Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldtom]

David Mitchell expressed his opinion of Theresa May like this:


However, if you want a better picture of what Theresa May is all about, you would do well to read through this piece:

https://adsinistramuk.wordpress.com/2018/10/07/these-guilty-feet-may-have-no-rhythm-but-shes-leading-us-a-merry-dance/?fbclid=IwAR0c4PAl8tBaAfPUnFVI5hr_VATjMr5mzsFocj_JmYk1CfOnBeYMrjzCn4Y

Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

For those who have not heard Margaret Beckett's carefully worded speech about May's deal in the Commons, a YouTube video clip link is attached. It's about quarter of an hour long and deserves your attention:

watch

Tom

Excellent speech, "the biggest surrender of Sovereignty" describes May's plan very well indeed.
That plan should be renamed
The 1066 surrender reprised: the continent strikes back

 

[flecc]

I very recently posted that some newsmen believed a plan B was being held in the background by Therersa May in case of her deal being refused.

Now just 13 hours ago Amber Rudd has become the first cabinet minister to raise plan B as a possibility, her comments opening a Norway + as a possibility.
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[oldgroaner]

I very recently posted that some newsmen believed a plan B was being held in the background by Therersa May in case of her deal being refused.

Now just 13 hours ago Amber Rudd has become the first cabinet minister to raise plan B as a possibility, her comments opening a Norway + as a possibility.
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Indeed you did, what else has the Crystal ball revealed?
Just for a moment there I could picture Amber Rudd as Baldrick "I have a cunning plan"

However, from what we have seen neither Norway or their other EFTA partners hold us as suitable candidates , and how can we blame them?

How ironic that we have effectively become the first Homeless Major nation in modern times, pariahs by our own hands.

So we have Saatchi and Amber Rudd so far, how many more will try their luck?

 

[Danidl]

I very recently posted that some newsmen believed a plan B was being held in the background by Therersa May in case of her deal being refused.

Now just 13 hours ago Amber Rudd has become the first cabinet minister to raise plan B as a possibility, her comments opening a Norway + as a possibility.
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I do not believe there is any plan B . Or rather, the best the UK can hope for is an extension on Article 50 for an period of time. The judgement from the ECJ on Tuesday is critical.
Were the May plan,with its manifest flaws passed, it would allow a breathing space. That would be it's major merit.

 

[flecc]

So we have Saatchi and Amber Rudd so far, how many more will try their luck?

The purpose of such announcements by peripheral figures is often to act as a softening up process, getting those who will be affected used to the possibility before an actual announcement.

That's why I think a cabinet minister saying this has some significance, but her forecast option not necessarily the one.

It's rather like the way councils forecast something like a 14% council tax rise to trigger a protest, then announce it will only be 7%, placating everyone. Of course 7% was all that was intended in the first instance, but easier to get accepted by subterfuge.

Edit: P.S.
As Danidl posted above for example, alarm with Norway + threat, then just announce the extension.
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[oldgroaner]

No hypocrisy, I have explained this to you before but you seem to ignore that, so I'll repeat it once again, this time in detail.

Look back through the occasions when I've posted an agree with OT or OG and you'll see those are largely the posts that do not include their extreme responses. The "agree" is merely to a point they are making. I make a real effort to avoid posting an agree when anyone is being offensive and they lose very many agrees from me on those grounds. Therefore I am not supporting them being offensive and they both know that since I've posted as such before in reply to you.

Now to deal with why I don't post criticising their bad behaviour when they post as such to others. It's simply a matter of good manners, their posts to others being none of my business since I'm not an administrator. It only becomes my business if OT or OG posted in that manner at me, but they never have done. Therefore there cannot be any justification in my attacking their manner of posting to others. How they do that is up to them and if the administrators allow it, any adverse comment from me would also be unjustifed interference with their right to run the site as they see fit. In fact the administrator whose site this is knows from previous private discussion that there are times when I'd take a tougher line than him, but it's not for me to take that line in the forum.
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Just a small point, I don't recall calling anyone racist xenophobic or scum, I do recall referring to certain individuals as idiots, usually in response to their initial remarks.
Quite often the individual most often complaining, had in fact simply gone into victim mode and assumed himself under attack and launched an abusive attack that I had responded to.
I must say that in identifying them in the way I have shows a tendency to generosity.

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[Woosh]

I do not believe there is any plan B . Or rather, the best the UK can hope for is an extension on Article 50 for an period of time. The judgement from the ECJ on Tuesday is critical.
Were the May plan,with its manifest flaws passed, it would allow a breathing space. That would be it's major merit.

I don't know if TM's plan would allow only a breathing space, I would have thought that the plan is workable given the future direction of brexit. Brexit needs to manage regulation divergence. Even if the UK stays in the CU in the short term, over time, opportunities outside the EU will arise, Trans Pacific, Africa, North America etc, a long term solution for NI will need to be found for when the UK leaves the CU. Like it or loathe it, the ROI will need to make compromises, the backstop is meant to be temporary.

 

[oldgroaner]

There is no depth Conservatives won't sink to
In the Irish Publication "The Journal
"
Tory MP suggests using possible 'no-deal' food shortages to force Ireland to drop the backstop
Ireland would be hit hard in the event of a no-deal Brexit; a Brexiteer has argued this should be used as leverage to get a better deal.
A government report, leaked to the Times of London, has indicated that there could be food shortages in Ireland in a no-deal Brexit scenario, and the economic impact on Ireland would be worse than in the UK.
Tory MP Priti Patel has told the paper that these warnings should have been used as leverage against Ireland to encourage them to drop the backstop.

“This paper appears to show the government were well aware Ireland will face significant issues in a no-deal scenario. Why hasn’t this point been pressed home during negotiations? There is still time to go back to Brussels and get a better deal.”

Patel resigned as International Development Secretary last November after holding 12 meetings with Israeli groups and officials outside the proper protocol.

Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon reacted to the story, saying that “The sheer moral bankruptcy of the Tory Brexiteers is on full display today.”

 

[Woosh]

“The sheer moral bankruptcy of the Tory Brexiteers is on full display today.”

totally.

 

[flecc]

I do recall referring to certain individuals as idiots,

Well, recipients do tend to think that's abusive, regardless of how much they might have provoked that response.
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[Danidl]

There is no depth Conservatives won't sink to
In the Irish Publication "The Journal
"
Tory MP suggests using possible 'no-deal' food shortages to force Ireland to drop the backstop
Ireland would be hit hard in the event of a no-deal Brexit; a Brexiteer has argued this should be used as leverage to get a better deal.
A government report, leaked to the Times of London, has indicated that there could be food shortages in Ireland in a no-deal Brexit scenario, and the economic impact on Ireland would be worse than in the UK.
Tory MP Priti Patel has told the paper that these warnings should have been used as leverage against Ireland to encourage them to drop the backstop.

“This paper appears to show the government were well aware Ireland will face significant issues in a no-deal scenario. Why hasn’t this point been pressed home during negotiations? There is still time to go back to Brussels and get a better deal.”

Patel resigned as International Development Secretary last November after holding 12 meetings with Israeli groups and officials outside the proper protocol.

Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon reacted to the story, saying that “The sheer moral bankruptcy of the Tory Brexiteers is on full display today.”

The food problem Ireland will face is totally different than that the UK might face. It is we will have a glut of Cheese,beef, unprocessed NI milk,mushrooms and a market hungry for them . Would one Prefer to be in a position of having money and no food or food and no money?.
Anyway, the Brexit date is actually optimum.. March is the time of year when these stocks are at their lowest and the animal growing season is just beginning.

 

[flecc]

The food problem Ireland will face is totally different than that the UK might face. It is we will have a glut of Cheese,beef, unprocessed NI milk,mushrooms

At least all those who used a familial relationship to gain an Irish passport need not go short of food after hard Brexit. Maybe eating tourism as well.
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[Danidl]

In an earlier post I described an interview at the prefecture where an English lass was being asked to provide proof of resources before getting a carte de sejour. She was being asked as a citizen of an EU country.

I suspect that the Brexit debacle was also present in those questions. I had occasion some few years ago to go to the medical social services offices in Pontivy, for reclaims on some medical expenses. The EC111 card would have been in play. My engagement with the ladies in that office could not have been more cordial. Perhaps they wanted to improve their English language skills... .

 

[Danidl]

I don't know if TM's plan would allow only a breathing space, I would have thought that the plan is workable given the future direction of brexit. Brexit needs to manage regulation divergence. Even if the UK stays in the CU in the short term, over time, opportunities outside the EU will arise, Trans Pacific, Africa, North America etc, a long term solution for NI will need to be found for when the UK leaves the CU. Like it or loathe it, the ROI will need to make compromises, the backstop is meant to be temporary.

I do agree the Backstop is intended as a temporary measure,up until something better is put in place.
We have actually just today had confirmation that NI needs to be treated differently than mainland UK in matters agricultural. .. a case of an infectious disease was found in a NI farm, isolated to a single animal. The protocol is very strict and effective. . Agriculture is a vital strategic interest to Ireland both North and South.

 

[Danidl]

At least all those who used a familial relationship to gain an Irish passport need not go short of food after hard Brexit. Maybe eating tourism as well.
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... Absolutely. In fairness it has been the growth of tourism, which has improved the quality of food in Irish restaurants. It used to be pretty dire.
As relatives in Co.Kerry would tell me... (West Kerry is beautiful).. you can't eat the scenery.

 

[oldgroaner]

I don't know if TM's plan would allow only a breathing space, I would have thought that the plan is workable given the future direction of brexit. Brexit needs to manage regulation divergence. Even if the UK stays in the CU in the short term, over time, opportunities outside the EU will arise, Trans Pacific, Africa, North America etc, a long term solution for NI will need to be found for when the UK leaves the CU. Like it or loathe it, the ROI will need to make compromises, the backstop is meant to be temporary.

Lets focus on this aspect of Brexit
The number of Opportunities are not the problem
The problems are far worse than that.

1. We have demonstrated an appallingly poor performance when it comes to international negotiations, so to get favorable trade deals will be like knitting Fog and drag on for years
   
2. We lack capable companies willing to take risks with design manufacturing and supply of modern products made with modern techniques and supported by modern supply chains
3. It's a far better bet to invest in the far east for a quick low risk return, and our investor class are not people you could accuse of Patriotism

Basically we are a third world nation with first world notions of it's own superiority.
The sooner we get back into the EU the sooner we limit the damage we have done to our future

 

[oldgroaner]

At least all those who used a familial relationship to gain an Irish passport need not go short of food after hard Brexit. Maybe eating tourism as well.
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The Red Cross parcel rides again eh, flecc?

 

[oldgroaner]

Well, recipients do tend to think that's abusive, regardless of how much they might have provoked that response.
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Since I usually precede the remark with wording to the effect of "Are you trying to look like an idiot?" it does seem to offer them an opt out clause where they don't have to accept the description... all very democratic really

 

[flecc]

Since I usually precede the remark with wording to the effect of "Are you trying to look like an idiot?"

A subtlety that is often missed I fear.
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