Global warming,is it just the cycles of the earth

Global warming is being blamed on the burning of fossil fuels,but is it just part of the cycles of the earth.after all the ice age and its aftermath wasnt caused by man.

 

What causes ice-ages?

 

Fluctuations in the amount of insolation (incoming solar radiation) are the most likely cause of large-scale changes in Earth's climate during the Quaternary. In other words, variations in the intensity and timing of heat from the sun are the most likely cause of the glacial/interglacial cycles. This solar variable was neatly described by the Serbian scientist, Milutin Milankovitch, in 1938. There are three major components of the Earth's orbit about the sun that contribute to changes in our climate. First, the Earth's spin on its axis is wobbly, much like a spinning top that starts to wobble after it slows down. This wobble amounts to a variation of up to 23.5 degrees to either side of the axis. The amount of tilt in the Earth's rotation affects the amount of sunlight striking the different parts of the globe. The greater the tilt, the stronger the difference in seasons (i.e., more tilt equals sharper differences between summer and winter temperatures). The range of motion in the tilt (from left-of-center to right-of-center and back again) takes place over a period of 41,000 years. As a result of a wobble in the Earth's spin, the position of the Earth on its elliptical path changes, relative to the time of year. This phenomenon is called the precession of equinoxes. The cycle of equinox precession takes 23,000 years to complete. In the growth of continental ice sheets, summer temperatures are probably more important than winter.

 

How does the ice build up?

 

Throughout the Quaternary period, high latitude winters have been cold enough to allow snow to accumulate. It is when the summers are cold, (i.e., summers that occur when the sun is at its farthest point in Earth's orbit), that the snows of previous winters do not melt completely. When this process continues for centuries, ice sheets begin to form. Finally, the shape of Earth's orbit also changes. At one extreme, the orbit is more circular, so that each season receives about the same amount of insolation. At the other extreme, the orbital ellipse is stretched longer, exaggerating the differences between seasons. The eccentricity of Earth's orbit also proceeds through a long cycle, which takes 100,000 years. Major glacial events in the Quaternary have coincided when the phases of axial tilt, precession of equinoxes and eccentricity of orbit are all lined up to give the northern hemisphere the least amount of summer insolation.

 

What makes the ice melt when the glaciation is over?

 

Major interglacial periods have occurred when the three factors line up to give the northern hemisphere the greatest amount of summer insolation. The last major convergence of factors giving us maximum summer warmth occurred 11,000 years ago, at the transition between the last glaciation and the current interglacial, the Holocene.

 

What do we all think?

KudosDave

What do we all think?

I think there is a short term effect of global warming due to burning fossil fuels and agricultural land use but the degree of global warming is a little exaggerated by climate scientists. I think increase of 1.5-2 degrees C is likely in the next 100 years. We'd have stopped behaving like we do today well before the end of this century.

Brian Cox made an interesting program on the future of energy in 2007. It was repeated on BBC4 a couple of weeks ago.

What do we all think?

 

I believe most of this effect is cyclic with us increasing it somewhat.

 

The effects will be quite serious though, rising sea levels mean we will lose quite a lot of inhabitable and arable lands that the world can ill afford to lose and some small populations on low lying lands and islands will be fragmented by enforced moves.

 

Another effect that could be the most serious of all but is not even on the radar is what happens to weather patterns. The loss of vast iced areas at the poles and at higher altitudes could completely change local weathers, for example the fragile monsoon that India and parts of Australia are completely dependent on could vanish, leaving all India as a new desert and the Australian Northern Territories jungle becoming an extension of the central desert.

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http://www.freakingnews.com/pictures/43500/Giraffe-Ostrich-Head-in-Sand--43622.jpg

I don't know how accurate it is but I find this amusing / interesting.

https://xkcd.com/1732/

I think we could all do with around 5KW per person as an average energy requirement and with advances in renewable energy, it is a solvable problem. The main problems are: how to limit world population, reverse pollution and limit land and sea use for growing food to maintain reasonable bio-diversity.

I don't know how accurate it is but I find this amusing / interesting.

https://xkcd.com/1732/

 

It is accurate. We should be heading towards an ice age.

Back in the 1980s, astronomer Fred Hoyle was warning that the next ice age is approaching and that we should start taking active steps to keep the planet warm!

Bit of a bummer if in 100 years time, clear signs of the next ice age appear.

They will have to start using diesel engines and burning old tyres as dirtily as possible.

It is accurate. We should be heading towards an ice age.

Natural progression im afraid

We have sped it up a little but its still happening.

Over population is the number one issue that humanity faces. The consequences, within the next 100 years, will be severe beyond imagination. People will never accept the warnings, governments will never take action and so armageddon is inevitable. Nothing can be done to halt the runaway train to total human destruction. Therefore, we may as well continue to enjoy a power hungry & sophisticated lifestyle. Merry Christmas.

while I feel fairly certain that the way we are treating the planet is not doing it any favours I am a little sceptical of the doom laden warnings of Armageddon. A line I saw the other day said that the man with the sandwich board proclaiming the end of the world has been replaced by BBC breakfast??. Which sums it up, there is a lot more information being force fed to people now and ''climate change'' has become a nice little earner for some. I know that view will be seen as heresy by some but I think we are being brainwashed. I seem to remember as a kid in the fifties the summer school holidays full of endless sunshine and some pretty severe winters. Maybe that memory is wrong probably just remembering the good bits. It used to be called global warming and when there was some dispute about any perceived rise it became climate change. Suppose that made it easier to sell

I seem to remember as a kid in the fifties the summer school holidays full of endless sunshine and some pretty severe winters.

 

Your memory is good, Summers were more consistently Summers, broken by the odd thunderstorms which quickly passed. Now Summers, indeed all seasons, are far less reliable, year by year varying greatly.

 

And the harsher Winters also happened, even the south having snow most Winters and spectacularly heavy falls in 1947 and 1962. Now snow in the south here is a rarity, the last time a shovel was used to shift any where I am was the 2011 Winter and only two of the preceding five winters had any snow, none serious.

 

But I also think we are only making a contribution to the climate and weather shifts, the global system overpowering our puny efforts.

 

Sad isn't it, we're so useless we can't even mess up well.

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my suspicion is the 37%-40% of landmass used for agriculture.

If you replace so much forests with rice or beans, you change the weather.

There is no doubt that there are many eco-fakes surfing the ever so trendy destruction of the planet thing. The issue which interests me is the population doubling rate, which is about 70 years in duration. It’s one thing in nature which you can rely on and has been a constant throughout time. If it continues, and I believe it will because no one has the balls to tackle it, the population of the planet will reach 14 billion in 70 years time in 2084 (we are doing well and are bang on target). It’s thought that the earth could just about sustain 9 billion, so unless something change we won’t need to worry about the doubling cycle after 2084. The collapse of humanity and society should be fairly rapid, so not too much suffering.

If it continues, and I believe it will because no one has the balls to tackle it, the population of the planet will reach 14 billion in 70 years time in 2084 (we are doing well and are bang on target). It’s thought that the earth could just about sustain 9 billion,

 

There's clear evidence that the growth is slowing and some believe it will flatten out at about 9 billions.

 

Improved living standards are proven to reduce human birthrates, often to below enough to sustain in the advanced societies. As better standards of living spread we'll see that decline increasingly, the only question being at what point the growth flattens to stability.

 

And we shouldn't discount pandemics, huge swathes of humanity have been wiped out by these and we are currently in an antibiotic resistance crisis which could really tip the balance in the fight against disease.

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And we shouldn't discount pandemics, huge swathes of humanity have been wiped out by these and we are currently in an antibiotic resistance crisis which could really tip the balance in the fight against disease.

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that's brightened my morning

There's clear evidence that the growth is slowing and some believe it will flatten out at about 9 billions.

 

Improved living standards are proven to reduce human birthrates, often to below enough to sustain in the advanced societies. As better standards of living spread we'll see that decline increasingly, the only question being at what point the growth flattens to stability.

 

And we shouldn't discount pandemics, huge swathes of humanity have been wiped out by these and we are currently in an antibiotic resistance crisis which could really tip the balance in the fight against disease.

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Good point regarding pandemics. Apparently, the years following the eradication of The Black Death were stable and food plentiful.

that's brightened my morning

 

It's being so cheerful that keeps me going.

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Your memory is good, Summers were more consistently Summers, broken by the odd thunderstorms which quickly passed. Now Summers, indeed all seasons, are far less reliable, year by year varying greatly.

 

And the harsher Winters also happened, even the south having snow most Winters and spectacularly heavy falls in 1947 and 1962. Now snow in the south here is a rarity, the last time a shovel was used to shift any where I am was the 2011 Winter and only two of the preceding five winters had any snow, none serious.

 

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I have said for years that we don't have seasons any more we just have days .

Well I, m looking forward to Fraisthorpe feeling like Goa.. Shouldn't be long now and we can blame Brexit if it floods, has sharks or crocodiles.. Win win.. But let it be windy like canaries tho...

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Trouble is that the people who believe in Genesis and Adam and Eve also believe God created everything 6 million years ago and that dinosaurs have been faked by scientists.

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Meteo France numbers:

 

2018 hottest year on record

Average temperature 14°C (think about that for a moment...)

1.4 °C higher than previous highest average temperature

Meteo France numbers:

 

2018 hottest year on record

Average temperature 14°C (think about that for a moment...)

1.4 °C higher than previous highest average temperature

 

Far too much is being made of it. 2018 also included the "Beast from the East" with extreme winter conditions.

 

And the Summer of 1976 was much hotter, although shorter in duration at a little over two months, and the highest UK temperature on record was 15 years ago in 2003.

 

Let's see what 2019 brings before panicking about this one year blip.

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For me, the problem is that Global warming has become a religion to many people.

They are not scientists and do not have any idea of what may or may not be happening.

They Believe.

They hold the faith and decry unbelievers as heretics.

They tell us that the debate is over. Yet they have no idea at all if it is or not, they simply follow the teachings of their High Priests.

The same people tell me that President Trump is a

1 Moron,

2 stupid, cannot even point out China or Russia on a map.

3 Racist,

4 Xenophobe,

5 Misogynist.

6 Fascist

These are British People caught up in a wave of American left wing hysteria. They have no way of verifying their statements...they believe.