I'm slowly coming around to the idea. The FiT is a huge incentive, my aim is to get on the tariff before the april deadline.
There is a guy in our company who has already had them fitted. This is an extract short email i recieved from a work colleague who works in the same dept.
"
Just been speaking to Ralph about his solar system, he was predicted to generate 3100kWh /year. So far he has generated 2800, his year started sept 2010. so he’s looking on target. He’s also had two cheques so far, he puts a meter reading in quarterly "
Thats £1342 per year. Although i don't yet know how much this installation cost, i do know someone spent £10500 for 3.8KWh system. On those figures It won't take that long to recoupe the original investment. Nowhere near the 25years stated above.
I will start getting quotes soon.
So let's look at the figures, using the example above:
£10,500 invested @ 3% compounded over 11 years = £14,534
Invested in FiT £1342 x 11 years = £14,762
11 year ROI
£10,500 invested @ 5% compounded over 15 years = £21,829
Invested in FiT £1342 x 16 years = £21,472
16 year ROI
£10,500 invested @ 8% compounded over 20 years = £48,940
£10,500 invested @ 4.35% compounded over 36 years = £48,631
Invested in FiT £1342 x 36 years = £48,312
36 years ROI (expected lifetime of the panels)
The above calculations do not take into account the costs of maintenance, increased insurance premiums and wear & tear, also the change in tarrif after the 25 year guarantee finishes is not taken into account, these will increase the ROI. Also increases in energy charges are not taken into account which would reduce ROI. Also where you live affects the amount of energy that can be produced from the sun, so these figures could be variable.
So as can be seen, the two critical figures are installation costs and investment rates. In my example at the lowest investment rates waiting 11 years just to break even is a big ask! With no access to your money and no guarantee that you will be in the house long enough to see any benefit. There are quite a few risks involved with that choice.
Also my roof space is not large enough to generate 3.8kWh, I would be looking at around 2kWh (see this page for examples
Solar PV Feed In Tariff Calculator ) making the scheme less appealing.
In 36 years time, I'll be 80 years old, assuming a safe (bank) rate of return @ 4.35%, the investment in panels and my £10.5K invested in a bank savings account will match each other, will I be bothered?
I think that this model is too simplified and could get complex if not using averages. Whilst the FiT scheme values are relatively fixed, investment returns can vary and money can be moved around into better or worse investments over long and short term periods. It still feels that the FiT scheme does not provide good value for money over it's lifetime. Installation costs would need to be halved before I could invest in PV.