability, lightness, power, size, range) is no where near where it's capable of being in a comparatively short time. Fazua seems to me to be the way to go.

My older crank-drive hybrid (80Nm Bafang MaxDrive) cost me £1000 new. My newer Ebco crank-drive (58Nm TransX) hybrid cost £1100 new. If either suffered a major catastrophe like a motor failure outside of warranty, or a bad collision, or theft, I'd be far less bothered than if I'd spent say £2000-£3000 on (as a random example) a Cube... which IMHO didn't really offer anything more or different during my own test rides. And selling a £1000 e-bike to buy something newer/different incurs far less financial loss too.

Here's a quote from a major e-bike manufacturer that made me chuckle:
"It's highly unlikely you'll ever need to replace your electric bike battery due to their durability. When your ebike battery begins to cause you trouble, it's likely going to be time for an upgrade! Batteries are expensive on their own and you're best to buy yourself a new bike."

Unlike puppies, E-bikes are for Christmas, not for life

At what point is the tech optimised/stabilised in your opinion?
Whenever you buy a Bosch bike, as good as it is at the time, the next iteration is likely to be better.

 

[soundwave]

What makes you think it's not "optimised" and "stabilised" right now, the fact that Bosch and the other leading ebike electronics companies are investing in it rather than old hub motor technology?

he cant afford 3k for a pair of wheels let alone the rest of it pmsl you can pretty much nuke whats on the market now if you got 16-20k for a complete bike.

 

[cyclebuddy]

What makes you think it's not "optimised" and "stabilised" right now, the fact that Bosch and the other leading ebike electronics companies are investing in it rather than old hub motor technology?

Referencing the linked article "The main trend is integration and this has an impact on the size and weight of the component. We look for higher efficiency on power per kilogram too. With the new Performance CX we have a drive unit that is 25% lighter and smaller by 48% on the prior iteration."

Is it Bosch generation 4 this season? So will it be generation 5 in 2021? And 6 in ??

And then you compare Boschs (and everyones) huge 3+kg lumps against the diminutive in-frame 1.9kg Fazua. Okay, not yet comparable on torque, but that's the point... it can/will/likely be shortly.

he cant afford 3k for a pair of wheels let alone the rest of it pmsl

Actually, Soundwave, my speakers cost £10,800. How much were those cheap things you bought?

 

[soundwave]

Referencing the linked article "The main trend is integration and this has an impact on the size and weight of the component. We look for higher efficiency on power per kilogram too. With the new Performance CX we have a drive unit that is 25% lighter and smaller by 48% on the prior iteration."

Is it Bosch generation 4 this season? So will it be generation 5 in 2021? And 6 in ??

And then you compare Boschs (and everyones) huge 3+kg lumps against the diminutive in-frame 1.9kg Fazua. Okay, not yet comparable on torque, but that's the point... it can/will/likely be shortly.

Actually, Soundwave, my speakers cost £10,800. How much were those cheap things you bought?

pic make and model.

 

[cyclebuddy]

pic make and model.

What is this... you show me yours and I'll show you mine? This is way off topic, but just to satisfy your curiosity (and, no, I'm not going to tell you about my £9000 hand-built amplifiers):

Usher CP-8871 | AudioThesis 2.0

The debut of the original Dancer CP-8871 took the high end audio world by storm and it immediately became the benchmark for many audiophiles and reviewers around the world. Like its little brother the CP-8571, the CP-8871 is now updated with the exquisite USHER Diamond DMD tweeter. A perfect...

www.audiothesis.com

!

 

[soundwave]

What is this... you show me yours and I'll show you mine? This is way off topic, but just to satisfy your curiosity (and, no, I'm not going to tell you about my £9000 hand-built amplifiers):

Usher CP-8871 | AudioThesis 2.0

The debut of the original Dancer CP-8871 took the high end audio world by storm and it immediately became the benchmark for many audiophiles and reviewers around the world. Like its little brother the CP-8571, the CP-8871 is now updated with the exquisite USHER Diamond DMD tweeter. A perfect...

www.audiothesis.com

!

so lets see a pic of them in ur setup then anyone can post a link but spec wise 150w is what my tweeter uses i got 650w rms per side with a flat frequency response.

 

[soundwave]

the new server will be a 64 core cpu with 128 threads trx40

 

[Deleted member 25121]

Is it Bosch generation 4 this season? So will it be generation 5 in 2021? And 6 in ??

Spot on, crank motors and their controllers is where the action is. Why has development of hub motors and their controllers stalled?

Perhaps your safest bet would be to buy a penny farthing.

 

[cyclebuddy]

Why has development of hub motors and their controllers stalled?

Has it? Haven't you seen the new, smaller, lighter hub-drive offerings from Bafang this year? Hub drives are certainly a more mature market.

so lets see a pic of them in ur setup then anyone can post a link but spec wise 150w is what my tweeter uses i got 650w rms per side

This is exactly why I don't do hi-fi forums anymore! High quality audio isn't about power, it's about refinement (note the sensitivity value), which may be why leading hi-fi reviewers buy my speakers and not yours! But I'll post a picture tomorrow - with my newest £1100 crank-drive e-bike, just to keep the pic relevant to this thread.

 

[soundwave]

What is this... you show me yours and I'll show you mine? This is way off topic, but just to satisfy your curiosity (and, no, I'm not going to tell you about my £9000 hand-built amplifiers):

Usher CP-8871 | AudioThesis 2.0

The debut of the original Dancer CP-8871 took the high end audio world by storm and it immediately became the benchmark for many audiophiles and reviewers around the world. Like its little brother the CP-8571, the CP-8871 is now updated with the exquisite USHER Diamond DMD tweeter. A perfect...

www.audiothesis.com

!

so let us all see it then speakers and amps and ur setup what you have for real