83.6% Anti-Dumping Tariff on Chinese E-bike. Where the Market will go?

[The Strong Goat]

Seems the anti-dumping Tariff on Chinese E-bikes is just inevitable.
https://www.bikebiz.com/business/e-bike-tariffs

No intention to discuss the anti-dumping tariff decision itself since there is too much behind it, but where do you think the E-bike market in UK and EU will go after this new tariff taking effect now?

Will the relative cheaper E-bikes extinct due to the high tariff? And the E-bikes makers start to focus on more high-end models with a comparatively high margin?

As an E-bike maker or seller, what's your suggestion to tackle with this "Disaster"? And do you see any opportunities out of this?

 

[Woosh]

do you see any opportunities out of this?

not in the next 6 months but possible upturn in 2019.

 

[Wisper Bikes]

We will make the next 1000 City and Trekking bikes here, (both of last two containers of parts cleared customs yesterday!), then our Taiwan facility will be set up and ready to go for the Autumn. We will however build out high end bikes here from the Autumn onwards but that was always going to be the case.

All the EBMA have managed to do is move production around a bit Asia or into Chinese and Taiwanese owned factories in Europe. Well done chaps!

 

[mike killay]

Biting my tongue re the EU.
Hopefully we will soon be out and able to lobby our own politicians.
Why should we support European firms whose behaviour in all of this seems to me at least to be questionable.
It cannot possibly be of any benefit to me as an EU citizen to be forced to buy expensive German etc. ebikes.

 

[flecc]

Why should we support European firms whose behaviour in all of this seems to me at least to be questionable.
It cannot possibly be of any benefit to me as an EU citizen to be forced to buy expensive German etc. ebikes.

But there's another way of looking at this. If within the EU with this protectionism, we could design and manufacture e-bikes to sell into the whole European market competitively.

Of course that's always been possible inside the EU as the Germans, Dutch, French, Spanish, Italians and Hungarians have demonstrated. We in the UK have just lacked the will.
.

 

[Woosh]

But there's another way of looking at this. If within the EU with this protectionism, we could design and manufacture e-bikes to sell into the whole European market competitively.

we are not lean enough to compete on 4% manufacturing margin.
That's what EU manufacturers work at.

 

[Kudoscycles]

Normal bikes have for years come into Italy via Tunisia from China,it’s not smuggling Tunisia is a preferred country by the EU.
I suspect that electric bikes can come the same way,but the volumes will be big,too big for most of the small U.K. ebike importers.
We may be buying our bikes from Italy.
KudosDave

 

[Woosh]

and pop goes the OEM market differentiation.

 

[anotherkiwi]

There are many philosophical questions to be answered including how does one guarantee mobility to people in the EU on low incomes? Will EU manufacturers now be introducing low price, entry level models so that people who flip hamburgers can get to work when there is no public transport?

 

[Woosh]

There are many philosophical questions to be answered including how does one guarantee mobility to people in the EU on low incomes? Will EU manufacturers now be introducing low price, entry level models so that people who flip hamburgers can get to work when there is no public transport?

there are always low cost kits.

 

[anotherkiwi]

there are always low cost kits.

I still have my spreadsheet - maybe helping people fit a kit is back on my future jobs list? What discount do you give those who order 10 kits at a time?

 

[JuicyBike]

It's a mess - that's for sure.

But the writing has been on the wall since last autumn. The EU takes any excuse to protect its own industries and in some respects that's not a bad principal to hold.
But IMO they are wielding a sledgehammer, aimed very poorly, with only some good intent - the re-shoring of industry will be an eventual benefit.

In the meantime I fear the momentum for e-bikes in this country could be massively set-back. Whereas in mainland Europe the e-bike market is much better, possibly fully established and the benefits of e-bikes are widely appreciated and understood by riders, in the UK they are still becoming mainstream.

Cooperation between importers is one answer and companies could have been planning for the worst case by exploring joint ventures and moving their supply, considering manufacturing in the EU, where the market is strong, or even the UK, where the market has shown great potential. This is the one positive goal the EBMA could be contrived to have held (though personally I don't believe one jot that was ever their intention).

The elephant in the room is the ever-desperate need for convenient, healthy and (arguably) environmentally friendly transport, for which this blatant economic protectionism by the big European manufacturers does nothing. I loath this "trumpism" and have every sympathy for those who are inevitably going to find their modest and honourable trade turned upside down. No small indie brand I know is making a mint and most are strongly motivated by the "currency" of appreciative riders.

Hats off to David for his good example and determined attitude BTW. He has and still puts in a shift on behalf of others and from time to time he needs to be told that.

Juicy have our plans and we have been working to cope with what I have believed would be the case since November, so we should be okay, whatever the final outcome in January. Like others we do expect some shortages, but during the low season. As for price rises, well there could be, but we are working on ways to avoid increased costs and actually are looking forward to many improvements by manufacturing with partners much closer to home.

 

[Woosh]

I still have my spreadsheet - maybe helping people fit a kit is back on my future jobs list? What discount do you give those who order 10 kits at a time?

10% on BBSes, 15%-20% on hub kits over time.

 

[JuicyBike]

But there's another way of looking at this. If within the EU with this protectionism, we could design and manufacture e-bikes to sell into the whole European market competitively.

Of course that's always been possible inside the EU as the Germans, Dutch, French, Spanish, Italians and Hungarians have demonstrated. We in the UK have just lacked the will.
.

I think it's more the case we've lacked the market - not for want of trying to develop that market mind.

 

[JuicyBike]

All the EBMA have managed to do is move production around a bit Asia or into Chinese and Taiwanese owned factories in Europe. Well done chaps!

I'd question the wisdom of staying so far from home. Should they eventually win their case against China, EBMA confidence may grow and they may well focus elsewhere in the far east. I do believe re-shoring is a sensible longer term strategy.

 

[Kudoscycles]

I'd question the wisdom of staying so far from home. Should they eventually win their case against China, EBMA confidence may grow and they may well focus elsewhere in the far east. I do believe re-shoring is a sensible longer term strategy.

Juicy....I admire any efforts to make these bikes closer to home but the big problem is getting the parts from China to assemble here....as I have reported elsewhere the Chinese government anti pollution campaign is causing massive delays....you know I buy from over 100 vendors in China,all products are delayed by an extra 2 months,order to delivery is taking 6-8 months.
That would cause massive production problems to home assembly.
It is ironic that it will also cause delivery problems to the EU assemblers who started the anti dumping case.
KudosDave

 

[Wisper Bikes]

I'd question the wisdom of staying so far from home. Should they eventually win their case against China, EBMA confidence may grow and they may well focus elsewhere in the far east. I do believe re-shoring is a sensible longer term strategy.

Hi Bob, IMO there’s no chance of the EBMA going for Taiwan, don’t forget these guys are only interested in their own businesses and they buy a lot of bikes from Taiwan.

All the best, David

 

[flecc]

we are not lean enough to compete on 4% manufacturing margin.
That's what EU manufacturers work at.

Agreed, meaning we have to become lean enough. Another way of saying we have to learn to live within our means to lower standards.
.

 

[flecc]

I think it's more the case we've lacked the market - not for want of trying to develop that market mind.

The whole of Europe was our market. We just had to be good enough to sell into it, like the other countries I quoted.
.

 

[flecc]

There are many philosophical questions to be answered including how does one guarantee mobility to people in the EU on low incomes? Will EU manufacturers now be introducing low price, entry level models so that people who flip hamburgers can get to work when there is no public transport?

That's what mopeds are for, available cheaply enough for that job as they've long been.
.