Alex's bike is certainly worth that £1725, but he's up against the twin evils.
First, there's many very capable brand new e-bikes at that or less, second, people who can afford £1725 are likely to be able to easily afford the new price for one.
Perhaps for some flush retirees - but I couldn't easily afford £2,700 (it crippled me to buy the bike and only bought it having given up my car), whereas I could have afforded £1,725 comfortably when I bought it. It's also an 11sp - and there are some who understand what that means in terms of unlocking performance should they wish that.
Depends on the person and what they want- I wouldn't buy an 8sp bike for example but the only way to get an 11sp was to pay £800 more or change the hub. Which would have cost hundreds and still wouldn't have had an LCD. If I could have got an 11sp 2nd hand for the cost of an 8sp I'd have bought that instead.
The bikes I have seen at the £1700-odd price point have all fallen foul of the same problem - undergeared or components just not up to scratch for that kind of outlay (imho !)
The general depreciation factor (r = 0.3 per annum) applies to the tangible element of the bike.
Premium products carry an intangible prestige element subject to the same depreciation but at different rate. The value of this element is naturally the difference between an average bike and the branded bike.
The commodity ebike costs about £1000. The B element can be in your favour if your bike initially costs less than a commodity bike (eg you bought a special offer Kudos Tourer at £600 - after a year, your bike would be worth (V) £420 + (B) £40 = £460 using this formula).
This B element reflects the popularity of the cheaper bikes.
Alex can surely trade in his bike for £1725 against a new purchase.
The formula makes not much difference to the value - thing with the commodity bike price is that I haven't seen any with comparable component specs. Magura brakes and Alfine-11 hubs just don't tend to get put on Chinese bikes for example and they certainly don't have refined crank drive systems. So it's hard to get a realistic 'B'.
Hadn't thought about the trade-in thing. May not need another eBike - the Kalkhoff is only used up-country (where I go increasingly infrequently) and if I stay down in Devon most of the time going forward as planned, I already have my Trek which is custom-built for the specific conditions it'd ridden here. If I do replace it, then depending on appraisal of how sale of this one goes, may be better off getting a 2nd hand lightly used replacement of an over-supplied brand for well under a grand as an occasional hack. Or more likely an unpowered 2nd hand bike to run occasional 4-mile round trip errands to town if needed. Which isn't going to come in at more than £500 in all likelihood, even for a decent one.
Depreciation tables may work in well established markets on goods that have a consistent lifecycle. Not sure e-bikes fit the bill. When I was looking for a bike I was looking for depreciation more in line with cars which can lose 40-60% in the first 3yrs. Bear in mind there is no back up and if the battery has not been cared for you could be in for a shock.
Perhaps as dealers grow and repair and maintenance become widely available second hand values will increase.
I wish I had known about this site would probably have bought D8ve's bike in the knowledge it was used and maintained by an enthusiast. Perhaps I should flog mine on ebay and try a high end bike.
I guess buying off eBay, you just don't have any knowledge of how things have been maintained ! I didn't have problems getting mechanical servicing at a regular bike shop.. with crank drive bikes it shouldn't be an issue as the non-"e" bits and wheels can all be accessed without touching the electronics or having to disconnect hubs etc.
Most new eBike 'issues' show themselves in the 1st 6 months of ownership whilst bikes are run in etc. One thing which puts me off buying new again is that you have all that initial time/work/expense getting to grips with it, conditioning battery, running it in (initial service, initial oil changes, any de-bugging), all of which are sorted on a bike that's been looked after by the time it changes hands ! You've often only really had the thing run in and running perfectly for a few weeks by the time you swap it out
. It's only an evolution of circumstances and needs which tells me to put head before heart with the bike... tend to keep a new car for 10 years or more (well I did before all the 'computer says dunno' stuff took over anyway !).
There seem to be regular issues with bottle batteries, Chinese ones etc. but the batteries out of the factory Kalkhoff/BionX ones etc. come are very good quality and casing is robust and water-resistant. Panasonic ones too. You'd be very unlucky to get a dud inside 2 years and outside of that you'd be in the same position as if you'd bought a new bike at considerably more cost. They're guaranteed for 2 years anyway. 50cycles have a gadget which can verify battery cycles too off the BMS - so there's a proper audit trail on use unlike some cheaper generic batteries.
I think the 'fashion' point affecting 2nd hand values is a good one. The "e" is only a component of an "eBike" but 1st and foremost the longevity of a bike is in its build quality and style. I actually thought long and hard about whether to buy a Pro Connect last year but decided against it, partly because I know the Agattu is a model which is good for the long haul and had years of proven continued demand. So although premium version it's a popular bike in the "you can't go too far wrong with a ..." category ! Systems installed on the model have changed over the years but it's as up-to-date as a new bike off the factory line bought today. Plus it's a Kalkhoff
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I think the problem today is that there's such a bewildering number of new bikes that people get completely overwhelmed trying to work out what they want or what's good value and is going to last as against what isn't. The sheer number of KTM models for example leaves me not really knowing where to start... or where any choice might really end. I bought a premium bike 1st time round and if I bought a new retail bike again I'd do the same (but would only do so if I intended to keep it for at least 3-4 years as it would be a secondary mode of transport not a primary one !). But basically, you know when you're riding a bike with high end components - it's not a snob thing (for me anyway !) - and for that I don't think I could get hold of a recent premium eBike for a song and a dance unless I was VERY lucky indeed and someone is in a forced sale position. You can't with road or even mountain bikes so there's no reason for the eBike market to be any different.
