Harmonie

[Blew it]

Upwind Precipitation Detection

Just the other day, I was feeling a bit stir crazy, and determined to get out for a ride. I had a look on Metcheck for a local weather prediction. It didn't look too bad, and the sun was shining so I wheeled the bike out ready to go. However, I spotted a whopping big black cloud looming on the horizon...and it was approaching fast. Returning to the Metcheck site, I noticed a facility I hadn't seen before, "Upwind Precipitation Detection". It clearly showed the rapidly approaching cloud, and within minutes the heavens opened and down it came.

I'm guessing the radar is at RAF/USAF Fairford. Although the weather station at the now-closed RAF Lyneham is still reporting, I think the weather radar is switched off.

Anyhoo, noticing a clear spell after the rain stopped, but with more approaching rain already showing on the edge of the radar scan, I headed off for a ride. Strange as it may seem, I decided to head straight towards the approaching cloud bank. I felt the first few spots on my face just as I reached the top of R45 where I hung a left and quickly headed South down through Shaw Forest. Luckily, I rode out beyond the Southern edge of the cloud bank and got my ten miles in before returning home...I had just finished washing down when the rain set in really heavy.

I'm thinking, as we are likely to experience increased precipitation for a few years until the Atlantic cools down, "Upwind Precipitation Detection" is going to be a useful tool in predicting a 'slot' for a reasonably dry run.



Radar picture for my area today (rain all day)

 

[flecc]

That's handy, gives far more detail than the Met Office's usual site, and the up to the minute too. Thanks Blew it.

 

[Cyclezee]

Nice one Blew it,

I like the long range forecast for my area, July is going to be 22 degrees every day and no rain the entire month

 

[john h]

thanks for the heads up blew it ,i live up by perth way, 6 month forcast will help to plan weakends out on bike .

 

[Blew it]

Nice one Blew it,

I like the long range forecast for my area, July is going to be 22 degrees every day and no rain the entire month

Ah yes, the "singularities". This can be found under UK---The year ahead. But please note, the probability for that weather is only 50%....it could go either way

 

[Blew it]

Further to the above, the year ahead predictions and probabilities are based on historic records. Unfortunately, during the last two or three summers, the Azores "high" has failed to expand in the normal way. It is thought this may be the reason for the Jet-stream remaining in it's southerly position instead of being nudged up to its usual summer position over the Outer Hebrides.

Should this behavior continue, then it stands to reason the "Year ahead" predictions will be unreliable. And this is the reasoning behind my thoughts about short-range Upwind Precipitation Predictions. As we all know, just because it's overcast doesn't necessarily mean it's going to rain. Apparently, the radar system sweeps a 12½ mile radius at a height of 50 feet parallel to the ground, and only shows when rain is actually falling.