Brexit, for once some facts.

[flecc]

The main issue is the dirty tactics on both sides, the Tories whipped up Labour anti semitism and Labour whipped up the Windrush scandal. It must have backfired a little, the result is a net gain for the LibDems and Greens.

Exactly. The outcome was no change, the country divided Labour/Tory as before, just as it is divided on Brexit. The recovery of the LibDems is bad news for Brexiters though, part of the general shift away from the referendum outcome.
.

 

[oldtom]

This just in from the 52%
David Campbell Bannerman MEP

That is far too much bullshine from a devout racist and fascist on a Saturday morning!

He may be one of your heroes Mister but he is an enemy of the people in my eyes.

Tom

 

[Zlatan]

That is far too much bullshine from a devout racist and fascist on a Saturday morning!

He may be one of your heroes Mister but he is an enemy of the people in my eyes.

Tom

Errr.like all tories...all royalists...all Blairites...anyone with anything good to say about May...all leavers...
You are hardly selective with your alienation.
The speech quoted was actually very good..
Tom, you do seem to hate a lot of people.

Tillson
The problem with Corbyn/ Labour/ EU is actually worse than him not been keen on EU. He has stated quite often he would nationalise some industries. He cant, its against EU monopoly rules. To carry out policies he desires he needs to leave EU. Sort of negates OG's argument about leaving is for greedy tories. Its why we are in such a mess.
Corbyn needs to be more politically aware, diplomatic.....and lie..Sort out the Semitic stance, take up a leave policy...Get in power...and then do what he wants. Its how tories have done it for years. Its why he wont get in under his current policies.

 

[daveboy]

I wouldn't read too much into the local election results when the turn out
was only about 20% in some areas.
The "youth vote" didn't bother and they are usually Labour voters.
If Labour ever get in power again the first thing they should do
is make voting more attractive by giving people who vote a discount on
their council tax (or student loan).

 

[Danidl]

This just in from the 52%:

"We’ve had the House of Lords inflicting yet more defeats on the Government’s EU Withdrawal Bill; there’s been all the relentless drama about staying in the Customs Union, or over the Byzantine and unworkable Customs Partnership, or problems with the Irish border being elevated to Biblical significance (despite workable technological solutions); and there have been questions raised over our new immigration policy or the seeming messiness of the withdrawal negotiations. So we Brexiteers could be forgiven for sinking into what I call ‘Brexit Blues’ – even questioning whether Brexit will ever be delivered at all and resorting to dangerous talk of ‘if’ not ‘when’.

OK, call me an optimistic person: I was involved in the Northern Ireland Peace Process and believed we could do that – even when I heard the Canary Wharf bomb go off as I celebrated my new Special Adviser role. I predicted too (on Bloomberg TV) that David Cameron would win the election in 2015 (as very similar to 1992) when so many thought it would be lost. I believed we could and would win the EU referendum if we played it right, when others thought it impossible. I even thought Trump might win.

So what I would ask of you is this: please don’t be disheartened and don’t ever say Brexit will not happen. Ban any defeatist talk of ‘if’ not ‘when’. Tell the world with resolve that, whatever it takes, we will deliver Brexit.

We haven’t come all this way, come so close, achieved so much against what we now see to be a shamelessly rotten establishment rife with fifth columnists intent on leaving the gates open for an advancing EU superstate.

So let’s try looking at the bright side. This was the gist of a speech I made at my ECR Information Reception in Westminster last week with men of the moment, Lord Callanan the Brexit Minister in the thick of the legislation in the Lords, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, Chairman of the European Research Group, speaking alongside me. This is information I have gleaned from the ‘other side’ as an MEP in the midst of all of this.

First, the negotiations are actually going far better than everyone thinks. Even the European Parliament’s own federalist negotiator, Guy Verhofstadt, has said that ‘80% of the deal is done’. Whilst there is a lot of heat about the Customs Union in the UK, the EU (to be fair) is quietly content to pursue a free trade agreement with us. Not only that, they are already offering us what some call a ‘CETA++’ deal based on the Canadian trade deal CETA or what I term ‘SuperCanada’.

Take it from someone who has spent nine years on the European Parliament’s Trade Committee, this is not insignificant. They are offering us the biggest, deepest, best deal they’ve ever done. The first ‘+’ to CETA is that they are proposing a 100% tariff- and 100% quota-free deal with the UK. Before saying this is insignificant, ask the Australians and New Zealanders: they are pursuing a similar trade deal with the EU based on CETA but they are not getting 100% tariff- or quota-free access. Canada is only 92% tariff-free in agriculture.

The second ‘+’ being offered on top of CETA is services. OK, the third ‘+’ of deeper services and financial services does need adding, but the EU is basically accepting the UK’s ‘red lines’: Mr Barnier said exactly this in our Strasbourg debate in March: no Single Market, no Customs Union, no ECJ. That means a trade deal, and that means CETA++/SuperCanada.

Let’s say to those ‘Stay in a customs union at all costs’ headbangers who think we must slavishly stay in the Customs Union: look, we are now free after 45 years’ experience of the Customs Union to examine exactly what it means to our people and our economy, and we have this amazing opportunity to leave it well behind.

Tell them that a SuperCanada deal will offer us the best of a customs union – that is a Free Trade area (100% no tariffs/quotas) with the EU – but without its downsides: we can do our own global trade deals and set our own tariffs, we will not be a de facto ‘rule-taker’, and can cut the cost of tariffs (for tariffs read taxes).

It is stunning that 90% of predicted growth in the world in the next ten to fifteen years will come from outside the EU, whilst the EU’s share of UK exports is due to fall from the two thirds when we joined the EEC to less than a third (30%) by 2050.

And why do so many think the Customs Union is such a benign thing? The Customs Union means nearly 20,000 taxes (19,753 is the Most Favoured Nation base) that hurt the poor within the Customs Union from protectionist pricing; and hurt the poor in developing countries outside that are supplying the products.

Many of these taxes are substantial: 104% on granulated sugar, 60% on Vietnamese shoes, 50% on New Zealand lamb, 12% on both women’s dresses and men’s T-shirts, 20% on orange juice and on bananas (which they produce in Spain, but which we don’t in the UK, so could scrap the EU tariff).

Labour’s support for this is totally hypocritical and shamelessly capitalist – hardly consistent with Mr Corbyn’s core Marxist beliefs.

This is actually ‘Corn Laws II’ – with the Left supporting the capitalist producers, not the poor consumers. There is still even an EU tariff on bread (wheat/cereals) today of 30%. Several items common in foodbanks – cereals, squash and sugar, for example – have high tariffs.

If we can expose Labour hypocrisy through a campaign, the backlash may well put their selfish and illogical position under real pressure, especially in the many Labour constituencies that backed Brexit. Many of these wrecking amendments to the Brexit legislation are more political in effect than legally enforceable in any case. For example, demanding a report looking at attempts to stay in a Customs Union is not a commitment to stay in a Customs Union. So, go to it!

Finally, we hear too little of how much the EU needs a deal with us. On leaving, the UK will become the largest single market for the EU27 – bigger than Japan, the USA and China.

There are encouraging signs that EU partners are beginning to panic about the prospect of no deal. 1.5 million German jobs depend on the UK market, and nearly a quarter of all EU trade. Recently, the boss of BMW, Ian Robertson, called for a Free Trade Agreement to offer ‘seamless trade’, mindful of £2.4 billion of car sales to UK a year.

Trade deals are not charitable. They are about protecting and advancing national and business interests. The UK is the fifth largest economy in the world and second largest world importer after the USA. Our market is bigger than the Indian, Russian and French markets. Our goods deficit is £75 billion a year, equivalent alone to the entire economy of Bulgaria or Uruguay. Add to that access to the largest financial centre in the world – London – where the claimed flood of lost City jobs has turned out to be a mere trickle, and Goldman Sachs required to apologise for doom-mongering.

So, fellow Brexiteers, let’s be confident, positive and even more determined. We are genuinely getting there. Even George Osborne admits Brexit will happen.

Don’t feed extremist Remoaners by conceding any sense of weakness or concern. We’re going to deliver Brexit, and we’re going to make a remarkable success out of it. So let’s back our Government and our Prime Minister – and get the job done."

David Campbell Bannerman MEP

Well OJ thank you for sharing that tome from a committed brekiteer with us. Mr Bannerman the once and perhaps future king of UKIP, currently operating under the flag of convienance of the conservative party. It is one of those great rallying the troops speeches, that are needed to prevent a rout.
In that rambling address, he makes reference to his role as a special advisor to what would become the Good Friday Agreement on Northern Ireland. Strange that he was not involved in it when it was actually brought to a conclusion, a year after he no longer was involved. Anyone engaged in the process, knows that it was only at the end stages, that any progress was made.
He has made a great play about the inside information he is obtaining from his European parliament contacts. Now I would ask you to suspend disbelief and ask yourself the logical question why would any group in the EU provide the UKIP, generally viewed as a pariah group, with any such information?. The only information to which he would be privy would be that provided in the public briefing and reports by Mr Barnier.

 

[OxygenJames]

 

[oldgroaner]

Once again Zlatan you come out with
More rubbish, the German railways are nationalised, but don't let facts bother you

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[Woosh]

More rubbish, the German railways are nationalised, but don't let facts bother you

it was owned by German government well before Germany joined the EU and never privatised. It's not the same as JC's plan to buy the rail franchises when they come to renewals.
Although it is technically possible for a socialist government to renationalise water, energy, phone, post, rail etc.. they have to be negotiated with the EU.
It is much easier to give more teeth to Ofwat, Ofcom etc.. to do their job.

 

[flecc]

This just in from the 52%:

"We’ve had the House of Lords inflicting yet more defeats on the Government’s EU Withdrawal Bill; there’s been all the relentless drama about staying in the Customs Union, or over the Byzantine and unworkable Customs Partnership, or problems with the Irish border being elevated to Biblical significance (despite workable technological solutions); and there have been questions raised over our new immigration policy or the seeming messiness of the withdrawal negotiations. So we Brexiteers could be forgiven for sinking into what I call ‘Brexit Blues’ – even questioning whether Brexit will ever be delivered at all and resorting to dangerous talk of ‘if’ not ‘when’.

OK, call me an optimistic person: I was involved in the Northern Ireland Peace Process and believed we could do that – even when I heard the Canary Wharf bomb go off as I celebrated my new Special Adviser role. I predicted too (on Bloomberg TV) that David Cameron would win the election in 2015 (as very similar to 1992) when so many thought it would be lost. I believed we could and would win the EU referendum if we played it right, when others thought it impossible. I even thought Trump might win.

So what I would ask of you is this: please don’t be disheartened and don’t ever say Brexit will not happen. Ban any defeatist talk of ‘if’ not ‘when’. Tell the world with resolve that, whatever it takes, we will deliver Brexit.

We haven’t come all this way, come so close, achieved so much against what we now see to be a shamelessly rotten establishment rife with fifth columnists intent on leaving the gates open for an advancing EU superstate.

So let’s try looking at the bright side. This was the gist of a speech I made at my ECR Information Reception in Westminster last week with men of the moment, Lord Callanan the Brexit Minister in the thick of the legislation in the Lords, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, Chairman of the European Research Group, speaking alongside me. This is information I have gleaned from the ‘other side’ as an MEP in the midst of all of this.

First, the negotiations are actually going far better than everyone thinks. Even the European Parliament’s own federalist negotiator, Guy Verhofstadt, has said that ‘80% of the deal is done’. Whilst there is a lot of heat about the Customs Union in the UK, the EU (to be fair) is quietly content to pursue a free trade agreement with us. Not only that, they are already offering us what some call a ‘CETA++’ deal based on the Canadian trade deal CETA or what I term ‘SuperCanada’.

Take it from someone who has spent nine years on the European Parliament’s Trade Committee, this is not insignificant. They are offering us the biggest, deepest, best deal they’ve ever done. The first ‘+’ to CETA is that they are proposing a 100% tariff- and 100% quota-free deal with the UK. Before saying this is insignificant, ask the Australians and New Zealanders: they are pursuing a similar trade deal with the EU based on CETA but they are not getting 100% tariff- or quota-free access. Canada is only 92% tariff-free in agriculture.

The second ‘+’ being offered on top of CETA is services. OK, the third ‘+’ of deeper services and financial services does need adding, but the EU is basically accepting the UK’s ‘red lines’: Mr Barnier said exactly this in our Strasbourg debate in March: no Single Market, no Customs Union, no ECJ. That means a trade deal, and that means CETA++/SuperCanada.

Let’s say to those ‘Stay in a customs union at all costs’ headbangers who think we must slavishly stay in the Customs Union: look, we are now free after 45 years’ experience of the Customs Union to examine exactly what it means to our people and our economy, and we have this amazing opportunity to leave it well behind.

Tell them that a SuperCanada deal will offer us the best of a customs union – that is a Free Trade area (100% no tariffs/quotas) with the EU – but without its downsides: we can do our own global trade deals and set our own tariffs, we will not be a de facto ‘rule-taker’, and can cut the cost of tariffs (for tariffs read taxes).

It is stunning that 90% of predicted growth in the world in the next ten to fifteen years will come from outside the EU, whilst the EU’s share of UK exports is due to fall from the two thirds when we joined the EEC to less than a third (30%) by 2050.

And why do so many think the Customs Union is such a benign thing? The Customs Union means nearly 20,000 taxes (19,753 is the Most Favoured Nation base) that hurt the poor within the Customs Union from protectionist pricing; and hurt the poor in developing countries outside that are supplying the products.

Many of these taxes are substantial: 104% on granulated sugar, 60% on Vietnamese shoes, 50% on New Zealand lamb, 12% on both women’s dresses and men’s T-shirts, 20% on orange juice and on bananas (which they produce in Spain, but which we don’t in the UK, so could scrap the EU tariff).

Labour’s support for this is totally hypocritical and shamelessly capitalist – hardly consistent with Mr Corbyn’s core Marxist beliefs.

This is actually ‘Corn Laws II’ – with the Left supporting the capitalist producers, not the poor consumers. There is still even an EU tariff on bread (wheat/cereals) today of 30%. Several items common in foodbanks – cereals, squash and sugar, for example – have high tariffs.

If we can expose Labour hypocrisy through a campaign, the backlash may well put their selfish and illogical position under real pressure, especially in the many Labour constituencies that backed Brexit. Many of these wrecking amendments to the Brexit legislation are more political in effect than legally enforceable in any case. For example, demanding a report looking at attempts to stay in a Customs Union is not a commitment to stay in a Customs Union. So, go to it!

Finally, we hear too little of how much the EU needs a deal with us. On leaving, the UK will become the largest single market for the EU27 – bigger than Japan, the USA and China.

There are encouraging signs that EU partners are beginning to panic about the prospect of no deal. 1.5 million German jobs depend on the UK market, and nearly a quarter of all EU trade. Recently, the boss of BMW, Ian Robertson, called for a Free Trade Agreement to offer ‘seamless trade’, mindful of £2.4 billion of car sales to UK a year.

Trade deals are not charitable. They are about protecting and advancing national and business interests. The UK is the fifth largest economy in the world and second largest world importer after the USA. Our market is bigger than the Indian, Russian and French markets. Our goods deficit is £75 billion a year, equivalent alone to the entire economy of Bulgaria or Uruguay. Add to that access to the largest financial centre in the world – London – where the claimed flood of lost City jobs has turned out to be a mere trickle, and Goldman Sachs required to apologise for doom-mongering.

So, fellow Brexiteers, let’s be confident, positive and even more determined. We are genuinely getting there. Even George Osborne admits Brexit will happen.

Don’t feed extremist Remoaners by conceding any sense of weakness or concern. We’re going to deliver Brexit, and we’re going to make a remarkable success out of it. So let’s back our Government and our Prime Minister – and get the job done."

David Campbell Bannerman MEP

Completely based on a deliberate lie, the lie that we need to be out of the EU to trade worldwide.

The only thing that stops us trading worldwide from within the EU is incompetence, nothing else, here's the proofs:

1) Our successful companies do trade worldwide, we supply Rolls Royce jet engines, numerous aircraft components, satellites, armaments and some other items to many countries outside the EU.

2) Germany in the EU supplies Mercedes, Bosch, Siemens et al worldwide. Their Continental Tyre company alone makes and sells some 150 million car and truck tyres worldwide each year

3) France in the EU has long traded worldwide with aircraft and notably Renault who are also based in other countries, the USA, India and Australia to name just three key markets.

4) Sweden in the EU is hugely successful in trading worldwide outside the EU. IKEA are in a huge number of countries worldwide, even the most difficult markets like Japan and China. Volvo are also a worldwide trader, their trucks in particular, and they've recently acquired the Renault-Mack truck company in the USA to expand that business. And in trucks Scania is also present far outside of the EU.

5) Denmark in the EU sells Lego everywhere throughout the world and it's now the world's largest toy company, surpassing the previous largest, Mattel.

6) Italy also with their products, in almost every country worldwide one sees Gucci, Versace, Armani, Dolce & Gabbana, Prada, Diesel et al. And not just fashion, their financial institutions and high tech companies are everywhere in global trading.

7) Airbus, a quintessentially EU company, is the world's largest maker of airliners delivered everywhere. They are assembled from modules made by France, the UK, Germany and Spain.

These and a number of other EU countries do this in three ways. By making products superior enough to be in demand. By setting up manufacturing in other countries outside the EU. By taking over companies in countries outside the EU. All three methods bring externally earned profit back into their countries and into the EU.

So please don't believe the Brexiters like Oxygen James saying that we can't trade worldwide when in the EU, its single market and its customs union.

Just like Boris Johnson during the Referendum campaign, they are demonstrably lying as my examples and more prove.

We aren't doing that trade because we just aren't good enough, and leaving the EU won't magically make us better.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

I would rather they get re elected with a big majority and catch the reaction when Brexit proves disastrous

'Slaughtered'? Sure. Slaughtered. Right. Dream on.

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[oldgroaner]

But negotiable

it was owned by German government well before Germany joined the EU and never privatised. It's not the same as JC's plan to buy the rail franchises when they come to renewals.
Although it is technically possible for a socialist government to renationalise water, energy, phone, post, rail etc.. they have to be negotiated with the EU.
It is much easier to give more teeth to Ofwat, Ofcom etc.. to do their job.

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[Woosh]

"Leaked paper reveals backup proposal to avoid hard land border with Ireland"

about time too.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/04/irish-border-backup-plan-suggests-checks-ports-airports-brexit

 

[Zlatan]

Once again Zlatan you come out with
More rubbish, the German railways are nationalised, but don't let facts bother you

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

Negotiable like Brexit is no doubt...

"While the EU does not overtly ban public ownership, or take any position on the legal formation of companies within its member states, the very design of the single market and the rules which govern it can instead be seen as operating to do exactly that: if the single market is founded on the principle that competition remains the most efficient method of economic governance, then state ownership would certainly seem to be in contravention of its philosophy, if not its rules."

Mass nationalisation of order Corbyn wants would never pass free and open trade rules for remaining 27 members. Coorbyn knows it and its why he would leave.
There is no point trying to convince me I,m wrong...its Corbyn you need to speak to. If you,d listened to his speeches you,d know he plans to leave for this very reason..
If labour want to get in power they need to ditch Corbyn, campaign on remaining, water down nationalisation programme and start again with defence policy ( which is a shambles) ( And sack Abbott)

 

[Danidl]

"Leaked paper reveals backup proposal to avoid hard land border with Ireland"

about time too.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/04/irish-border-backup-plan-suggests-checks-ports-airports-brexit

That was an interesting comment ascribed to Mr Barnier

 

[Woosh]

That was an interesting comment ascribed to Mr Barnier

The backstop position in the Irish border issue must assume the worst case scenario: no deal brexit. Additional sea port checks are the easiest and most cost effective solution.

 

[Danidl]

The backstop position in the Irish border issue must assume the worst case scenario: no deal brexit. Additional sea port checks are the easiest and most cost effective solution.

Hang on a "no deal "brexit would mean hard border , because by definition a no deal means that neither side can trust the other. What is being suggested in this paper is a deal , with certain concessions, probably a special status Irish land area deal on agricultural products , and with some policing at the ports of Larne , Liverpool , Dublin and Rosslare.
The backdrop proposal is just that a proposal, signed at the behest of onr who might soon be a discredited leader, and without international treaty obligation.

 

[Woosh]

Hang on a "no deal "brexit would mean hard border

any deal must include a solution for the Irish border, there won't be a need for a backstop.
In case of no deal brexit, the proposed sea port checks will allow FOM within the isle of Ireland, better than a hard border.
There may be a case for NI to run a second referendum on the backstop solution to save face for the DUP.

 

[Danidl]

any deal must include a solution for the Irish border, there won't be a need for a backstop.
In case of no deal brexit, the proposed sea port checks will allow FOM within the isle of Ireland, better than a hard border.
There may be a case for NI to run a second referendum on the backstop solution to save face for the DUP.

Woosh ... It may escape you but" no deal " means "no deal ", "any deal " is not "no deal."
Any deal would include the backstop arrangement, but that would not be the case in a no deal....
This is not semantics, it is fact.
Snowballs and hell have a better chance than such a referendum , for which there is no precedence, no body capable of organising it , no government . No rational reason to have one. What NI might do with would be a general election. , And there might well be a change of personnel for the ministry positions, including that of first minister....

 

[Woosh]

"any deal " is not "no deal."

Are you not splitting hair here?
In the current climate, TM can only offer a binary choice, hard brexit as backstop while hoping for a soft brexit.
If I could hazard a guess, the EU wants it too.

 

[oldtom]

If Labour ever get in power again the first thing they should do
is make voting more attractive by giving people who vote a discount on
their council tax (or student loan).

I like the way you think......only trouble is that the other parties might see that as bribery which probably breaks some rule or other in the T&C.

Tom