Battery Fires

[Woosh]

According to The MacMaster (Youtube), a guy did an FOI request to leicester Fire Service basically asking for a breakdown of vehicle fires to show the proportion of EVs. They said that they couldn't provide that information because they only had records of totals, and they didn't record whether it was an EV or not. The MacMaster thinks that they might be trying to hide something. Do you think they would or wouldn't have that data, even approximate?

they may have an idea but wouldn't say.

 

[saneagle]

they may have an idea but wouldn't say.

I just looked at a bit of data and established that there are approximately 40 times as many ICE cars on the road as EVs. It's only since 2020 that EV sales started to pickup and the average age of all ICE cars on the road is approximately 10 years old, so there are as many ICE cars sold before 2015 as there have been since, and still on the road.

When they say that incidents of ICE vehicles catching fire is 5 times the chance of an EV, and taking into consideration how many of each are on the road, that would mean if you're sitting in an EV, the chance of a fire would be 8 times more likely than if you were sitting an any random ICE car, who's age is 78.2% likely to be in the range 12.5 years to 7.5 years.

Additional to that, you have to consider how well the cars are looked after. 20 year old cars could be full of bodges done by various owners over the years, when they installed various electrical accessories, chipped their ECUs, fitted non-standard exhausts and did various other "go faster" modifications. EVs would generally be left alone, partly because they're newer (about 2 years old average), and partly because they're more likely to be only dealer serviced, as the majority are/were on leases.

I'm no expert, but I would assume that the average 10 year old ICE car would be more likely to catch fire than a 2 year old one. We can only guess at the difference. What would you say - twice as much? If you went with twice as much, that would mean 16 times as much chance of a fire from any random EV compared with any random ICE car of the same age.

We all know that the internal resistance of battery cells increases as they wear out. Does that mean that EV batteries would run hotter as they age, or can all cooling systems cope with that? In other words are fires more likely in old EVs compared with modern ones and how will that change in the future?

To be honest, I don't care about any of that because the overall risk is low. I do, however have one major concern, which is increasing every day. When EVs catch fire, the flames flare out and set fire to anything around them. When we get to the day that every car in the carpark is an EV and one catches fire, surely, the whole carpark will go up in flames. This is what's happened on cargo boats transporting EVs and road transporters. You can probably include to an extent Luton Airport too. At the moment, if an EV goes off, it might set light to the ICE cars around it, but that's as far as it would go. If you look at what happens in battery storage for powerplants, when one module goes off, it sets lights to all the ones around it, and the fire becomes unstoppable. Now, they're building them with space and walls around each module to stop the fire from spreading. Would they have to do the same in a car park, like walls and space between the bays? That would be a massive problem because there's hardly enough parking space already. It could, of course, be solved if there would be a lot fewer cars requiring parking space.

 

[Woosh]

I'm no expert, but I would assume that the average 10 year old ICE car would be more likely to catch fire than a 2 year old one.

I reckon the probability is about the same. Consider that cars may last a million miles and most people would do a fith of that. Factors that may contribute to fire are so widespread that age of the car is one of many.
Quite a lot of EV fires are connected to one particular chemistry. Also, consider how fast battery technology improves, if you buy an EV today or next year, the probability of fire would be tiny. In 5 years, they would be solid state batteries, eliminating practically fire risks.
BTW, why Leicester for the FOI?

 

[saneagle]

I reckon the probability is about the same. Consider that cars may last a million miles and most people would do a fith of that. Factors that may contribute to fire are so widespread that age of the car is one of many.
Quite a lot of EV fires are connected to one particular chemistry. Also, consider how fast battery technology improves, if you buy an EV today or next year, the probability of fire would be tiny. In 5 years, they would be solid state batteries, eliminating practically fire risks.
BTW, why Leicester for the FOI?

Maybe he lives in Leicester. i don't know him, so I can't ask.

I think last time we looked at the causes of car fires, arson was one of the main causes, which brings me to the next question: Are all those Teslas set light to by activists going to be classed as EV fires and appear in the statistics? Everybody on both sides hates Teslas now, so it's going to be fun watching how this all plays out.

 

[saneagle]

You're a bit late mate!
Probably a good idea to delete that post to save boring everybody to death.

 

[Woosh]

Maybe he lives in Leicester. i don't know him, so I can't ask.

I think last time we looked at the causes of car fires, arson was one of the main causes, which brings me to the next question: Are all those Teslas set light to by activists going to be classed as EV fires and appear in the statistics? Everybody on both sides hates Teslas now, so it's going to be fun watching how this all plays out.

it's difficult to start a fire on a car with solid state battery. Lithium-ion batteries has oxygen, solid state batteries don't.

 

[AntonyC]

I think last time we looked at the causes of car fires, arson was one of the main causes, which brings me to the next question: Are all those Teslas set light to by activists going to be classed as EV fires and appear in the statistics?

Yes but deliberate fires are separated out:

FIRE0302: Primary fires, fatalities and non-fatal casualties in road vehicles by motive
Fire statistics data tables - GOV.UK

 

[saneagle]

Yes but deliberate fires are separated out:

FIRE0302: Primary fires, fatalities and non-fatal casualties in road vehicles by motive
Fire statistics data tables - GOV.UK

Thanks. It doesn't really help the Tesla drivers, though. If they look at the statistics, which show that the chance of getting burned in an EV is only 0.000335%, while a gang of lunatics dressed in black with ski masks are throwing molatovs at their nice new car that's stuck in a traffic jam.

 

[lenny]

Revealed: Fires in London sparked by 'dangerous' e-bikes and e-scooters double in three years
Exclusive: Standard investigation uncovers 120 injuries and 3 deaths in the capital linked to vehicles catching alight
"In 2022, firefighters from 31 brigades attended at least 141 fires involving e-scooters and e-bikes, which injured 35 people.

Last year that figure soared to at least 229 fires and 79 injuries."

Revealed: London fires sparked by e-bikes and e-scooters double in three years

Exclusive: Standard investigation uncovers 120 injuries and 3 deaths in the capital linked to vehicles catching alight

www.standard.co.uk

 

[Proboscis]

A stupid question, but has anyone tried wargaming what effect potential restrictions will have?

Anecdotally at least, it seems a number of these fires are being caused by riders in the delivery sector, who use their e-bike as a tool of their trade. There are already several problems with that sector:

1. Use of throttle e-bikes which are illegal
2. People with the right to work in the UK renting out their ID and substituting with people who aren't legally allowed to work
3. People delivering without the right to work living in overcrowded conditions, or in a modern slavery situation
4. Illegally upgraded bikes they use to to do their job quicker. Since such delivery couriers are not mechanics or electronic engineers, there must be a shady supply chain of people procuring, modifying and maintaining these bikes

Those are not legal bikes from Halfords or Argos (or Whoosh or Whisper), they're several shades of illegal to begin with. Why will restrictions designed to protect people legally buying e-bikes protect them from their neighbour who breaks the law in several ways and burns down their shared block of flats?

While I 100% agree there are some simple technical things that can be done to restore confidence in those consumer e-bikes, if there's a corner to be cut in the illegal world it'll be cut. I worry that technical measures improving the 'good' side of the market won't affect the illegal side and won't stop the battery fire headlines.

So do the rules think about what it'll do to the illegal supply chains etc? For example, if a decent BMS was just part of every pack made in China then economies of scale would make it more expensive to make a custom dangerous thing than a commodity safe one and safe would become the norm. But if you do a special UK only standard then there's always AliExpress or more nefarious import routes for the shady supply chain. If Deliveroo clamp down on ebike use, will those couriers just be hired by restaurants directly? etc etc.

When you have an adversary (people cutting corners to make money) you need to think several steps ahead of your next move.

 

[saneagle]

A stupid question, but has anyone tried wargaming what effect potential restrictions will have?

Anecdotally at least, it seems a number of these fires are being caused by riders in the delivery sector, who use their e-bike as a tool of their trade. There are already several problems with that sector:

1. Use of throttle e-bikes which are illegal
2. People with the right to work in the UK renting out their ID and substituting with people who aren't legally allowed to work
3. People delivering without the right to work living in overcrowded conditions, or in a modern slavery situation
4. Illegally upgraded bikes they use to to do their job quicker. Since such delivery couriers are not mechanics or electronic engineers, there must be a shady supply chain of people procuring, modifying and maintaining these bikes

Those are not legal bikes from Halfords or Argos (or Whoosh or Whisper), they're several shades of illegal to begin with. Why will restrictions designed to protect people legally buying e-bikes protect them from their neighbour who breaks the law in several ways and burns down their shared block of flats?

While I 100% agree there are some simple technical things that can be done to restore confidence in those consumer e-bikes, if there's a corner to be cut in the illegal world it'll be cut. I worry that technical measures improving the 'good' side of the market won't affect the illegal side and won't stop the battery fire headlines.

So do the rules think about what it'll do to the illegal supply chains etc? For example, if a decent BMS was just part of every pack made in China then economies of scale would make it more expensive to make a custom dangerous thing than a commodity safe one and safe would become the norm. But if you do a special UK only standard then there's always AliExpress or more nefarious import routes for the shady supply chain. If Deliveroo clamp down on ebike use, will those couriers just be hired by restaurants directly? etc etc.

When you have an adversary (people cutting corners to make money) you need to think several steps ahead of your next move.

In the first place, I'd like to see the police enforce the rules more for ebikes. To many of us, it's obvious which ones are illegal, and I see illegal ones nearly every time I ride my bike.

The higher power motors in the illegal bikes put a much higher strain on the battery, which is probably one reason that they're catching fire. Another is that they often have batteries in bags. They look OK when the bike is stationary, but when riding, the battery is jumping about in the bag, which can wear through wires.

The systems in the legal bikes are pretty sound and well thought out, but the problem is quality control. They make mistakes in production that find there way into ebikes, like poorly soldered joints, badly crimped connectors, BMSs that don't always shut down when they should and things like that. In the automobile industry, any safety critical points and controls are indicated in the documentation. For those, the manufacturers must work to a zero defect plan, which involves complicated statistical techniques and robust testing methods. The Chinese factories are a long way behind that, but they are learning and improving all the time. So, IMHO, nobody needs to make stuff more complicated. They just need to make it right.

 

[Nealh]

I saw two ebikes whilst walking in to town end of last week , both were illegal andpretty obvious to a trained eye and knowledge of the law. And you have probably guessed it , both deliveroo type fast food rider.