Article is self contradicting
The article is self contradicting. 'Since May 2011, the Chinese government has started to forbid the production of lead-acid batteries nationwide, causing a supply shortage of lead-acid batteries and subsequent price increase' vs china hopes to have 15% of ebikes using Li batteries in 3 years time. The price increases would therefore be to SLA batteries: restricted supply vs ongoing demand principal.
It's like the announcement that China has already (early to mid 2011) adopted the EU 250w/25kmh ebike standard for domestic application. I contacted a lady who works selling ebikes in Wuxi, and they'd never heard of any such pronouncement. China has over 120 mil ebikes/e-scooters on the road, with >98% set up for SLA batteries. A Bafang rep told me when I visited Suzhou in 2010 that the Chinese would never go for NiMh or Li batteries, because battery theft is such an issue. You see massive 12mm chains padlocked around e-scooter floors to stop the battery being lifted.
In Melbourne, Aust my 14Ah Li-ion battery cost $A700 mid-2011. That's about twice the price of a 48v 350w e-scooter in a bike shop in Shanghai. The article makes no sense, in terms of China veering off into Li batteries and abandoning SLA units.
The disposal and recycling of SLA batteries in China is a big issue, given they contain nearly the same kg of lead as a Toyota Corolla battery, but last about one-third as long due to the heavy demands an e-scooter places on them. Times 120mil e-scooters. Lead is not something you want percolating through your water supply.
We all know about peak oil having arrived. The concept of peak lead is of parallel interest.
Alan in Melbourne