I get the impression that excitement over (radical) developments that go beyond concept, feature less in these forums than previously. It could just be me being more picky - I am fairly happy with what I'm now using - an old converted touring bike for local use and a Decathlon 500E for longer rides. But as a retired 'technologist' I am still interested in where things are going. Any suggestions where I should be looking online?
Any new (radical) commercial developments in 2024-2025 and onwards?
- Thread starter peterjd
- Start date
Interesting to speculate where new technology may come in by market segments (some of these overlap !)
1) Commuter e-Bikes - there seems plenty available, good value budget bikes or slightly more luxurious , more expensive
2) E moutain bikes - lots of choice, gradually getting more sophisticated, more powerful and lighter, the 25km/hr max assist speed I think has less affect here than roadbikes because you are less likely to be going that speed on mtb trails
3) Road Sports Leisure Bikes - main issue is finding a solution that minimises the overhead of carrying motor/battery when people are cycling at > 25km/h
4) Folding ebikes - these seem very popular - this probably is one are where weight does play a bigger role if people have to carry the folded bikes
5) Kits - this covers all the above areas and the ability to tailor a bike to your needs. I wonder if the price advantage of this route is less than it once was
Improvement in battery weight/size and motor weight/size - I see this could particularly affect 3) and 4)
I wonder if changes to use criteria for the L1e-a and particularly the L1e-b e-bike classes (as @flecc has mentioned) would have the biggest effect on the market (e.g. need driving licence and insurance but not numberplates, mot, road tax) especially 1), 3) and 5)
1) Commuter e-Bikes - there seems plenty available, good value budget bikes or slightly more luxurious , more expensive
2) E moutain bikes - lots of choice, gradually getting more sophisticated, more powerful and lighter, the 25km/hr max assist speed I think has less affect here than roadbikes because you are less likely to be going that speed on mtb trails
3) Road Sports Leisure Bikes - main issue is finding a solution that minimises the overhead of carrying motor/battery when people are cycling at > 25km/h
4) Folding ebikes - these seem very popular - this probably is one are where weight does play a bigger role if people have to carry the folded bikes
5) Kits - this covers all the above areas and the ability to tailor a bike to your needs. I wonder if the price advantage of this route is less than it once was
Improvement in battery weight/size and motor weight/size - I see this could particularly affect 3) and 4)
I wonder if changes to use criteria for the L1e-a and particularly the L1e-b e-bike classes (as @flecc has mentioned) would have the biggest effect on the market (e.g. need driving licence and insurance but not numberplates, mot, road tax) especially 1), 3) and 5)
the cost of making Bosch style crank drive e-bikes has come down a fair bit, I expect we'll see more 'Chinese Bosch' next year.
Any changes could only come in very gradually, starting with LIe-A, the 15.5mph with up to 1000 watt class. Once any changes there proved to be commensurate with road safety, easements for the 28mph 4.5kW Moped class might then be possible, but of course this is a process taking years, not months.
The reason for that is that the government suffered from such a change long ago and haven't forgotten it. Decades ago they also wanted to get people out of cars and onto two wheels, so they thought that an easy to use low speed moped class would do the trick, 50cc mopeds limited to 30 mph. So since car drivers were already experienced road users tested for safety, they decided that they should be able to safely ride mopeds with a group P for such mopeds automatically added to their car driving licences.
Unfortunately it didn't work out well since that class had many accidents, worsening the road accident figures, so that concession was withdrawn for future use on 1st February 2001. Everyone who had passed their driving test before that date could retain the new Group P, Grandfather rights once again, but newbies would have to go through the whole rigmarole of a provisional group, L plates, CBT and moped driving test.
That is also another of the several reasons why there is no chance of getting EAPC (pedelec) law changed for higher speeds, powers, throttles etc, the government once bitten, twice shy.
Unfortunately the whole trend is towards more restriction, not less:
1) The EU's acceptance of Germany's S class of high speed pedelecs for general use came unstuck, since only two other countries of the EU's 28 at the time have ever allowed it. One of the two who did accept it have introduced further restrictions on them.
2) We added a 14 years lower age limit for pedelecs, Sweden went further making it 15 years.
3) France seeing an increase of abuse of pedelec law have introduced very harsh new penalties, a fine of up to 30,000 euros and prison sentences. Spain and some others have also been cracking down.
4) Europe has imposed a 20kph (12.5mph) limit on e-scooters instead of the US limit of 15mph, and our government has said it favours doing the same if they permit them eventually. Paris have gone a step further and completely banned them from their city.
So the climate for change is unfavourable to say the least and only very small steps might be possible.
The general use of the term e-bike for any sort of bike with a motor, including pedelecs, is a huge mistake, since the accidents and deaths on such as Sur-ron e-bikes has poisoned the expression. The police and the media now have firmly implanted in their minds that e-bikes are illegal and are acting accordingly. They are not wrong of course, e-bikes are NOT pedelecs, they are motor vehicles in law having no exemption from that.
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If manufacturer's were scrupuously honest in their ratings and stuck to the spirit of the law wouldn't most of the "legal" pedelecs and kits sold really be LIe-A ? i.e. most motors could run continuously at > 250W without overheating.
I remember that , my friends mum had one - that's the sort of what I was thinking for LIe-B. I guess you are much more likely to be injured in an accident on a bike rather than in a car - although maybe the car drivers are likely to die earlier from heart attacks, strokes, cancer and other sedentary linked diseases.
Not really, since technical document BS EN 15194 specifies the conditions and both the letter and the spirit of that is to allow far more than 250 watts as necessary. It only says that a motor should be able to run at 250 watts continuously without overheating, no mention of what it does when over 250 watts. This recognises that 250 watts only would be useless in practice in tougher circumstances. That's why they commonly reach between 400 and 600 watts net power for substantial periods yet still gain their EN 15194 certificate when tested.
Best do both, cycling and driving, but cycling the old safer way at circa 10 mph as I did for most of my life. Probably why I am now seeing 90 years as not just possible but maybe likely.
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