E-bikes will not exist in 10 years time

.

I popped back in, only to see the consumer rows still continuing, so here's something else instead that you can argue about...er, debate.

 

The motion: E-bikes will not exist in 10 years time, and may never really catch on anyway.

 

Proposed by: flecc, Seconded by: The SMMT probably (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders).

 

Opening statement:

 

For a short while before World War 2 we had Autocycles and they were made post war as well up to around 1950. These were heavy 98cc bikes which were pedal started and assisted with some difficulty. Then the cyclemotor arrived and wiped them out almost overnight after a life of around 10 years. These were petrol engine kits for bikes, generally from 25cc to 50 cc, much lighter and easier to use, and they were very successful, reaching over one million on British roads. The arrival of the scooter (moped) in the form of Vespas and Lambrettas, more reliable, faster, better weather protection etc then rapidly wiped out the cyclemotors which had virtually vanished by 1960, again a 10 year life.

 

In 1991 the e-bike arrived, but little happened on that front until about 2000-2001 when some better designs started to attract interest which has continued to the present.

 

So why should they fail to become popular, or even disappear? Well, it's batteries. The holy grail of e-biking is a cheaper, reliable, lighter and long lasting battery, and e-bikes will never enjoy really widespread popularity until we have that.

 

But therein lies a problem. That vastly improved battery is also the holy grail of the electric scooter, so if it arrives for e-bikes, it also arrives for the electric scooter, so history can then repeat itself. The scene will be set for the scooter's advantages to wipe out the e-bike. Remember, they will have no road tax or congestion charge.

 

Post your agreeement, or if you don't agree that e-bikes will never catch on or may be wiped out, please give the reasons why you think that is so.

 

Discuss

.

Edited April 17, 200818 yr by flecc

.

I popped back in, only to see the consumer rows still continuing, so here's something else instead that you can argue about...er, debate.

 

The motion: E-bikes will not exist in 10 years time, and may never really catch on anyway.

 

Proposed by: flecc, Seconded by: The SMMT probably (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders).

 

Opening statement:

 

For a short while before World War 2 we had Autocycles and they were made post war as well up to around 1950. These were heavy 98cc bikes which were pedal started and assisted with some difficulty. Then the cyclemotor arrived and wiped them out almost overnight after a life of around 10 years. These were petrol engine kits for bikes, generally from 25cc to 50 cc, much lighter and easier to use, and they were very successful, reaching over one million on British roads. The arrival of the scooter (moped) in the form of Vespas and Lambrettas, more reliable, faster, better weather protection etc then rapidly wiped out the cyclemotors which had virtually vanished by 1960, again a 10 year life.

 

In 1991 the e-bike arrived, but little happened on that front until about 2000-2001 when some better designs started to attract interest which has continued to the present.

 

So why should they fail to become popular, or even disappear? Well, it's batteries. The holy grail of e-biking is a cheaper, reliable, lighter and long lasting battery, and e-bikes will never enjoy really widespread popularity until we have that.

 

But therein lies a problem. That vastly improved battery is also the holy grail of the electric scooter, so if it arrives for e-bikes, it also arrives for the electric scooter, so history can then repeat itself. The scene will be set for the scooter's advantages to wipe out the e-bike.

 

Post your agreeement, or if you don't agree that e-bikes will never catch on or may be wiped out, please give the reasons why you think that is so.

 

Discuss

.

 

I agree...It would appear that hot air is the next big thing.. Apparently you can run a whole e-bike community on the stuff, only at the expense of those on the receiving end..

 

 

BW

musicbooks

p.s. Good to see you back Flecc, if only temporarily:(

I think the biggest challenge come 2020 will be coping with a dwindling energy supply. Bar some major breakthrough in nuclear fusion or other energy source we will have to rely on significantly less oil and natural gas than we have today. Given the potential politicial and economic ramifications maybe the biggest difficulty will be getting hold of the technology and materials to build an electric bike anyway!

Hi Flecc,

 

The issue of where we would be allowed to ride is an important one and that, I suspect, will go some way towards determining the future of e-bikes. At the moment I ride a good number of miles on cycle paths and would like to continue to do so. This has been part of the reason why I (as a very keen motorcyclist) have not splashed out on a Vectrix; that and the exercise I get from an e-bike.

 

I have to say that I am looking very, very closely at the Suzuki Crosscage.

 

Cheers,

 

Django

It could be more like the clock

 

Direct comparisons are not always the best way to understand what the future could look like.

It could be more like the technical advances in time telling technology. Once there (skipping through thousands of years of various empires) was a clock at the railway station that gave the local time for the town; now everything has some form of accurate time telling thingy built in – time technology is now ubiquitous. I'm sat here now with a watch on my wrist that automatically sets itself from a radio time signal, my laptop automatically synchronises with the Microsoft time servers to always be correct, the clock on the wall, my dishwasher, tv... In fact the same observation can be made for the computer, only a few years ago the main man at IBM famously said he couldn’t see the world needing more than a handful of these expensive new fancy devices - now my living room contains four computers and my house over twice that number – sky box, mp3 player(s), pda…etc… my mobile phone contains more computing power than put Armstrong on the Moon.

I think what this could tell us about the future of eBikes is that yes they may be limited as a stand-alone recognisable niche technology today but in the future they will just be bikes. One of the features of the bike of the future will be power assist, it will be ubiquitous in bikes, just like today gears, LED lights (another marvel), advanced compounds for tyres etc are...

Ah, I hear you ask. Why will we have bikes in the future? Well I believe that there is something elemental and always enjoyable about a human and a bike, free in the air under (some of/all of) your own steam.

Welcome back (and it is a relief I can tell you).

 

I have to admit that I don't think that ebikes will ever catch on. As somebody put it in a letter to A to B magazine, most people think they are a solution to a problem that doesn't exist. Having tried one I would have to disagree and it has made a big difference to my commute.

 

I have tried scooters. I have a friend at work who live near me, she has a scooter and on the way to work we met at about the 8 miles mark. When I arrived at work, as I padlocked my bike she walk past me having just parked up her scooter around the corner. So it doesn't save any time.

 

Would I buy a more expensive, insured, kept on the road, difficult to charge, more difficult to maintain electric scooter? No chance. But I think I am the exception. The one sticking point would be the charging points. We are not a nation of garage owners so there would have to be some sort of infrastructure for the charging. Is that going to happen - perhaps. Or will it be a hydrogen infrastructure - unlikely.

 

I am still fairly convinced that batteries work best in hybrids, be it car or bicycle. You can always peddle your way home when the batteries run dry.

I think what this could tell us about the future of eBikes is that yes they may be limited as a stand-alone recognisable niche technology today but in the future they will just be bikes.

 

I think this is right. The distinction between bikes and scooters will become less obvious over the next few years. Look at this Matra MS-1 as an indication of the direction things could go. More info (in French) on their own website here.

 

Cheers,

 

Django

The motion: E-bikes will not exist in 10 years time, and may never really catch on anyway.

 

Sadly all technology has its day. Videotape was the bee's knees until DVD came along.

While I have no doubt that electric bikes are improving, the mass market is not there and probably never will be. It's hard to admit it (being an electric bike enthusiast) but I think many consider electric bikes merely expensive toys. For the use's of these "expensive toys" they are a means to an end - their own. Better battery technology is needed but this will (as you say flecc) boost the electric scooter market (very big in China, biggest growing world economy) effectively leaving the electric bike out in the cold.

But who knows what power sources will be available in ten or twenty years time. Every day there are storys of new ways to save and use energy - take LED's, low power needs, lots of light. It's no good looking at the big boys to solve the problems (they are too busy getting fat and rich), it's always the little guy, working away in his garden shed (on his niche project) that solves the improtant issues. It's never wise to temp providence

Hydrogen and solar are still in the running (in my book) and with a light weight bicycle powered by these technologies (further advanced) the future may be very rosy for the electric bike or the grandchild of the electric bike

For now electric bikes rule. I have every intention of keeping my own electric bike for many years. Ten? Twenty? I would like to think so

I know one thing. Modern reliance on fossil fuels is a folly that we must either break from soon or it will be taken from us. It's not a matter of "if" we will run out but "when"

.

Edited April 17, 200818 yr by Footie

It's an interesting question.

 

I would look at it from a slightly different angle. Whether they do catch on or not depends, in my opinion, not so much on how good they are as a product as on how well they are brought to market.

 

I think electric bikes are a good enough product to catch on. But at the moment they are not being marketed, distributed, stocked and supported well enough for the mass market. If a someone - a big company such as a bike manufacturer, retailer, consumer brand, or a serious investor - gets interested in the market, they could make a big difference, by investing the capital necessary to hold stocks, leveraging off an existing distribution/support network. If that doesn't happen then I would not be so optimistic.

 

I think the potential returns are there to get someone interested. There are decent gross margins which could repay investment, and I feel there is a big pool of potential users. So it could happen, but it hasn't yet!

I am sure that your analysis is right, flecc. Having gained the experience from converting my 'bent, it occurred to me that battery technology is now such that a lightweight electric motorcycle is fairly viable.

 

I've just come in from the workshop where I have been spraying the newly shot-blasted frame for my new project, an electric Yamaha RD50MX. The motor (a Mars ME0709) is sitting in a box by my desk, as is the contactor and a few other sundries. The 300 amp (!) Alltrax controller should be here in a few days. The initial battery pack will be a 48V, 40Ah, high rate discharge (200 amp max) LiFePO4 pack, which will allow a peak motor power of around 12 to 13hp, a lot more than the 4 or 5 hp of the original petrol engine. Total weight will be less than the 95kg of the original bike, I'm sure, with a range of perhaps 20 - 30 miles (I estimate that the motor will draw about 30 - 40 amps at 30mph on the level).

 

If it's possible for amateurs to build viable electric motorcycles (and there are quite a few about on the web), then I'm sure it won't be long before some bigger manufacturers jump on the bandwagon. If small electric motorcycles are classed as mopeds, then car drivers can ride them without an additional test. I'm certain that this would make such a machine an attractive alternative to an electrically assisted pedal cycle, with it's limited performance.

 

We will just have to wait and see.

 

Jeremy

There is a huge potential here in Denmark, because we have exellent bike lanes along most major roads and in towns.

 

Many bike paths shortcutting through parks and recreational areas are banned for the 30kph mopeds, so electric-only mopeds will have many drawbacks, not forgetting the mandatory insurance, registration and helmet.

 

Also driving a moped if you are old enough to drive a car or a bike is seen as a sign of social deroute, whereas riding a bike is a sign of a healthy lifestyle.

I think with the price of petrol rapidly going up and probably more congestion charging being introduced,the opportunity for electric bikes is looking good,judging by the demand for panasonic powered bikes most people want assistance with pedalling and not motorcycles.

Instead of relying solely on batteries, I'd like to think we could get transmitted energy (via lots of small solar, wind devices, or other novel way, e.g., generated from the ocean if you ride next to the beach, etc., or even the power grid when all else fails) roadside as we ride which would be ideal for the lightest of vehicles like a bicycle, and less ideal for a heavier scooter.

 

Of course, I have no idea how to do this. Hah. Energy picked up as we ride somehow.

 

I'd like to think we could get transmitted energy as we ride which would be ideal for the lightest of vehicles like a bicycle, and less ideal for a heavier scooter.

 

Of course, I have no idea how to do this. Hah. Energy picked up as we ride somehow.

 

That's possible with induction coils in both roadway and on the vehicle, and as you say. it's more suitable for the lightest vehicles. The problem is that it's very inefficient. Using a very high voltage improves the energy transfer but incurs more leakage losses in the underground circuits. Lowering the voltage to overcome that means very low energy transfer efficiency, catch 22, either way there's the large energy losses we can't afford.

.

I figure energy transfer could be more novel. Like my old hotwheel sets, a engineless car rides into a box, and is propelled out by rollers.

 

(I don't think anyone wants to ride into a box, and be propelled out at 60mph though ) I'm just saying ...the idea may come from thinking out of the box, so to speak. If instead of electricity, you could collect small amounts of hydrogen along your path, to run your fuel cell bike (not that that would work either!

naaa, 8-15 mnfrs right now. there will even be an electric circle in one day with the improving battery technologies. to think that all the shops and factories will cease to make any profit is a fantasy.

It depends on the culture and politics of a country as to weather the electric bike will survive and flourish. America is a definite no, the country is too big, and full of fatties (over weight and obese) who believe what ever they are told. China yes, they are already there in vast numbers:D , Britain as usual will sit on the fence with the wait and see attitude and then blindly follow America and miss out on all the advantages a new industries has to offer:rolleyes: , the rest of the UN seem to know a good thing when they see it:) , there the electric bike will move onward and upward in the next decade,The batteries technology is already here (lifepo4) and will only get lighter and better with time.There are a few generalizations here but you get the picture.

Edited April 18, 200818 yr by aaannndddyyy

e-bike future

 

I reckon Erik's got the main point. It will completely depend on the infrastucture available to use. If there were safe cycle routes everywhere, which in Cities would mean less space for larger vehicles (cars etc), then all forms of cycling including e-bikes would be more widely used.

 

If we keep same road system as now with not much better safety for cycling routes then the e-scoot will likely take over.

I'll accept that the electric bike might have a limited life when viewed purely as a means as transport - commuting, for example. However I think there will always be a market from people who want the exercise of cycling but just need a push up the hills to take the pain out of it. The question is whether that market will be big enough to sustain good suppliers, to keep prices at an acceptable level, and also to encourage advances in design.

Hi Flecc, good to see you posting again.

 

Interesting question. I think your analysis is convincing, furthermore the problem with 'electric bikes' ever catching on isn't just down to 'electrics' (ie the battery issue as you described) but also to the fact that they are 'bikes'. I reckon that pretty much precludes them from most people's consideration - most of us that ride ebikes already have a predisposition to ride bikes (for whatever reason) in the first place. Most of the population doesn't.

 

Bikerbob's suggestion that 'there will always be a market from people who want the exercise of cycling but just need a push up the hills to take the pain out of it' sounds right and suggests that the market will become increasingly niche and so smaller in scale. Also, given the manufacturing/delivery problems mentioned ad infinitum, I can see most manufacturers/dealers would abandon a market with such low returns.

 

That, of course, is if one leaves it all solely to the market. Government could incentivise ownership (tax relief etc), which might encourage uptake. Fuel pricing may also become an issue, but that affects ebikes too, as electricity bills go up.

 

Electric bikes are far too complicated (ie not easily repaired) for their own good, I can't ever see them ever displacing the mighty Honda C90 in terms of sales, let alone the automobile.

Predictions are always difficult, especially about the future.

 

At the moment it is all controlled, or distorted, depending on your point of view, by the legislation. Currently we have a market for below 15 mph devices, which work well as electric assist bikes. These are never going to be and are not intended to be, replacements for cars or motor bikes, so its a limited market, at least in today's world.

 

Abover 15 mph, electric bikes have to compete head on with motor cycles and motor scooters, and the public will always choose the petrol motors, at least in today's world.

 

What could change it is two things. One is if the legislation made a new category for 30 mph, zero emission, personal transport machines. Then electric bikes or electric scooters would overnight be the things everybody wanted.

 

The other thing is Russ's point - what happens when energy is treated as a scarce or valuable resource? Then everything changes. Its no good then debating whether e-bikes can compete with cars, because the whole concept of a car no longer makes sense. The whole idea of travelling large distances to work disappears. In fact, even the concept of a road starts coming under scrutiny. Its all very well imagining the future, but the lesson of history is that change does not come from the direction you are looking in.

 

Nick

I start from the premise that you're never going to get people out of the cars. They are too inbuilt - rightly or wrongly. But cars will change. Already Mercedes have an electric version of their Smart car. It is undergoing trials in London and other cities in the world. It has a (governed) maximum of 60 mph, it has a range of 70 miles - enough to get even me to my nearest Sainsbury's and back, just! - it does not pollute either by sound or emissions. It is not subject to either Road Tax or congestion charges - although I can't see that state of affairs lasting long when everybody has got one - and, unlike the Hydrogen fuel touted in today's headlines it requires no addition or change to the existing infrastructure. You would just plug it in alongside your e bike each night. Now there's a future!

I start from the premise that you're never going to get people out of the cars. They are too inbuilt - rightly or wrongly. But cars will change. Already Mercedes have an electric version of their Smart car. It is undergoing trials in London and other cities in the world. It has a (governed) maximum of 60 mph, it has a range of 70 miles - enough to get even me to my nearest Sainsbury's and back, just! - it does not pollute either by sound or emissions. It is not subject to either Road Tax or congestion charges - although I can't see that state of affairs lasting long when everybody has got one - and, unlike the Hydrogen fuel touted in today's headlines it requires no addition or change to the existing infrastructure. You would just plug it in alongside your e bike each night. Now there's a future!

 

How will the average person charge their electric smart car though? There has to be a charging infrastructure otherwise we are all going to be tripping up on those cables

By far the biggest influence on the question posed by this thread will, IMHO, be the one first raised by Russ - availability of cheap hydrocarbon based energy. All talk of cheap non-polluting alternatives to oil, beg massive unanswered (some would say 'unanswerable') questions. For example, hydrogen is not a primary energy source, it is simply a carrier - much like a battery - and damned expensive (inefficient in primary energy consumption terms) to produce - let alone to distribute in petrol station type fashion and which will require an entirely new infrastructure too. Likewise electricity itself; electric vehicles may not themselves pollute but the present balance of plant types required to generate the stuff certainly do. There is now a wide consensus that the global peak of all-fluids hydrocarbon energy production is less than about 10 years away, if it is not passed already. With over 85% of global transport still dependant on oil and burgeoning demand from aspiring Indias and Chinas, that has massive implications for our happy motoring/cheap-flight holidays lifestyle (It throws considerable and much needed light on the real reason for our insistence on invading other countries too, perish the thought)

 

This is big subject - VERY BIG - in both importance and complexity - and yet near total silence from the politicians.

 

My own opinion? - I think the pressure to use ALL energy more efficiently will mount inexorably - and principally through the pricing mechanism. So, I think the electric bike and its successors/derivatives etc have a seriously bright future; society in general and its cosy personal transportation assumptions less so.

I can't see 10 years into the future and the views here are interesting. The key at the moment is the lack of regulation and cost beyond the initial price and replacement batteries. As for others, motorbikes would be the nearest competitor but there's a big tax and insurance cost and no fitness reward.