E-bikes will not exist in 10 years time

[Alex728]

an interesting debate and I understand the point about the batteries, but I think one big factor (from the POV of a young'un) is rules and regulations and changing attitudes...

the impression I get from both the anecdotes of the older generation on here and the 1930s technical / engineering books I collect from charity shops is that other that paying a few shillings for tax/license plate you simply just donned your flat cap and rode off on your motorbike or scooter!

No helmet, no CBT etc... of course I expect a sense of self preservation prevented people being too stupid (or finished them off) but it can't have been that bad as there seem to be plenty of the old chaps still around and in one piece...

today its much harder for a new driver/rider to get and to keep a license than it ever was, and also harder for more rebellious/foolhardy people to try and "play the system" by driving or riding illegally (a much more common practice in the 1990s before cops upgraded their patchy and insecure communications systems and perfected things like ANPR).

There is also a growing backlash against car culture in some regions due to young drivers increasingly losing their lives in serious accidents - a young lady I work with from a good middle class family who has had a far less rebellious youth than mine has been to the funerals of no less than six of her young friends - all killed in road traffic collissions, either as driver or passenger in a motorcar.

Also flecc mentions peoples transport patterns being changed by war - as bleak an outlook this is, I feel this will happen again or is already becoming the case. We are already at war. Whilst I hope we will never see the kind of wartime conditions of many decades ago such as air raids, I can certainly forsee austerity/rationing appearing again in my lifetime and a push to not use as much fossil fuels and travel shorter distances

With that in mind, and a rising awareness in environmentalism amongst even small children I think the concept of e-bikes definitely has a future, even if some manufacturers fall by the wayside due to harsh market conditions.

I do fear that technical development may stagnate or even stall (especially if international relations deteriorate - the Chinese/Japanese might decide to keep scarce resources for themselves!) - but niche markets such as work bikes for posties, cops, delivery persons may increase, and even the lead acid clunkers will survive or remain popular or even increase in popularity (perhaps "early 21st century" ebikes with knackered lithium cells being ressurected!) - when times are hard things like looks and weight become secondary considerations to just getting around...

 

[flecc]

Yes, it's certainly harder to get a driving licence these days and there's more opportunities to lose it. However, policing was much tougher years ago, very large numbers of traffic police in cars making a nuisance of themselves to relieve their boredom. These days dedicated police traffic cars are a rarity outside of a few motorways and A roads.
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[Barnowl]

It's hard to say what transport will be like in 10 years time. My guess is that unless we're all driving snow mobiles, courtesy of the next ice age, the bicycle is still going to be around. If the bicycle is still around there's bound to be people that will want some, easy, relatively cheap assistance - AKA the Leccie bicycle. An aging population and the strong possibility of regular driving tests for aged drivers could see demand for e-bikes surge.
Commuting and traffic density in cities will probably be an even bigger issue in 10 years time as may ecological and cost considerations.
My personal view is there's plenty of mileage in the electric bicycle though it's never going the be popular like the the car, motor bike or scooter - electric or otherwise.

 

[Danny-K]

. . . My personal view is there's plenty of mileage in the electric bicycle though it's never going the be popular like the the car, motor bike or scooter - electric or otherwise.

I concur.

In fact, I hold the view that in 5 years time, battery technology performance will leave all what we love about today's batteries dead in the water and e-bike's for the enthusiast will simply be case of "must-have" and not a "should-I?" for indecisives still sitting-on-the-fence.

 

[flecc]

I concur.

In fact, I hold the view that in 5 years time, battery technology performance will leave all what we love about today's batteries dead in the water

. Dream on.

I've been seeing predictions like this about batteries since the 1950s, yet more than half a century on the only really good high discharge battery is the old lead acid one. Yes really, the oldest form of battery meaning two century old technology rules!

The proof? It's what the worlds vehicles use, by far the largest use of high current discharge batteries in the world by a huge margin. If there was anything better, the motor industry would use it. All the other types have serious disadvantages which limit the uses they can be put to.

Still not convinced? Look at our present "pinnacle", our li-ion batteries, the shortest lived rechargeable of them all. Some progress.
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[The Maestro]

Flecc, you might be right. I suppose it all depends on what the reasons current e-bike owners have for using them over a moped today. If its purely to be environmentally friendly then e-scooters will certainly take over. However, all the other reasons that I can think of for choosing an ebike over a Moped will still remain in the future:

Exercise and fitness
Ability to use cycle paths
None of the red tape and ongoing beaucracy associated with owning a motor vehicle
Much lower cost (i.e no insurance - ok so an e-scooter would save some money over a standard scooter in lower tax and fuel prices but would still be a lot more than an ebike)
No toast rack
Easy to look after, maintain and customise oneself
Owner has no motor vehicle license (should possibly be higher up list)
Ability to ignore traffic signals with impunity

Also, this isn't the same situation as with the 2 stroke thingies of the past because they were all subject to motor vehicle related laws.

 

[moon]

I think most people on this forum could ride a scooter if they wanted to, some of us have previously ridden and owned them.
However the downsides of scootering are really important.
1. Lack of exercise (Obesity is a big issue. No pun intended)
2. Storage, most scooters have to be left outside, which makes them very attractive to thieves and vandals.
3.Scooters are big and heavy, you cant get them on a train or drag them onto the pavement when you fancy getting away from traffic (restrictions)

I am sure there are more issues...

 

[flecc]

Exercise and fitness
Ability to use cycle paths
None of the red tape and ongoing beaucracy associated with owning a motor vehicle
Much lower cost (i.e no insurance - ok so an e-scooter would save some money over a standard scooter in lower tax and fuel prices but would still be a lot more than an ebike)
No toast rack
Easy to look after, maintain and customise oneself
Owner has no motor vehicle license (should possibly be higher up list)
Ability to ignore traffic signals with impunity

Mainly true, but the extra bureaucracy didn't put people off of having scooters in the late 1950s and 1960s. They put up with it for what they saw as a better vehicle, comfort, weather protection, no effort etc.

Of course it may be that neither the e-bike or scooter/moped will persist, we could just continue to go the American way and become a near total car using nation, fossil fuel at first until electric takes over.
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[flecc]

However the downsides of scootering are really important.
1. Lack of exercise (Obesity is a big issue. No pun intended)
2. Storage, most scooters have to be left outside, which makes them very attractive to thieves and vandals.
3.Scooters are big and heavy, you cant get them on a train or drag them onto the pavement when you fancy getting away from traffic (restrictions)

These are true, but not always the impediment they might seem.

1) People often treat exercise for fitness as an additional activity via gym membership etc

3) Scooters don't have to be dragged onto the train since they are fast enough for longer journeys, in that case making them much cheaper than the hybrid e-bike/train journey. Another reason for many to choose them instead of an e-bike.
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[moon]

Ok but what about my battery warmer thread
http://www.pedelecs.co.uk/forum/electric-bicycles/3454-hotsnapz-battery-warmers.html

 

[Barnowl]

Maestro/Moon: I think that pretty much sums up why we have E-Bikes. I can't see why that should change. 10 years isn't a long time and I can't see that things now are really that much different to 1999.
Aren't Lifepo4 batteries an answer to most of our E-biking problems ie cost, longivity and distance (given a 15.5MPH limit & most of us only using bikes for local (less than 20 mile runs)? Flecc enlighten me...

 

[flecc]

Just seen and answered.
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[moon]

I guess we all love to cycle so they will persist, cycling gets more popular by the day and they've been around for ages.
The fun factor is very important!

 

[flecc]

Aren't Lifepo4 batteries an answer to most of our E-biking problems ie cost, longivity and distance (given a 15.5MPH limit & most of us only using bikes for local (less than 20 mile runs)? Flecc enlighten me...

They should be, and I hope they are. However, my hope is tempered by over half a century of disappointment with batteries.

Lithium iron phosphate is predicted to have much longer life and hoped to be the life of vehicles in some cases, but that remains to be proved. We were told Nickel Metal Hydride (NiMh) would last for at least 1000 charges originally, but the first generation ones lasted barely 100 charges at best. Once revised by using rare earths instead of metals, though the name didn't change, we were told 500 to 800 charges. In fact it's ended up with 400 charges generally if well treated. This has been the history with all new battery introductions, first the hype, then the disappointment, and the recent Li-ion batteries illustrate that only too well.

Lithium iron phosphate does have some disadvantages anyway, they are larger and heavier than existing lithium types.

So we'll see, but no student of battery progress would ever bet on a new battery type performing as predicted.
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[Alex728]

I actually seriously considered getting a (petrol) scooter or motorbike before getting a ebike but decided against it - for the journeys I usually make it wasn't cost effective.

Over the years most of my mates who have had a petrol scooter or motorbike have either crashed it, had it stolen, or just been unable to afford maintenance costs. or they let their CBT expire, got caught by the cops and had their licenses endorsed. Those prepared to go through the hoops and do "proper" tests often decide just to get a motor car unless they are really into motorbikes..

But as for the future, especially with the recession deepening I don't think there will be that much technical progress in 10 years with regard to batteries or anything else apart from slight improvements - enough to improve ebikes maybe but not enough to make electric scooters more (initially) affordable than petrol ones.

I also think the distances people regularly travel may start to reduce - people will end up again working and socialising closer to their homes...

Also there might be some very powerful sociopolitical pressures in 10 years time...more powerful than progress in science/engineering..

What about all the kids currently 6 to 10 years old? Many of them are turning into "junior swampys" with their views on the environment! I'm not talking about hippies kids but kids growing up on urban council estates too. In a decades time these children will want their own transport..

We will also have a generation returning from active service in the Middle East, either having fought or still fighting in a bitter war that most people realise is as much about access to oil supplies as religious or culture clashes or "defending "freedom" - the emotional fallout from this may well finally make people think about the consequences of our fossil fuel addicted culture (its already starting to make a impact in East Anglia with a lot of families having sons/daughters in HM Forces..)

unless a miracle happens and something like Chinese scooters capable of 25-30 mph become really affordable and are permitted on the roads with less red tape, I think both conventional bikes and ebikes will thrive, with (as others suggested) a lot of crossovers between the technologies... TBH even with the scooters I think ebikes will still be made, as happens today...

 

[Barnowl]

Flecc: Many thanks I hadn't realised it was down to about 400 charges. Let's hope it improves. Battery cost/life seems to be the biggest downer for most of us. I believe BYD, the chinese car company, were using Lifepo4 or similar.

Alex: Thanks for resurrecting this thread. I found it most interesting.

 

[Barnowl]

Ooops: Sorry just realised you meant NIMH is 400 charges - not Lifepo4

 

[flecc]

I think you are right about the switching to cars for those who tried scooters first Alex, but I don't hold out any hope of kids with e-bikes.

Todays kids cycle less than any former generation, child cycling having been continuously in decline since the 1970s, despite some being bought bikes which they briefly try before going back to their playstations etc. Even that brief usage is almost entirely before they reach 14, and that's the earliest age that they can have a e-bike. A very high proportion of kids over the last twenty years haven't even been allowed to have bikes at any stage due to parental fear of traffic etc

As others have observed, e-bikers are drawn from the ranks of cyclists and ex cyclists, and todays kids aren't either. Some go straight to mopeds and then cars, some go straight to cars, and I don't see the slightest sign of anything that will change that.

The only real prospect for future e-bikes rests with cyclists and ex cyclists as it does now, and that will always be a very small proportion of the British public in the foreseeable future. In the improved battery scenario I mentioned, many of those will be lost to e-mopeds, reducing e-biking further. One only has to see the admiration and desire for the Vectrix electric scooter expressed by many members in this forum to see the truth of that, and even our magazine for e-biking interests, A to B, features the Vectrix at length in their latest issue.
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[flecc]

Ooops: Sorry just realised you meant NIMH is 400 charges - not Lifepo4

Yes, lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) is hoped to be ok for 2000 or more charges, but as ever with new technologies there's much disagreement, some experts say 1000, some say 2000 and some say 5000, so we can't be too confident yet.

One unnerving reservation is that e-bike manufacturers have been trying them out for over two years now and still find them too unreliable to introduce.
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[Alex728]

A very high proportion of kids over the last twenty years haven't even been allowed to have bikes at any stage due to parental fear of traffic etc

true - despite my parents letting me have a bike from age 6-10 this happened to me from approx age 13 until the end of high school years, thanks to the paranoia induced in my parents by the do-gooder health and safety types which got way too much of a platform in the 1980s.

I did take my driving test some years back but didn't pass (although it was a close one), thankfully I didn't indulge in a common bad practice of the 1990s which was to drive illegally on a provisional license - it was that common amongst my peers I will confess it was more due to fear of being caught and bringing shame on my family than feeling it was "wrong" ...

That said I found the whole concept of car culture and driving emotionally stressful - driving brought out an agressive side of me which otherwise very rarely shows itself, and this has only been tamed recently as I entered my 30s (hence me considering the motorbike).

I decided myself to start cycling in my late 20s - I wouldn't class myself as a big eco warrior [although some hippy types from the rave scene did initially encourage me] - I just found I enjoyed it more than any other form of transport - a lot of my friends in Reading followed suit as well (whether or not they had driving licenses). This was around the time of the last recession in 2001/02 and people carried on after the economic boom times briefly came back so I wouldn't underestimate the amount of people turning to cycling later in life.....

As others have observed, e-bikers are drawn from the ranks of cyclists and ex cyclists, and todays kids aren't either. Some go straight to mopeds and then cars, some go straight to cars, and I don't see the slightest sign of anything that will change that.

in some regions at least (admittedly away from metropolitan areas) there is now a increasing backlash against the way children have been denied the chance to play outside due and to take part in healthy outdoor activity, due to health and safety paranoia - cycling and other outdoor activity is being encouraged once more.

For instance in the suburb of Kesgrave just outside Ipswich the high school kids are strongly encouraged to ride to school just like they were before the 1980s. All this is very new though, in the last few years... (you can't smoke a crafty cig in the bike sheds though, there is CCTV )