E-bikes will not exist in 10 years time

[Sevenhills]

The zero tax is aimed to encourage take up of low emissions vehicles. However, in the future, when most vehicles will be low emission, the tax shortfall will have to be made up. The most likely option is road pricing which governments would very much like to introduce but know is politically difficult.

Mass personal trnsport will always be taxed, and cycles should always be regulation free. As long as e-bikes are slow, they will be classed as cycles.
And it will be a very long time before cars are any where near zero emmissions! I cannot afford a car, maybe I can afford a petrol scooter. I have thought it, but with my e-bike all local journies are almost free, and busses used for longer journies.

S

 

[mishabgt]

Having had my car (2.5litre V6 Rover 75) converted to LPG about 3 years ago to reduce travelling costs to work (8.5 miles urban each way) I have recently bought a Powacycles Salisbury LPX to use a couple of days a week when I don't have have to drop my toddler off at nursery on the way to work.
LPG was 34.5p per litre at that time and this has doubled in that time to a current 72.9ppl costing me about £35-40 per week in fuel!
Having used the bike for just over a week now I am currently writing this and wishing I could ride to work instead of driving thus morning (which isnt an option as it's one of my son's nursery days).

Having tried riding my mountain bike to work in the past (and getting to work all sweaty with nonshower facilities - not ideal!) I never thought I would be enjoying cycling to work so much. I find that I get to work quicker on my ebike than in the car (thanks to cycle paths and road congestion) and actually have time to relax on the journeys so I arrive home less stressed.

To think that bikes won't be around in 10 years is like telling Mr Ford that his 'motor vehicle' idea would die out as new ideas came along. The fact that LiPo batteries can usually be removed from the bike to charge indoors (and at work for the return journey) without the need for specialist charging stations can only increase their popularity.

My work mates are currently in the mickey-taking stage (which I expected) but with an expected saving of at least £40per month on my commute and an increase in my fitness to boot, I'm not complaining.
Sure scooters will catch on more once the range increases. But to the level that bikes disappear? I think not. Everyone still uses 'standard' bikes as they have for hundreds of years even though other transports have come (and gone - Sinclair C5 for one). It's merely an evolution which is natural. As fuel costs increase so the electric tech will develop resulting in more efficient machines for cheaper prices which can only be a good thing

 

[tillson]

My work mates are currently in the mickey-taking stage (which I expected) but with an expected saving of at least £40per month on my commute and an increase in my fitness to boot, I'm not complaining.

I had this happen and still do but to a lesser extent these days. The way in which people talk with, an air of confidence and self assured smugness on a subject for which they have absolutely no knowledge always raises a smile with me. Occasionally, it can be frustrating because some of these "jokers" are even lacking the basic mechanical aptitude to facilitate a discussion and I do like to put forward an alternative view point if possible.

Just pocket the £40.00 a month and enjoy watching them inhabit their own little world of ignorance. It's their loss, not yours.

 

[flecc]

To think that bikes won't be around in 10 years is like telling Mr Ford that his 'motor vehicle' idea would die out as new ideas came along.

As fuel costs increase so the electric tech will develop resulting in more efficient machines for cheaper prices which can only be a good thing

Not at all the same thing as my "tongue in cheek" proposition though. Ford's cars had no close alternative, e-bikes do have the alternatives of e-mopeds, ic mopeds etc.

As for electric tech, we already have superbly efficient electric machines which will have only snails pace improvement since they are almost at a pinnacle, electric trains and trams for example. It's not the machines that are the problem, it's the batteries needed for independent power. And with batteries we are up against some fundamental physical laws which will always limit them to well below fossil fuel capabilities.

 

[lemmy]

It seems to me that the e-bikes have little development left in them, largely because the bicycle itself it a proved and tested in design and implementation and we have batteries which will carry a bike and rider for 50 miles or so already.

The only development possible, therefore, is in the battery. But to what purpose?

More speed? Faster e-bikes would lose much of the advantage of a bicycle, in that you would need insurance, helmet, and VED, pay for parking and lose the right to use cycle paths, tow-paths by rivers. The legislation is most unlikely to change.

Longer range? That would be of most use to a commuter. However, take a place like Guildford, roughly 30 miles from central London. The journey takes less than 30 minutes by train. On an e-bike it would take at least 2hrs 30 minutes. Ridiculous.

So, basically, I feel the e-bike has a future but will remain a niche market. The market will grow simply because many people at present do not know the things even exist or regard them as 'uncool'. That is changing already and in ten years the e-bike will be one more form of transport, taken for granted like the push-bike or the car.

My conclusion? The e-bike is a mature technology already. Further development is not only technically difficult but unnecessary. It will exist in ten years time but be essentially the same as it is now.

 

[Scottyf]

I've started seeing more and more Ebikes about.

Infact one car driver stopped and asked how it works and was intrigued by the design / basics and how it works and how much it cost.

Also asked what range I can get and how much extra weight it was. He even said that he had heard of them but had never seen one in action and was very suprised how well it worked.


This is great. BUt your right its a Niche market. An electric moped will be better. But... The faff of the legislation and blue tape you have to go through is the extra pain.

So much so that just getting a moped with a 4stroke 125cc engine will do 100mpg and cheaper to run and more convient.

It will mostly like other stay as a niche market.
What I like though is that in relative forms the bike works very well with getting one person to a destination in urban area's faster / cheaper and batteries carry enough watts with low weight to make them useful.

Cars / mopeds you need huge power to get the propusion needed.

Still where the motors make a peak 1hp its the torque thats impressive with peak figures being about 8-9 Nm,

Which Internal combustion engines your lucky to get anywhere near that figure. Most cars only being 100hp and 200nm.

 

[lectureral]

have have to drop my toddler off at nursery on the way to work.

It may not be practical for you but I highly recommend a child trailer - I have hardly used my car at all for short journeys since I got one. 2 kids and a few bags of shopping carried no problem. Of course the roads are pretty quiet around here, to my advantage.

 

[flecc]

My conclusion? The e-bike is a mature technology already. Further development is not only technically difficult but unnecessary. It will exist in ten years time but be essentially the same as it is now.

Completely agree Lemmy. The only worthwhile development is in battery life, we need at least five years and preferable ten, to reduce both costs and environmental harm.

 

[electric_avenue]

An electric moped will be better. But... The faff of the legislation and blue tape you have to go through is the extra pain.

So much so that just getting a moped with a 4stroke 125cc engine will do 100mpg and cheaper to run and more convient.

Electric mopeds will always need licence, tax, insurance and that will put them out of consideration for many people. For my 19 year old, moped insurance came up at £800.
On a point of order though, 125cc is not a moped its a motorcycle and needs a motorcycle licence. So that's not really a direct comparison.

 

[flecc]

Electric mopeds will always need licence, tax, insurance and that will put them out of consideration for many people. For my 19 year old, moped insurance came up at £800.

But as I've pointed out previously, most e-bikers are in the older age groups and are pre-qualified to ride mopeds, and their insurance cost as mature users will be low. Nor is road tax an objection for e-mopeds, it's free.

 

[mike killay]

I went back to Flecc's original analysis where he showed roughly 10 years of 98cc autocycle, followed by 10 years of motorised bikes, followed by a glut of scooters for 10 years or so, finally giving way to the car.
From this, he predicted 10 years or so for e-bikes.
But I think that we should give fuller consideration to those old vehicles and the financial situation of that time.
The Autocycle (my uncle had one) was a throw back to pre First World war motor cycles. These old motorcycles did not have gear boxes and relied on pedal assitance to get up hills. Although cheaper than proper motor cycles, autocycles were still costly.
The arrival of the cycle motor meant that a person could bolt one onto their existing bike and have a form of motorised transport. They were comparatively cheap and sold in huge numbers.
The arrival of the Lambettas and Vespas coincided with an upturn in the economy. Motor cyclists did not like them, but they appealed to motorised bike and non riders because they offered some weather protection. Also, the full 50 cc moped with a gear box was available (google NSU quickly, some had 3 gears and dual seats)
Also, you could drive around on L plates indefinitely.
Nevertheless, we are an aspirational society, and for many, the ultimate appeal was a car. Not just for its transport benefits, but as a statement that you could afford to buy one. My father had a car, but used the bus to get to work as it was much cheaper. The car was for weekends only.
Now we have a very different situation. Anyone who wants one can get a car. Because they are so ubiquitous, very few see them as a statement of social standing.
The cost of running a car, particularly a second car is becoming a burden for many.
Congestion in cities makes many car journies difficult. Bikes can be quicker in many circumstances. Bike/Bus or Bike /Train can be the best of all.
The old motorised bikes were noisy, oily and vibrated quite a bit.
E-bikes are smooth and very pleasant to ride. The simplicity of riding kit for an e-bike (helmet and cape) because of its low speed are attractors. My guess is that outside of very hilly areas, the hub motor and small battery will survive well. Once you have ridden an e-bike, going back to an unpowered bike has little or no advantage. Many on this forum comment that their e-bike feels just like an unpowered bike, and since unpowered bikes appear firmly here to stay, I must disagree with Flecc's original prediction.

 

[bode]

Longer range? That would be of most use to a commuter. However, take a place like Guildford, roughly 30 miles from central London. The journey takes less than 30 minutes by train. On an e-bike it would take at least 2hrs 30 minutes. Ridiculous.

Commuting is not the only reason for wanting longer range. I am about to order a 20Ah battery because I would like to be able to go off for the day without having carefully to plan a route that will ensure that I don't run out of power half-way. I don't suppose that I would often use all of the 40-50 miles that I should have at my disposal, and I probably would not want to be in the saddle for that far anyway, but I should like to have the option.

So I think I am agreeing that the best current battery technology gives adequate range, whilst being slightly disappointed that that on the average e-bike does not.

 

[eclectic_bike]

Your logic seems persuasive. It is worth setting out the differences between autocycles and e-bikes:

E-bike advantages:
1. Light.
2. Run silently.
3. Deliver power seamlessly to aid pedalling force.
4. Power source is cheap and can be very green, depending on generation source.
5. Can provide some regeneration.
6. No insurance.

autocycle advantages:
1. Refuelling is easy and quick
2. Range is large (but better batteries on e-bikes could match this)
3. I can't think of any others.

As TomB points out, the bikes of the future could simply be what we recognise as bikes now, particularly if batteries become much more efficient and cheap. I think that in countries like China, Flecc's prediction will probably come true as they regard bikes purely pragmatically. In the West it is not so clear to me. It may well be that in the future bikes without some form of quiet, cheap electric assist may be the exception.

Predicting the future is very difficult. I remember enough old Tomorrow's World predictions that came to nothing to know that technology predictions should always be taken with a large pinch of salt.

 

[RoadieRoger]

My Classic Suzuki Motorcycles are nearly 30 years old , my German Folder cycle is 32 years old , so it must follow that the Batribike Quartz will be aiming for similar . The only weak link might be me ! Still I suppose I could mention them in my will ?

 

[Caph]

My work mates are currently in the mickey-taking stage

Same thing initially at my work. There are now two of us with Ebikes and double the number of push bikes.

Mickey-taking has stopped, economic pressures have stifled all laughter.

 

[Willin']

Well we are already a third of the way into this forecast and as far as I can see there has been further growth in the ebike market just going by threads and posts on this forum. It seems there are more manufacturers/suppliers/dealers with greater choice and availability for the prospective purchaser. If the present economic situation continues (and it doesn't seem that it won't) for much longer then I can see even more interest in ebikes and a growth in sales- even though it will remain a niche market compared to unpowered bike sales.

 

[johnc461165]

For me there is nothing nicer than going out on my ebike either on or off road, bikes in general have been going for so many years, ok they may not be e powered but they will still be there. flecc has raised a very good topic of conversation which I think is what the post was meant to do. They wont be wiped out if I can last until I am 76 because I will still be biking god & my knee willing.

 

[Scottyf]

On a point of order though, 125cc is not a moped its a motorcycle and needs a motorcycle licence. So that's not really a direct comparison.

I think by definition you can ride a 125cc engine scooter or motor bike but need a cbt. Where as if you've passed your car test before the year 2000 you can ride a 50cc scooter or motorbike with out Any extra tests.

Sorry to hear the cost of insurance being so high. It was one of themmain reasons when I was 16 I brought A scooter instead of saving for a car. I was tired of cycling to college. Hated the bus. Passes a cbt and jumped on a scooter. Peugeot speedfight mk1 50cc
Used it untill the bottom end gave up. Good times but the insurance then for
Me was only around the 300 mark 11 years ago

 

[flecc]

Now we have a very different situation. Anyone who wants one can get a car. Because they are so ubiquitous, very few see them as a statement of social standing.

I don't think this is quite true, in the sense that the opposite, not having a car, is seen as a social disadvantage. Certainly in high density city areas such as London where public transport can cover most needs, the lack of a car doesn't matter. In other areas for most people it's usually a huge social disadvantage and does reflect on standing.

My post was of course to provoke debate, and I think the consensus tends to point to a continuing life for e-bikes, but in the UK at least, a niche one. Even in places like the Netherlands where e-bikes are hugely popular currently, I see their popularity declining as the requirements of charging and other battery hassles sink in. In that predominantly flat country, I can see many of those utility cyclists reverting to the simple attractions of just hop on and pedal for their generally slow amble to the shops etc.

 

[miker71]

I won't pretend I read the entire thread but I find the motion of interest.

I think there'll always be a market for zero admin personal transport. That is, capital cost of the vehicle followed by no further direct payments (including low maintenance). The problem is, the economy thrives on taxes and service industry to churn money around (errr, yeah, forget the crushing global deficit for a moment as proof of how well that system ultimately hasn't worked) - so something that isn't taxed beyond initial purchase, low maintenance and street legal - the ebike.

I was in the market for an e-scooter but the whole registration, lessons, road-tax, MOT, just put me off. I already know how to ride a bicycle and now I have one with a throttle without any hassle (nor the speed, but that's a compromise - and make no mistake I still use my feet to pedal!)

If my personal finances ever recover I'd be in the market for an electric car.

The whole EV category has the potential to be highly disruptive to established way of doing things. I think energy breakthroughs will be akin to breakthroughs in semiconductor technology - smaller, faster, cheaper, cooler. It's already happening with solar, though the efficiency is still pretty abysmal it has improved and may improve more with more eyes, more effort, more focus.

Oh, and I noted RM AUCTIONS - an early car from 1884, capable of 38 mph, 20 miles on tank of water.

Shift happens.